Daily NFL Fantasy Football Thoughts for FanDuel and DraftKings Heading into Week 6

At some point around 2:30 PM EST on Sunday I thought we might be staring down the barrel of the lowest scoring fantasy week in some time. Just about nothing was happening to a lot of good players. But the NFL is the NFL and things changed quickly. Week 5 is in the books, but I've got some parting shots before heading into Week 6.

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Jamal Charles - Well that Sucks

Injuries in any sport for any player are brutal. When they happen to superstar players it seems a bit more magnified. Charles is a singular talent and watching that knee crumple without any contact was the kind of "Oh man, that's bad" moment we hate to see. Humanity aside, injuries also can feel magnified in DFS because they tend to swing results in big ways especially when they happen to dudes like Charles. One wants to believe these kinds of things even out over the course of a year (or a DFS lifetime), but it can tilt you for sure.

From a projection standpoint going forward, it's a little tough to hone in on how Charles' injury will effect the Chiefs backfield and offense in general. As far as the running back situation is concerned, I somewhat doubt we know exactly the status here leading into next week. Trusting coaching rhetoric regarding absolute game plans leading into a week is very tough (think Rex Ryan and "Boobie Time" with the Bills, or Abdullah with the Lions). Unless a guy has a clear track record of getting carries leading into the game (Think Devonta Freeman in Atlanta) then just plugging in someone new is a very weird spot. I know Charcandrick West saw more carries than Knile Davis last week, but trusting this to be the absolute truth going forward is dicey. Tread carefully here. Almost certainly the Chiefs will be forced to pass more often which could spell a nice bump for Jeremy Maclin who's seen his targets in the double digits each of the last three weeks.

The bottom line: injuries suck.

Andy Dalton - Safe Quarterback?

Feels crazy to say, but after the OT win against the Seahawks, Dalton now leads the NFL in passing yards and is tied for third in touchdowns. Those numbers are crazy considering the QB talent pool and yet Dalton will go into this game against the Bills (who've allowed the 9th most passing yards in the league) as the 12th most expensive quarterback on FanDuel and 14th on DraftKings. Something's got to give here one way or the other. Either he's an extreme value or a huge trap. I'm trending toward the former. He has one elite weapon in A.J. Green, two solid options in Eifert and Sanu, plus a running back (if they can fully commit to Gio) that can catch out of the backfield. The offensive line is doing its job as Dalton's only been sacked six times this season, the 4th least in the league. I think this is for real. The Bengals aren't huge favorites going into Buffalo and Dalton is starting to look like a bargain.

It Was a Good Week to be a Cheap(er) Wide Receiver

With some injuries heading into Week 5 along with some bad teams playing each other, a bunch of low cost/ low-owned wide receivers had fantastic games. This won't always be the case, but there was a lot of value on the cheaper receiving end. Unfortunately, outside of Odell Beckham, few of the bigger WR1's paid off in any meaningful way. In projecting potential targets for a game (tricky business, but do-able) guys like Marquess Wilson (6/85/1), Kamar Aiken (4/78), and even the Jags duo of Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson (5/116/1 and 7/72/2 respectively) got their's and paid off their salaries. Finding these diamonds in the rough on a weekly basis won't always be the case, but Wilson and Aiken stood to see more targets with Jeffery and Smith down. While Hurns and Robinson were in a good matchup against the Bucs.

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The Smallest Case Ever for Matthew Stafford

Man did he look horrible on Sunday. Folks even went to town with photoshop with the Cowardly Lion head on his uniform that I tried like hell to find a link to but couldn't. He got benched late because the Lions were getting rolled and there was a chance he went literal ostrich right on the field. But for all of Stafford's badness (pro term) this season, his first five games have been against some damn stingy defenses. In terms of yards per pass attempt allowed he's faced Denver (3), Arizona (5), Minnesota (7) as well as the Seahawks in Seattle and a San Diego team who's allowed the third least passing yards on the season. Sure, I'm cherry picking some of these rankings, but it isn't like Stafford's faced cream puffs.

This week he faces the Bears who while ranking high in total passing yards allowed are a good reason why you don't trust that stat out right. They rank 29th in team DVOA against the pass and 29th against opposing WR1's through Week 4 which will probably drop when recalculated after Jeremy Maclin went 8/85 last week. If there was a week for Stafford to make a comeback with Megatron, then this is it. I'm not calling him safe by any means, but there is a slight contrarian angle to this which could pay off. If not? Toast.

So Many Points Next Week

It's going to take a ton of points to win next Sunday
I know this is supposed to be thoughts on Week 5, but I can't help myself here. There are some ridiculous over/unders for next week. Three games are opening at 50 or above. Now, I spend a lot of time on college football, so when I see lines like these I always chuckle because the Bowling Green-UMass game on Saturday was bet up to 80 by kickoff, but these kind of numbers for the NFL are really high. There are some high octane offenses going and it should be fun.