Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Starsdraft - Week 6

Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's week 1! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obvioulsy, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft.

Last week, I discussed the fact that we have a larger sample size to go off of as the season progresses, and I touched on looking at indicators of workload such as touches, targets, etc. Of all statistics, past volume is most predictive of future fantasy success. This was evident last week as top performers like Devonta Freeman, Le’Veon Bell, Justin Forsett, DeAndre Hopkins, Julian Edelman, and Doug Martin had all been seeing heavy volume entering Week 5. Top performances from relative newcomers on the fantasy scene like Todd Gurley, Willie Snead, Allen Hurns and Gary Barnidge were all preceded by an uptick in volume as well. As you make decisions in DFS, be sure to emphasize a player’s workload in your process, because opportunity increases fantasy upside and a lack of opportunity caps fantasy upside. Now let’s get into the Week 6 plays.

QUARTERBACKS

Tom Brady - FD 9000 DK 8100 Starsdraft 8100
Opponent- IND
Brady is the fantasy QB1 through five weeks, and faces off against a Colts defense that has allowed 293 passing yards per game despite facing Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota, Brian Hoyer, and Ryan Mallett. The Patriots’ team total of 31 is the slate’s highest, and Brady has accounted for 72 percent of the Patriot’s TDS since the start of 2014 (including playoffs).

Carson Palmer - FD 8000 DK 6600 Starsdraft 6500
Opponent- PIT
Palmer is third in NFL in QBR and leads the league with an 8.8% TD percentage. He’s thrown multiple scores in eight of his last ten games dating back to last season, and has eclipsed 300 yards in three of five games this season. The Steelers allow a 70 percent completion rate and a 9:3 TD-to-interception ratio.

Philip Rivers - FD 7500 DK 6300 Starsdraft 5700
Opponent- GB
Among all fantasy stats across all positions, passing yards exhibit the most week-to-week consistency. Rivers is third in the NFL in passing yards per game, behind only Brady and Drew Brees. Green Bay is playing good defense, but their on-paper success against the pass (186 yards allowed) may be misleading. They’ve faced Jay Cutler, Russell Wilson, Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick, and Nick Foles, all annual bottom-dwellers in the passing yardage ranks.

Sam Bradford - FD 7700 DK 6000 Starsdraft 6200
Opponent- NYG
Bradford has a nice matchup against the Giants, who have surrendered 314 passing yards per game, ranked 31st in the league. The Eagles have a Vegas total of 27 points and Bradford has accounted for a solid 61 percent of Eagles offensive TDs. Bradford should have volume on his side in this game as well, the both teams rank in the top-five in offensive pace.

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RUNNING BACKS

Le'Veon Bell - FD 9000 DK 8500 Starsdraft 8400
Opponent- ARI
With Ben Roethlisberger likely to be sidelined again, Bell will be in for another massive workload. He’s seen 25 touches or more in every game. The game is projected to be a close affair and Bell is game-script proof anyway, averaging over six receptions per game -- the Cardinals have allowed the fifth-most receptions to RBs.

Matt Forte - FD 8400 DK 7100 Starsdraft 7100
Opponent- DET
Forte’s price is down a bit on FanDuel and DraftKings, and he has a nice matchup against a Lions team that permits 4.5 yards per carry to RBs and ranks 23rd in rush defense DVOA. Forte’s 24 touches per game rank him second of all RBs, behind only Bell.

Devonta Freeman - FD 8000 DK 7000 Starsdraft 6900
Opponent- NO
Since Freeman took on the starting role, he’s averaging a whopping 29 touches per game, a trend that is likely to continue with Julio Jones (hamstring) banged up. Freeman has been the top-two RB in each of the past three weeks, and gets a nice matchup as a favorite against the Saints. New Orleans has allowed the third-most rushing yardage in the league to RBs and has permitted a 4.5 yard-per-carry average.

Charcandrick West - FD 6200 DK 4000 Starsdraft 4700
Opponent- MIN
In DFS, you’re always looking for cheap RBs who will get a starter’s workload. West takes over for Jamaal Charles and looks to have a clear lead over Knile Davis, who he out-touched 8-2 after Charles exited. The Vikings rank 29th in rush defense DVOA and are allowing a generous 4.7 yards per carry this season.

WIDE RECEIVERS

DeAndre Hopkins - FD 8500 DK 7700 Starsdraft 6600
Opponent- JAC
A top-three fantasy wideout this year, Hopkins is the top stud WR this week. Among WRs, his 14.8 targets per game mark leads 2nd place by 2.4 targets. The Jaguars have played middling pass D, allowing the 11th-most passing yards per game (260) in the league.

Julian Edelman - FD 7900 DK 7600 Starsdraft 6900
Opponent- IND
Edelman is one of the league’s most consistent producers at WR, and becomes even more valuable now that Odell Beckham (hamstring), Julio Jones (hamstring) and Antonio Brown (Vick) can’t be counted on for consistent production anymore. His 11.7 targets per game rank fifth out of all WRs, and the Colts have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs.

Larry Fitzgerald - FD 7500 DK 7000 Starsdraft 5900
Opponent- PIT
The fantasy WR2 through five weeks, Fitzgerald leads the NFL in TDs catches, is fifth in yardage, and seventh in receptions. He’s bound for some regression off his would-be career best marks of 11.5 yards per target, 80 percent catch rate, and 1.2 TDs per game. However, since he started the season priced so low, he’s still not priced according to what is rate of production would suggest, resulting in him being a strong value against a Steelers defense that ranks 18th in pass defense DVOA and is coming off of a short week.

Willie Snead - FD 6200 DK 3300 Starsdraft 2500
Opponent- ATL
Snead is still undervalued throughout the industry for his upward-trending production. On the season, he’s averaged 4.4 catches for 76 yards per game, and he’s seen an average of eight targets per game over his last four. With Marques Colston (shoulder) out and in a game with an over/under above 50, Snead is a nice value play with upside.

TIGHT ENDS

Rob Gronkowski - FD 8200 DK 7600 Starsdraft 7300
Opponent- IND
The Patriots have the highest team total (31) on the slate, which bodes well for Gronk, who has scored 24 percent of all Patriots’ offensive TDs since the start of 2014. Predictably the fantasy TE1 through five weeks, Gronk is the position’s best weekly bet for a TD: he’s scored at least one in 70 percent of his games going back to the start of 2014 (including playoffs).

Martellus Bennett - FD 5800 DK 4800 Starsdraft 5000
Opponent- DET
Target volume has the strongest correlation to fantasy points for TEs, and therefore is the most reliable predictor we have for predicting one of fantasy’s most volatile positions (defense being the other). Bennett leads all TEs in targets through five weeks. The matchup with the Lions is a positive, as the Lions rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA vs. TEs and have allowed a TD to the position in four out of five weeks.

Antonio Gates - FD 5500 DK 4600 Starsdraft 4600
Opponent- GB
Because TE is such a volatile fantasy position, it’s always advisable to use as little salary as possible on them in a cash game when the opportunity arises. Due to a four-game suspension, Gates’ price is down throughout the industry. I mentioned how important volume is, and Gates was targeted 11 times on Monday night, going 9-92-2. Getting volume at a discount is a +EV strategy in DFS.

DEFENSE

Denver Broncos
Opponent: Cleveland Broncos
The Broncos have been far-and-away the highest-scoring fantasy defense this season, and are the top option on the slate against a Browns team with a Vegas total of only 19. Josh McCown has been lighting it up against defenses inferior to the Broncos, but his career averages suggest he’s prone to taking sacks and turning the ball over.

New York Jets
Opponent: Washington Redskins
In the game with the lowest Vegas over/under of the week (40.5), the Jets are a six point home favorites against a Redskins team projected by Vegas to score only 17 points. Washington wants to run to hide mistake-prone Kirk Cousins, but that will be tough against the Jets’ top-ranked unit in run defense DVOA.

Seattle Seahawks
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
The expensive Seahawks work best as a lineup-differentiating tournament play, but are in a great spot at home against Carolina. The game has the second-lowest Vegas total (41), and the Panthers are projected to score 17 points, the least of any team on the Week 6 slate. The Seahawks also have additional upside because of the return-game prowess of Tyler Lockett.

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