Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft 10/20/15

Another night of playoff baseball, another night of... pretty darned similar picks. Sorry, there just isn't a lot we can do with the same teams playing the same opponents in pretty much the same ballparks. There will be a few slight differences, though. Enjoy!

If you're new to the playoff picks, I'll be giving you one play per position to whet your appetite. You can also grab a free trial of the projection system that makes these picks possible. Your free trial also includes access to our NFL and NHL tools - so get started today!

Pitchers

Jacob deGrom - FD 10600 DK 11600
Opponent- CHC (Hendricks) R Park- @Nym
Kyle Hendricks - FD 7700 DK 8800
Opponent- NYM (DeGrom) R Park- @Nym
You're picking between National League pitchers in this one, and each has a little bit of his own flavor to offer. DeGrom is a legit #1 starter, and facing the Cubs makes him a high risk, but very high reward proposition. DeGrom's 9.66 K/9 were 9th in the league among qualified starters, and it led to him having an MLB 7th best 2.92 xFIP as well. The Cubs, for their part, had the very highest strike-out rate in the majors (24%!) against right handed pitching this season, and were a highly volatile 14th best in the majors in terms of wOBA. For cash games, DeGrom represents a nice way to get in a big chunk of salary at a pretty reasonable price.

In the other dugout, though, Kyle Hendricks is looking like a pretty intriguing tournament option. He's way cheaper the DeGrom, and the Mets were in the bottom third of the league when it comes to wOBA against right handed pitching. Hendricks is also probably underrated by the main stream media out there - his 8.35 K/9, good control, and well above average ground-ball rate make up a fine daily fantasy package. He'll also save you a ton, letting you play some significantly more qualified hitters.

Editor's Note: With these two game slates you are going to see a lot of repeat plays. There's no way to avoid it and the narratives don't change too much as long as the prices stay put. So please don't hate on the repeats here. There are only so many words.

Catchers

Salvador Perez - FD 2400 DK 3300
Opponent- Tor (Dickey) R Park- @Tor
He went 0-4 in the last game, and he's looking a little banged up. But what Doug wrote a few days ago still holds true:
With some of the plays today you'll see that I'm taking the path of cheap resistance. That's because I'm perfectly happy getting some money in on the Jays' bats, but to do so one will need to punt in a position or two. Perez showed flashed of power in the series against the Astros, though I wouldn't necessarily pencil him in as the next Mike Piazza or anything. That being said, hitting around 7th in the order, he can put the bat on the ball from time to time.

The new factor for tonight is RA Dickey. While it's not currently possible to quantify the work of knuckle-ballers in the same way that we can assess the work of more typical pitchers, one thing is clear about Dickey's season this year - whatever magic he was working as a Met is long gone. He pitched an amazing 214 innings at the league's 5th worst xFIP (4.72), and a Royals stack looks terrific today.

Our system also likes: Either of the Blue Jays catchers, depending on who starts. It's just not a believer in the efficacy of Chris Young.

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First base

Eric Hosmer - FD 3100 DK 4300
Opponent- Tor (Dickey) R Park- @Tor
Two games ago, Hosmer was one of the best plays on the day - going 1-3 with a couple of runs scored, an RBI and a walk. He hasn't done anything as of this writing (through 4) in the Monday game, but there's still time, and the fact remains - it's just tough to pick a 1B on this slate. In any case the system likes him enough against Dickey, largely thanks to the fact that Hosmer has been .155 OPS points better against right handed pitching this season, and that the Rogers Centre is a nice place to hit.

Consider: If you stray from Hosmer (I won't), I personally like Lucas Duda, even though our projection system isn't necessarily a fan. I just think he has more upside against Hendricks than Rizzo or Encarnacion against much tougher pitchers.

Second base

Ben Zobrist - FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent- Tor (Dickey) R Park- @Tor
The last time Doug wrote about Zobrist as the clear play because he crushes lefties, even though he was up against David Price. He wasn't spectacular. In 2 at bats so far against Stroman he's doubled in Alcides Escobar, and he remains the safest 2B play on the board from my cozy little office here in New Hampshire. Here's what I wrote yesterday, and it's still true in an even better match-up with Dickey:

There's just a lot of safety here in grabbing a guy who A) walked more than he struck out this year B) bats 2nd on a team that never strikes out and C) is reasonably priced.

The elephant in the room: It's true, we haven't been recommending Daniel Murphy. How long can he keep up this Honus Wagner

Shortstop

Alcides Escobar - FD 2300 DK 3300
Opponent- Tor (Dickey) R Park- @Tor
We've been giving you Escobar over and over and over again for something like 2 months. What are some fresh things I can say about him? Well, he's tripled and scored through 4 innings in Monday's game, and already more than paid off the consistently too-cheap prices. What really drives his value is the combination of where he bats in the order and the price. He's getting tons of plate appearances, makes a lot of contact, and bats in front of a lot of guys who can really hit. He's just not a minimum player, and I frankly don't know why the sites refuse to change him from one.

Troy Tulowitzki was our "if you can afford him" selection last night, and he's destroyed whichever Royals pitcher has come forth in a 2/3 HR 3 RBI effort through 4 innings. It's obviously a much better match-up with Chris Young tonight, and he remains an excellent play.

Third base

David Wright - FD 3400 DK 4100
Opponent- CHC (Hendricks) R Park- @Nym
Doug put DW in the "Wright"-up last night, and through 1 inning he's got a double with a run scored and an RBI. Against Jake Arrieta - arguably the best right handed pitcher of the last two years. As you can imagine, facing Hendricks instead of Arrieta is only making matters better for Wright, and with Bryant and Donaldson still priced in the stratosphere and facing tough pitchers against their platoon split preferences as well, I'll keep sticking with Wright.

Mike Moustakas is a slightly worse play as far as our projection system is concerned, but he won't be played as much as Wright is, and has the same great match-up with Dickey that the rest of his pals do.

Outfield

Jose Bautista - FD 4400 DK 5500
Opponent- KC (Young) R Park- @Tor
Ben Revere - FD 2800 DK 4500
Opponent- KC (Young) R Park- @Tor
Chris Colabello - FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent- KC (Young) R Park- @Tor
From Doug last night, and since they haven't played the game yet, I'll just give it to you straight:

I'm a little torn on how to go with outfield on this slate. Obviously there are legit arms going and picking any bats against any of these guys gets really tough. I think Joey Bat-Flip, Chris C and Revere come at fine enough prices considering Revere is the lead-off hitter, Bautista is Bautista and when Colabello is hitting cleanup he's worth it. What we will be saying for as long as this series lasts is that you want to take the cheapest Jays in the best spot. These guys are those bats. It's not rocket science when it comes to a team that put up a crushing amount of runs over the long term.

Somehow these 3 only participated in 1 of the first 9 runs scored by the Jays in this game, but the thinking looks sound to me. I'll give it another go-round on these next slates.

Dexter Fowler - FD 2800 DK 4000
Opponent- NYM (DeGrom) R Park- @Nym
Kyle Schwarber - FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent- NYM (DeGrom) R Park- @Nym
It's true, our system likes DeGrom best by a mile tonight. But it also thinks you might be able to do some very interesting off-beat stacking stuff by playing Fowler and Schwarber. Both have real-deal power, and Fowler throws in some extra speed and a lot of opportunity as well. I think DeGrom will shut the Cubs down, but if they don't, it could be largely due to the fact that Fowler and K-Schwarb go off. Kind of a shot in the dark, of course, but hey! That's sometimes what big tournaments are all about!

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