Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Starsdraft - Week 4

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As we approach the end of the first quarter of the NFL season, DFS salaries are starting to see major movement away from where they started the season. Some of the price changes are legitimate, but some are simply due to “noise” rather than “signal” – in other words, early season variance.

Price drops – absent injury or change in workload – tend to be predictive of future value. A the season starts to progress, it’s important to look out for unwarranted price drops and also avoid players with rising salaries, unless the rise is warranted. You can compare a player’s current salary not only to his season-opening salary, but also to his historical salary. For example, last week, Jimmy Graham’s FanDuel price was the lowest it’s been since 2010, so his 7-83-1 line last week provided even more value than usual. I mentioned Cam Newton’s $800 price drop as well last week, and he finished as a top-three scorer at his position. Then there were big days from A.J. Green and Jeremy Maclin, who had also seen large decreases in salary.

QUARTERBACK

Aaron Rodgers - FD 9200 DK 7900 Starsdraft 8300
Opponent- SF
Whereas the value of other fantasy football positions depends on workload volume, efficiency is crucial at the QB position. That’s what makes Aaron Rodgers a top play facing off against the 49ers, who are allowing a whopping 10.0 yards per pass attempt, worst in the NFL. Take advantage of the fact that Rodgers’ price didn’t increase despite a 333-yard, 5-TD shellacking of the Chiefs.

Andrew Luck - FD 9100 DK 7800 Starsdraft 8500
Opponent- JAC
Luck’s price is slowly declining and he’s in a good spot at home against a Jaguars defense that he shredded for 52-of-71 (73 percent) passing, 623 yards (8.8 yards/attempt), five TDs, and no picks in two meetings last season. The Jaguars didn’t get a true test Week 1 against Cam Newton, who ran on a third of his dropbacks, but gave up 359 yards and two TDs to Ryan Tannehill in Week 2 and 358 yards and two TDs to Tom Brady in Week 3.

Colin Kaepernick - FD 7500 DK 5500 Starsdraft 5900
Opponent- GB
This is a tournament-only play, but one way to succeed on tournaments is to be greedy when others are fearful, as fantasy football author C.D. Carter likes to say. Especially on DraftKings, Kaepernick’s price has plummeted – he can be had for 20 percent less than when the season started on that site. It was just two weeks ago that Kaep’ threw for 335 yards and two TDs, adding 51 more on the ground as his team was the victim of a blowout. A similar game script could play out this week against a red-hot Aaron Rodgers. Also working in Kaepernick’s favor is a meeting with a Dom Capers defense. In three meetings against Capers-led units, Kaepernick is 60-of-100 for 9.0 yards per attempt, six TDs, two interceptions, and a 101.3 passer rating.

Derek Carr - FD 7000 DK 5300 Starsdraft 5700
Opponent- CHI
With the emergence of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree playing well on other side, Carr looks to have taken a step forward in his second season. His completion percentage is up from 58 percent last year to 63 percent this year, his yards per attempt up to 8.1 from 5.5, his TD percentage is up to 5.6 from 3.5, and his interception rate is down to 1.1 from 2.0. The Bears have allowed a 70 percent completion rate, 7.91 yards per attempt, eight TDs, and have just one interception.

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RUNNING BACK

Matt Forte - FD 8300 DK 7100 Starsdraft 7400
Opponent- OAK
Touch volume is most strongly correlated to success for a fantasy RB, and Forte is in play solely based on that since the Bears are missing their starting QB, Jay Cutler. Forte saw a nice price drop after two tough match-ups, and because of his pass-catching ability, remains mostly impervious to game script (the Bears are currently 2.5-point underdogs).

Latavius Murray - FD 7500 DK 6300 Starsdraft 6400
Opponent- CHI
Murray is quietly becoming the quintessential cash game play. In his last eight games dating back to last season (when he assumed the role of starter), Murray has not been held under 75 total yards. The Raiders are favorites who are likely to get lots of time of possession against a Bears team led by Jimmy Clausen. The Bears defense has been generous on the ground this season, allowing 4.78 yards per carry to opposing running backs.

Devonta Freeman - FD 7200 DK 5200 Starsdraft 5500
Opponent- HOU
It’s tough to expect a repeat of Freeman’s 35-touch, three-TD outburst last week, but it’s also hard to ignore. The Falcons didn’t, with reports early in the week suggesting Freeman has been named the Falcons’ starter regardless of Tevin Coleman’s health. Freeman saw a price increase, but he still checks all the boxes. He leads all RBs with 18 red zone opportunities, has seen major passing game involvement with an average of 5.7 targets per game, and as of this writing, his Falcons are 6.5-point home favorites over the Houston Texans.

Karlos Williams - FD 6300 DK 3400 Starsdraft 4500
Opponent- NYG
Who is this week’s Devonta Freeman? There’s a good chance it ends up being Karlos Williams. With starter LeSean McCoy unlikely to play, Williams would inherit starter’s volume on a team that wants to run to protect it’s young QB. The 5th-round pick has already scored three TDs in his first 24 career rushing attempts, and checks all the boxes as a sizable home favorite (Bills are -6) against the Giants.

WIDE RECEIVER

Randall Cobb - FD 8200 DK 7400 Starsdraft 7400
Opponent- SF
I mentioned earlier that the 49ers are allowing 10 yards per pass attempt, and as the recipient of 32 percent of Aaron Rodgers’ targets, Cobb stands to benefit the most. Cobb has also commanded 35 percent of the team’s red zone targets. The 49ers allowed a 6-7-88-1 stat line to the Cardinals’ slot receivers last week.

Jordan Matthews - FD 7000 DK 6600 Starsdraft 6200
Opponent- WAS
Regardless of what happens with Sam Bradford and the rest of the Eagles passing game, Matthews is likely going to be a WR1, but he’s still not priced like one. The recipient of 26 percent of Bradford’s targets so far, Matthews makes for a rock-solid cash game investment with at least six catches in each game this season. The Redskins will have trouble defending the 6-foot-3 Matthews out of the slot, where slot corner Bashaud Breeland is only 5-foot-11 and has already allowed two TDs and a 142.3 QB rating this season.

Larry Fitzgerald - FD 7400 DK 6500 Starsdraft 6000
Opponent- STL
Fitzgerald is another guy who’s likely a WR1, but isn’t priced like one. He’s drawn at least eight targets and caught at least six passes in each of his three games, and leads the team with a 42 percent share of red zone targets. In 25 games with Carson Palmer, Fitzgerald has averaged 5.5 catches for 71 yards and 0.7 TDs, which translates to a 88-1136-11 line over a full season.

Donte Moncrief - FD 6300 DK 5000 Starsdraft 5000
Opponent- JAC
I thought about James Jones in the spot, and he’s also a fine play against the 49ers’ porous defense. But while both have scored at least one TD in every game, Jones only has 15 targets through three games, while Moncrief has 26. After facing the Panthers’ barely there WR corps in Week 1, the Jaguars have allowed WRs to catch 34-of-44 passes (77 percent catch rate) for 398 yards (9.0 yards per target) over the past two weeks.

TIGHT END

Greg Olsen - FD 6300 DK 5400 Starsdraft 4900
Opponent- TB
In DFS, it’s important not to be swayed by recency bias. After a one-catch Week 1 where he was the highest-owned TE, many owners jumped ship on Cam Newton’s projected target leader. But nothing has changed – Olsen is still Cam’s most reliable target and has now drawn at least 11 targets in back-to-back games. In two games against the Bucs last season, Olsen averaged a 9-87-0.5 line, as Lovie Smith’s cover-2 defense tends to be vulnerable to TEs.

Jason Witten - FD 6000 DK 4400 Starsdraft 4000
Opponent- NO
With no Dez Bryant on the outside, the limited Brandon Weeden didn’t even complete on pass to an outside WR last week, which benefits the steady Witten, who has seen at least eight targets in every game. Also in Witten’s favor is a match-up against the Saints, who have all kinds of problems in their secondary and have allowed the second-most points to TEs this season.

Jordan Reed - FD 5600 DK 4500 Starsdraft 3300
Opponent- PHI
Reed is one of the better movers at the TE position, allowing him to get open frequently and also get good yardage post-catch. Reed has drawn 8.7 targets per game and caught at least six balls in each of his games this season, which is more like WR1 numbers than like the borderline TE1 that he’s being priced as. Redskins-Eagles has the second-highest over/under of the week, and the Eagles have allowed the sixth-most passing attempts in the league.

Charles Clay - FD 5200 DK 3300 Starsdraft 3000
Opponent- NYG
Boasting solid outside corners but safeties and linebackers that struggle in pass coverage, the Giants are vulnerable to tight ends. They’ve already allowed the second-most receptions and third-most yardage to the position this season. He’s received a solid 20 percent of Tyrod Taylor’s targets in and out of the red zone, which could increase if Sammy Watkins (calf) is not at 100 percent.

DEFENSE

Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are at home and are the largest favorites on the slate (-9.5). Vegas oddsmakers project that the Lions will put up less than 17 points this weekend. The Lions are graded as the league’s second-worst pass-blocking unit and Matthew Stafford is playing hurt, which increases the likelihood of him making mistakes that benefit the Seahawks defense from a fantasy perspective.

Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are 6.5-point favorites and the Rams’ Vegas team total is a mere 18 points. The Cardinals already have a league-leading seven interceptions, and the Rams have failed to score more than ten points in back-to-back games.

Indianapolis Colts
For salary relief, it always makes sense to target the Jaguars. Since he came into the league, Blake Bortles has been one of the most sack-prone (9.6 percent sack rate), interception-prone (3.4 percent interception rate), and inaccurate (58 percent completion rate, including 54 percent this year) passers in the league. The Colts are the slate’s second-largest favorites (-8.5), and are playing at home.

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