Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - Week 7

Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's week 7! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft.

This week I want to discuss roster construction, and more specifically, why it’s unwise to think about players in a vacuum. I often get asked the question, “You have to have player X in your lineup this week, right?” That question is always hard to answer because players can’t be thought of in a vacuum. Every player you roster affects the rest of your lineup.

For example, last week on FanDuel I really wanted to get Tom Brady into my cash game lineup. However, no lineup I made with Brady made me feel as comfortable as I’d have liked. By paying up for Brady, I felt that I was unnecessarily sacrificing consistency at multiple other spots. So I pivoted to Philip Rivers at $1,500 less, which allowed me to build around a RB core of Matt Forte and Arian Foster while still fitting in Julian Edelman, Larry Fitzgerald, and Antonio Gates. The fact that Rivers outscored Brady is irrelevant; what’s important is that I was attempting to ensure my entire lineup was strong, rather than getting sucked in to the narrative of “got to play Brady in a revenge game” or even the fact of Brady being the top fantasy QB. You can always start constructing a lineup building around an expensive top play and see where it goes, but if you don’t feel good about the lineup after you’ve filled in all the slots, don’t force it. One good play alone won’t win you a week.

QUARTERBACKS

Andrew Luck - FD 8900 DK 7600
Opponent- NO
Fresh off a 312-yard, three-TD performance against the Patriots, Luck gets to square off against a Saints team allowing the second-most fantasy points in the league to QBs. The only QBs the Saints have been able to hold under 295 yards and two TDs are Jameis Winston and Brandon Weeden.

Carson Palmer - FD 8200 DK 6700
Opponent- BAL
Palmer faces the Ravens, who have allowed the most fantasy points per game in the league to opposing QBs. The Ravens have allowed 340 or more passing yards in four of six games; the only two games where they didn’t, they faced noodle-armed Peyton Manning and the ghost of Michael Vick. Palmer is averaging 290 passing yards per game and is tied for second in the league in TD percentage.

End Zone Score did a great take on what Carson Palmer could do this week as well.

Philip Rivers - FD 8000 DK 6500
Opponent- OAK
The NFL’s leader in passing yards per game with 352.8, Rivers faces off against a Raiders defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards per game in the NFL (299.2). Oakland has allowed at least 266 yards passing in every game, and has allowed multiple passing TDs in every game but one.

Landry Jones - FD 6000 DK 5100
Opponent- KC
Jones’ price tag and matchup make him a viable punt play. With Martavis Bryant back and Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell in the fold, Jones has some serious weapons that should remove some of the risk from rostering such an unproven QB. Also working in Jones’ favor is a matchup with the pass-defense-deficient Chiefs, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game in the league to QBs.

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RUNNING BACKS

Devonta Freeman - FD 8700 DK 7900
Opponent- TEN
Freeman’s salary is skyrocketing, but keep in mind that would have still returned massive value at his current salary in every game he’s started. Over the past four games, he’s averaging 21 carries, 6.3 receptions, and 173.5 all-purpose yards per game. The Falcons are four-point favorites against the Titans, who allowed Lamar Miller to rumble for a 19-113-1 rushing line last week.

Todd Gurley - FD 7400 DK 5000
Opponent- CLE
Gurley carried 30 times two weeks ago in Green Bay, and that kind of workload is likely again as Gurley has emerged as the only sensible option for the Rams offense. The matchup is amazing: the Browns are a bottom-three team versus RBs, allowing 5.2 yards per carry. The Rams are four-point home favorites.

Doug Martin - FD 7200 DK 4900
Opponent- WAS
Martin is underpriced for a back averaging over 20 touches per game. He goes on the road to take on a Redskins team that has been gashed by Devonta Freeman (27-153-1) and Chris Ivory (20-146-1) on the ground in back-to-back weeks. Martin’s usage has been trending upwards: over his last two games he’s averaging 22 carries and four receptions. Although being a road underdog is a concern, the spread is modest (3.5 points), and Martin is very underpriced to begin with.

Lamar Miller - FD 6700 DK 4600
Opponent- HOU
The firing of Joe Philbin may have saved Miller’s fantasy season. In four games before last week, the Dolphins were running on 26 percent of their plays. Last week, that number increased to 50 percent. Not coincidentally, Miller had his best game of the season, racking up 113 yards and a score on 19 carries. The Dolphins are 4.5-point home favorites this week against the Texans, who have allowed a middling 14th-most fantasy points per game to RBs.

WIDE RECEIVERS

DeAndre Hopkins - FD 9200 DK 8600
Opponent- MIA
Volume is king in daily fantasy, and Hopkins leads the NFL in targets per game with 14.8. What’s more, he also leads the league in red zone targets with 16. Miami is
giving up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to WRs, but with Hopkins’ usage, the matchup is irrelevant.
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Larry Fitzgerald - FD 7800 DK 7400
Opponent- BAL
Fitzgerald remains underpriced across the industry, but continues to provide reliable, consistent production. He’s posted at least five catches in every game. The Ravens have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to WRs and the numbers aren’t pretty. Opposing WRs are putting up 222 yards and 1.5 TDs per game on Baltimore.

T.Y. Hilton - FD 7700 DK 6500
Opponent- NO
Andrew Luck’s absence has kept Hilton’s price in check, but he’s posted at least 67 receiving yards in five of six games this season. He’s also tied for fourth in the NFL with nine red zone targets, which are valuable when they’re coming from Andrew Luck. The Saints versus WRs serve as an example of how defense versus position stats can be misleading. New Orleans is one of the top on-paper defenses in terms of fantasy points allowed to WRs, but they’ve faced weak competition outside of Julio Jones and Larry Fitzgerald, who both topped six catches and 80 yards against them. The Saints rank third-worst in the league with a 106.8 passer rating allowed, and have surrendered 8.6 yards per attempt and an 11:2 TD-to-interception ratio.

Willie Snead - FD 6500 DK 4300
Opponent- IND
Snead has emerged as a favorite of Drew Brees, and has averaged 4.3 catches for 72.6 yards per game this season. His price across the industry still hasn’t caught up to his production. The Colts have been generous to opposing wideouts, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game.

TIGHT ENDS

Antonio Gates - FD 5800 DK 5000
Opponent- OAK
Gates has snagged nine receptions in back-to-back games, but more importantly, has seen seven red zone targets over his two games played. His four game suspension has kept his price in check. What about his matchup against the Raiders? I’m glad you asked. The Raiders are dead last in fantasy points allowed to TEs, allowing 77.6 yards and 1.2 TD per game to the position.

Gary Barnidge - FD 5900 DK 4900
Opponent- STL
Barnidge continues to outperform his modest salary, leading all TEs in fantasy scoring over the past month. Since he was made a big part in the offense in Josh McCown’s Week 3 return, Barnidge has averaged 8.8 targets, 5.3 receptions, 90 yards, 1.3 TDs. At a position devoid of consistency, Barnidge’s can’t be overlooked.

Delanie Walker - FD 5500 DK 3900
Opponent- ATL
Walker has averaged a very decent 5.5 receptions for 61 yards per game, which extrapolates to 88 catches for 976 yards over a full season. The Falcons have allowed the sixth-most points in the league to TEs, highlighted by a 10-127-1 thrashing by the previously irrelevant Ben Watson last week.

DEFENSE

St. Louis Rams
The Rams are 4.5-point home favorites against the Browns, and Cleveland has a sub-19-point Vegas implied total. The Rams defense has played much better at home this season, allowing only 3.4 yards per carry and 5.9 yards per pass attempt at home. Browns QB Josh McCown has been playing well, but he’s been a below average career QB in terms of interceptions, sacks, and completion percentage, which are the opposing QB stats you should be targeting when selecting a fantasy defense.

Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are a matchup-based play going against a Texans offense that is allowing the most fantasy points in the league to opposing defenses. Tennessee may also be with their starting QB, Marcus Mariota (knee). The Falcons are four-point road favorites.

Seattle Seahawks (Thursday)
The Seahawks have had their struggles lately, but are in a must-win situation against divisional rival San Francisco that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. The 49ers’ Vegas implied team total is less than 18 points.
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