Value and Sleeper Picks for Daily Fantasy NFL Football for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 4

It's our third value picks and sleepers article of the 2015 NFL season! With a couple of weeks under our belts, some players are already undervalued on DraftKings and FanDuel. Roles change more rapidly in NFL than they do anywhere else, leaving us a huge opportunity to get to cashing in. Here are some guys that our projection system likes that you might not see elsewhere.

We've also got Chris Raybon's Week 4 NFL picks sitting there waiting for you to digest.

Want to find more sleepers and potential breakout daily fantasy football stars for the NFL in week 4? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft.

QUARTERBACK

This is one position I'm not going to spend a ton of time with. Chris gave you Derek Carr and Colin Kaepernick, two QBs coming very much on the cheaper side with rather high expectations. Both of their DraftKings prices are ridiculously low and offer a ton of flexibility there. So you can understand why a deeper dive isn't as much in demand this time around.

Kirk Cousins - FD 6100 DK 5400 Starsdraft 5200
Opponent- PHI
You need to have a strong stomach for plays like this. But Cousins showed last week he wasn't a complete corpse with a QB1 sticker next to his name. granted his touchdown pass came in garbage time, but Cousins did throw the ball close to 50 times. There's some reason to believe he sees enough volume in this game to get near a similar number of attempts. The Eagles allow the most plays per game to opposing teams at 71.7 (tied with Buffalo) which carries over the tradition from last year where they were also right at the most in the league. Just having Cousins on the field more could get his prices up and over the value markers. And on the off chance he throws say, two touchdowns, then you are really in the clear.

Quick note: I think you can also consider Tyrod Taylor against the Giants for some of the reasons I outlined in my NFL Week 3 wrap up piece.

RUNNING BACK

Thomas Rawls - FD 6000 DK 3000 Starsdraft 4700
Opponent- DET
This is if, and only if, Marshawn Lynch were to sit out on Monday night. The problem of course with a play like this is whether you will know or not. On FanDuel that's a major problem and you probably can't take the risk unless there's some definitive news prior to 1PM kickoff. It isn't much better on DraftKings even with the late swap. The odds of getting in a comparable (or even relevant) player at the last minute is low. That being said, keep a keen ear out for the Lynch news because when Rawls came in last game he showed an ability to run for this squad, going for 16/104.

Carlos Hyde - FD 7400 DK 5100 Starsdraft 4800
Opponent- GB
This is more of a DraftKings flyer than anything I'd really consider on FanDuel. But if you want to grab a non-punt RB on the cheaper side, then there might be something to Hyde. Though the Packers are favorites in this game, they are in the bottom third of the league in opposing rushing yards allowed at 127.7/ game. They mostly handled Jamal Charles last week (outside of the goal line touchdowns), but Forte worked them in Week 1. The obvious running backs like Karlos Williams and Devontae Freeman were covered by Raybon, I'm mostly looking a little against the grain for tournaments. The Steelers and Cardinals shut him down the last two weeks, though that's not a huge knock. The $5100 DK price is reasonable especially if San Fran can in any way stay in the game.

Lance Dunbar - FD 5600 DK 3600 Starsdraft 2900
Opponent- NO
Now that the Dallas Cowboy game plan consists of Brandon Weeden throwing the shortest passes possible in any effort to always get the ball completed but never actually go anywhere, Dunbar is looking very much like a viable play especially on full PPR sites like DraftKings. He's nearly the minimum there and is coming off a 10 catch 100 yard week that has his receiving totals up to 21/215 for the season. The receptions rank 13th overall in the league. Now he's converting all of his looks (23 targets in all) but the nature of his routes will have a high level of success anyway. It also helps that the Saints rank dead last on the early season in DVOA against the pass.

WIDE RECEIVER

James Jones - FD 6000 DK 5300 Starsdraft 3700
Opponent- SF
While Randall Cobb grabbed the headlines against the Chiefs on Monday Night, James Jones quickly became a heavily targeted player once Davante Adams went down. Adams hurt his ankle ( I believe) on the first series of the game. After that Jones saw eight targets, converting them to a 7/139/1 line. I am much higher on Jones as long as Adams sits in this game against the Niners. If the WR corp is loaded up again, then I probably shy away from the price. Jones isn't a punt play at this point, having put up monsters in two of the first three weeks. But the price also isn't at his opportunity level if he's WR2 in this offense. It's also worth mentioning that on the short season, San Fran ranks dead last in the league in DVOA against teams WR2's. Small sample, but they are getting burned.

Pierre Garcon - FD 6100 DK 5300 Starsdraft 4700
Opponent- PHI
Garcon follows much of the same line of thinking as Cousins. He's coming relatively cheap across the board and should see plenty of opportunity in this one considering the Eagles' pace. Garcon leads the team in targets by a hair over Jordan Reed (going to get to him in a second) and should see those looks again in this game. Garcon's ceiling is a bit limited because he's more a possession receiver and isn't the number one target in the red zone for the Skins. Plus he has Kirk Cousins as his quarterback. But in terms of volume, there are few other wide receivers seeing the amount of targets in the same price range.

Leonard Hankerson - FD 5600 DK 3700 Starsdraft 3900
Opponent- HOU
Roddy White has a total of nine targets this season. Now of course, a lot of them are going to Julio Jones who's been shredding. But some are going to Hankerson who already has 20 looks on the season. For a very cheap WR, this kind of opportunity can pay off. He has seen some red zone targets so far with 3 inside the 20 yard line. Look, Jones will be the top dog here for sure. But being the second fiddle for the Falcons will pay off from time to time. Especially at $3700 on DraftKings.

TIGHT END

Jordan Reed - FD 5600 DK 4500 Starsdraft 3300
Opponent- PHI
Dollar-for-dollar I think Reed is the best TE on the board this week. He has only two less targets this season than Greg Olsen who is coming at a higher tag. Granted, I like Olsen as well, but if you are looking to save a few dollars, then Reed's looks are right up there at the top of the league for tight ends. He has some red zone looks as well, so Cousins does notice him down and close. There's a reason a lot of Redskins are on here this week. They stand to see a ton of plays from scrimmage.

Maxx Williams - FD 4700 DK 2500 Starsdraft 2000
Opponent- PIT
This is your true tight end min-priced punt play. Williams should pick up a decent amount of Crocket Gillmore's snaps this week as the latter has already been ruled out. When he hasn't been throwing to Steve Smith every down, Flacco has targeted the tight ends in his offense about 25 times. Gillmore's 13 looks are gone and Maxx has the second most with ten targets. I think all things considered, he has a very high floor for the minimum prices.

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