Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 8

Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's week 8! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obvioulsy, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot.

It was a killer week for DFSR's projection system. The optimal lineup of Kirk Cousins, Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Deandre Hopkins, Calvin Johnson, Jordan Reed, Adam Vinataeri, and Rams Defense put up 184.5 FanDuel Points. Needless to say, we're all feeling pretty good around here!

I’ve touched on this before, but touchdowns are a very volatile statistic in DFS. They’re tough to predict and often account for much of the variance in game-to-game fantasy output. Predicting TDs accurately will always be a crap-shoot with most non-QBs less than a 50/50 bet to reach the end zone, but there are a few ways to make sure you’re maximizing your lineup’s TD potential.

Volume
Simply put, the more a player touches the ball, the more likely it is he’ll reach the end zone. Unpredictable things happen all the time in the NFL: defenders slip, or just plan whiff on tackles. The more a player has the ball in his hands, the more likely he is to benefit from these happenstance occurrences.

Red Zone Work
Two thirds of passing TDs and nearly 90 percent of rushing TDs occur on plays that start inside the red zone. The players that see their number called in the red zone most frequently are the ones with the greatest TD potential.

High Vegas Totals
Games with high Vegas totals are where the most scoring will occur. Selecting players from these games will increase your TD upside. But remember to check a player’s percentage of workload on red zone workload stats first. A high Vegas total doesn’t mean as much if the player isn’t normally involved with a team’s scoring plays.

Deep Targets
Deep targets are the hardest to rely on, but they’re high-value fantasy targets. If a player is adept at getting open deep, all it takes is one accurate pass to hit pay dirt.

Now let’s get in to the Week 8 plays.

QUARTERBACK

Andy Dalton - FD 8100 DK 6000
Opponent- PIT
Dalton will face a Steelers defense allowing 293 passing yards per game, fifth-most in the NFL. The Steelers are also strong against the run, allowing the sixth fewest rushing yards per game in the league, so Cincinnati’s game plan will likely revolve around its aerial attack. Dalton is the fantasy QB2 on the year and his price has not caught up to that level of production.

Philip Rivers - FD 8500 DK 6600
Opponent- BAL
The NFL’s leader in passing yards per game, Rivers gets to take on a Ravens defense allowing the second-most passing yards per game in the league. Rivers is also tied for third in the NFL with 15 TD passes. The Ravens rank poorly in every passing defense metric allowed. They’re 31st in fantasy points allowed to QBs and tied for 31st in adjusted net yards per attempt allowed, which accounts for TDs, interceptions, and sacks.

Drew Brees - FD 7900 DK 6700
Opponent- NYG
Now is a great time to buy low on Brees, whose price is the lowest it’s ever been. It’s down $1,000 on FanDuel and $1,300 on DraftKings from when the season opened. The price drop is mostly due to some negative TD variance: Brees is third in yards per game but tied for 22nd in TDs per game. The Giants are allowing 297 passing yards per game, fourth-most in the league. Saints-Giants has one of the week’s highest over/under totals (49) and the Saints have one of the week’s highest implied point totals (28).

Eli Manning - FD 7300 DK 6600
Opponent- NO
The visiting team in the Giants-Saints game also has a buy-low candidate under center. Manning’s price is down $600 on DraftKings and $1,000 on FanDuel since the season started. He’s certainly in a spot to return value: the Saints are allowing 291 passing yards per game, seventh-most in the league. They’re also tied with the aforementioned Ravens for 31st in the NFL with 7.8 adjusted net yards per attempt allowed.

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RUNNING RBACK

Devonta Freeman - FD 9100 DK 8000
Opponent- TB
Freeman is averaging 27 touches per game over the past five weeks and gets to face the Bucs with his team installed as a seven-point home favorite. Tampa’s on-paper run defense is strong, but Freeman and the Falcons’ offensive line have gashed good on-paper run defenses multiple times already this season. Freeman leads all RBs in touches inside the 10-yard line over the past five weeks.

Todd Gurley - FD 8100 DK 6300
Opponent- SF
Gurley is averaging 24.6 touches per game over the past three weeks and his Rams are 8.5-point home favorites over the 49ers. Gurley is averaging 8.0 yards per carry and the Rams are committed to the running game, running on over half of their plays over the last three weeks. Gurley showed he can catch passes if game script should dictate, reeling in four grabs a week ago.

Chris Johnson - FD 7300 DK 4600
Opponent- CLE
Johnson gets to continue his late-career resurgence with a matchup against the NFL’s worst run defense in terms of yards per game allowed (151) and second-worst defense in terms of yards per carry allowed (5.1). Johnson is averaging 17.6 touches per game and 5.0 yards per carry on the season.

Justin Forsett - FD 6900 DK 6100
Opponent- SD
The Chargers are just as bad as the Browns at run defense, allowing the most yards per carry (5.3) and second-most rushing yardage per game (132) in the league. Forsett is averaging over 20 touches per game on the season, and has caught four or more passes in five of seven games.

WIDE RECEIVER

Julio Jones - FD 9200 DK 9200
Opponent- TB
Second in the league in targets and third in fantasy scoring at his position, Jones gets to faces a Tampa Bay defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Atlanta has a 28-point implied team total and Jones is fifth in NFL in red zone targets (12), accounting for a 37.5 percent market share.

Antonio Brown - FD 8400 DK 7800
Opponent- CIN
Brown’s price is down $900 on FanDuel and $1,000 on DraftKings from when the season began. Even if Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t play, Brown proved he could produce with Landry Jones under center, racking up a 6-124 line last week. The Bengals allow a middling 17th-most fantasy points to WRs.

A.J. Green - FD 8200 DK 7600
Opponent- PIT
Green visits the Steelers, who are allowing the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Green has always produced more on the road. In his career, he’s averaged 6.8 receptions for 101.7 yards and 0.7 TDs on the road, compared to 4.4 receptions, 64.0 yards, and 0.5 TDs at home.

Stefon Diggs - FD 6700 DK 4800
Opponent- CHI
Diggs is still a huge value across the industry, averaging 9.3 targets, 6.3 receptions, 108 yards, 0.33 TDs per game over his last three games, which happen to be the first three games of the 5th-round pick’s career. The Bears present a nice matchup, as they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points to WRs.

TIGHT END

Greg Olsen - FD 6400 DK 6500
Opponent- IND
The only legitimate receiving option Cam Newton has, Olsen is third among TEs in targets per game (8.3). Olsen’s target market share is a robust 27.7 percent, and he’s seen 38 percent of the team’s red zone targets. The Colts are a bottom-10 team in terms of receptions and yards per game allowed to TEs.

Tyler Eifert - FD 6000 DK 5300
Opponent- PIT
Eifert has scored six TDs on the season, which is tied for the lead among TEs. The Steelers have allowed the third-most FP to TE, and Eifert has been a top-five TE thus far. He’s drawn nine red zone targets, which is tied for ninth-most in the NFL.

Martellus Bennett - FD 5700 DK 4900
Opponent- MIN
The Black Unicorn is second among TEs with 8.8 targets per game, behind only Rob Gronkowski. The Vikings present a nice match-up, and they’ve allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing TEs. Bennett led all tight ends in receptions last season even with Brandon Marshall still with the team, so his heavy workload is not likely to suffer a drop-off.

Defense

D St. Louis Rams
After a huge outing at home last week, the Rams get to stay put as the generous 49ers come into town. The 49ers have allowed the third-most points to opposing defenses. Their team total is a pathetic 15.75 points and they’re 8.5-point underdogs.

D Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks get to face a Dallas team quarterbacked by Matt Cassel, who threw three picks last week despite the support of a Dallas running game that rushed for 233 yards on 41 carries. The Seahawks defense may not be able to dominate against some of the league’s better QBs like Andy Dalton and Cam Newton, but should have no problem with the likes of Cassel. Seattle is a six-point favorite and Dallas has a team total of 17.25.

Arizona Cardinals
The Cards go into Cleveland to face a Browns team allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. A top-five fantasy defense on the season, Arizona is a six-point road favorite against Cleveland.

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