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Value and Sleeper Picks for Daily Fantasy NFL Football for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 5
It's another value picks and sleepers article for the 2015 NFL season! With a couple of weeks under our belts, some players are already undervalued on DraftKings and FanDuel. Roles change more rapidly in NFL than they do anywhere else, leaving us a huge opportunity to get to cashing in. Here are some guys that our projection system likes that you might not see elsewhere.
We've also got Chris Raybon's Week 5 NFL picks sitting there waiting for you to digest.
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QUARTERBACK
Kirk Cousins - FD 6400 DK 5300 Starsdraft 5200
Opponent- ATL
We had Cousins as a solid value pick from last week and he more than paid off his price against the Eagles. A last second TD to Pierre Garcon (a miracle catch in its own right) helped save him for sure, but Cousins saw the volume I suspected he would against the Eagles. It's a similar situation for Cousins in this one. Cousins is an underdog in a game that should feature a fair amount of scoring. The Redskins will most likely be playing from behind, forcing Cousins to the air. The Falcons are a below average team in Defensive DVOA against the pass this season. Game flow should help Cousins get value relative to his price. Last week he completed 67% of his passes for 290 yards and a TD. A similar line in this game isn't out of the question.
Blake Bortles - FD 6900 DK 5100 Starsdraft 5600
Opponent- TB
Bortles is also coming cheap on DraftKings and could be in a spot to at least hit value. Remember, this isn't the "Good Quarterbacks" article so temper the hate a little bit. The Jags stink, though it isn't like the Bucs are lighting the world on fire. They are another below average team defending the pass this season. Bortles has a slightly higher floor because he will take off and run from time to time, averaging more than 20 yards rushing a game this season. Those trickles of points make a difference for the guy at these prices. He's a little pricey on FanDuel, where getting better money in at a little higher a price isn't a tough sell.
He's not in Raybon's main pick article, but our system thinks Drew Brees has a good expectation relative to price.
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RUNNING BACK
T.J. Yeldon - FD 6600 DK 4400 Starsdraft 5700
Opponent- TB
Most games this season the Jaguars will be such heavy dogs that playing a running back on their team won't make any real sense. But this isn't one of those games. While the money line is low against Tampa Bay, it is expected to stay at least close in a game that will surely be the least watched one of the whole weekend. In another close game last Sunday against the Luck-less Colts, Yeldon saw 22 carries and three passing targets on his way to 109 total yards. It's the volume that should be there again in this game. He'll need to score in order to really pay, but the DraftKings price looks especially inviting against a middle of the road Bucs team.
Todd Gurley - FD 6700 DK 4300 Starsdraft 6000
Opponent- GB
The Rams are big time dogs against the Packers this week and that doesn't favor the running back situation at all. But Gurley appears to be the primary back for St. Louis now and they'll presumably try to at least control the ball on the ground early in this game. Last week Gurley dominated the Rams' touches and ripped off a fantastic game. The DraftKings price is about as close to a punt as you can get for a guy of Gurley's upside and the FanDuel price makes an interesting tournament play. If Gurley is the every down back in St. Louis now (and recent events would suggest he is) then even as an underdog he can hit value.
Frank Gore - FD 6900 DK 5000 Starsdraft 4900
Opponent- HOU
The bad news on Gore is that he's washed up and stinks. The good news is the Colts have no one else. With Luck out of the lineup the Colts gave Gore the ball 17 times on the ground and targeted him 7 times in the passing game. It looks like Luck will play this Thursday, though he may be limited possibly opening the door for more Gore. He's coming so cheap and does get the goal line carries for the Colts (though he fumbled away a TD last week). This is a price and opportunity thing. Not necessarily one that makes me feel all warm inside.
WIDE RECEIVER
Allen Robinson - FD 6300 DK 5500 Starsdraft 5400
Opponent- TB
Allen Hurns - FD 6100 DK 4500 Starsdraft 4100
Opponent- TB
At the risk of making this column all Jags (which I've kind of done already), these are two more guys coming at very low prices. Combined they saw 27 targets last week from Bortles. Robinson was amazing inefficient, converting only 4 of them (though making them count for 80 yards) while Hurns went 11/116/1 in a game that more than paid the day. Again, this article is about price and opportunity. Few other receivers see this kind of volume in the same price tier. And though Bortles is about as accurate as one of your buddies in a Sunday morning pickup game when everyone is hung over, the matchup is fine enough.
If Alshon Jeffery is out again, then Eddie Royal becomes a more targeted player in the Bears' offense.
TIGHT END
Honestly, Chris covered the two better cheaper options (Charles Clay and Owen Daniels) in his article. They are great values and if you are looking to cheap are definitely the way to go. Though if you want to kick it up into the middle tier, consider
Martellus Bennett - FD 5900 DK 5000 Starsdraft 4300
Opponent- KC
With Alshon Jeffery out last week and Jay Cutler back, Bennett became the go-to guy. He was a target beast, seeing 13 looks on his way to a 11/83/1 line that made him tight end of the day. There's reason to suspect he seems similar looks even if Alshon is back, though the matchup against the Chiefs is a worse one. The Chiefs are below average defending the tight end position this season, ranking 20th in positional DVOA. Bennettisn't priced out of the box and if you want a tight end featured in the passing game, but don't want to pay up for Gronk, then this is an okay way to go.
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