Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft 10/1/15

Well - things are winding down for this regular season. A lot of playoff spots are secure, a lot of awful players have been called up for September, and here we are - just trying to figure out what the heck is going to happen on a day to day basis. Thursday happens to be quite a large daily fantasy baseball slate, so I'll go ahead and give you a play for the early slate, and then a couple of plays in the late slate for each position.

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A quick note: It's the end of the year, which means that you really have no idea who is going to play, and who isn't. This is based on a best guess, but inevitably some or all of these picks will be sitting for reasons known or unknown. Make sure to check probable starting lineups before you actually lock yours in, and for the love of God, don't play full-day slates.

Pitchers

Early Slate
Jerad Eickhoff - FD 6100 DK 8800 StarsDraft
Opponent- Nym (Stauffer) R Park- @Phi
Lord knows I spend enough time bragging about my awesome picks, so let me take a refreshing break for you: I couldn't have been more wrong about Jerad Eickhoff. While he's still out-performing his peripherals, it seems like the gains he's made in the last couple of seasons have been legit. He's an excellent control guy, and he has enough stuff to put up a decent strike-out game as well. Today he'll face the Mets, who have nothing to play for - as evidenced by the fact that Tim Stauffer will be taking the mound. Given the other options early (and the likelihood of Price getting pulled early), I think Eickhoff actually makes a fine play in any format.

Late Slate
Jose Fernandez - FD 10900 DK 11200 StarsDraft
Opponent- TB (Odorizzi) R Park- @TB
The runaway favorite for our projection system for late slate cash games. Fernandez has been an improved version of his old dominant self through 10 starts this season - posting a 10.71 K/9 against just 2.15 BB/9. In spite of the innings being very limited, he's still averaged 13.4 FanDuel fantasy points per game, and his 2.71 xFIP would be a top 5 figure if he had enough innings to qualify. As for the Rays, you don't love that this game is in an AL park, but the Rays are still the 6th worst team in baseball (per wOBA) against right handed pitching in the major leagues, and they've also got the 7th highest K%. I don't love Fernandez's upside because of the innings cap, but it's hard to imagine him not mowing down the Rays he does wind up facing.

Note: I heavily considered Stephen Strasburg for this spot, but I'm thinking the Nationals might go a little bit easy on him now that the playoffs are out of reach. If you think he'll get his full run, he's arguably an easy start against the Braves, who have been worse than even the Rays against righties this season.

Patrick Corbin - FD 6900 DK 7500 StarsDraft
Opponent- Col (Hale) R Park- @Ari
Your sleeper play for the late slate. Corbin has some no-shows on his resume this season, but he also has the stuff to have an absolutely huge game as well. Corbin looked like an burgeoning top tier pitcher before losing 2014 to Tommy John surgery, and has actually been better in terms of xFIP in 2015 than he was then. He mixes a good swing and miss slider (good for a 8.25 K/9) with excellent command (1.81 BB/9), and also gets a good amount of ground balls. Today he'll be up against the Rockies, who are objectively bad against lefties as a whole (5th lowest wOBA, 7th highest K%), but historically bad on the road, where they rank dead last by a country mile. Just huge upside for Corbin here, even if his own home park isn't exactly a pitcher's paradise.

Catchers

Early Slate
Buster Posey - FD 3300 DK 4000 StarsDraft 5300
Opponent- LAD (Anderson) L Park- @SF
Word is that Posey won't catch anymore this season, but people seem to believe he'll be in there to at least bat against the left handed Brett Anderson on Thursday. And it makes sense - he's got a .954 career OPS against left handed pitching, which is frankly ridiculous for a man you can play at the catcher position. As for Anderson - his league leading ground-ball rate is something of a concern, but he's given up more than 2 hits per inning in his last 2 starts, and struck out just 2 batters in that time. If Posey's a go, he's a must play.

Late Slate
Salvador Perez - FD 2200 DK 3500 StarsDraft 4800
Opponent- CWS (Danks) L Park- @cws
Perez is a 25 year old catcher with a career .770 OPS against left handed pitching, and one of the leaders at his position with 20 home runs this year. He'll face John Danks, who through 365 innings the last two season has an incredible 4.63 xFIP (that's bad, for you NFL converts).

Wilson Ramos - FD 2500 DK 3100 StarsDraft 4000
Opponent- Atl (Weber) R Park- @Atl
Our projection sees one thing here: Ryan Weber. Ramos is better against right handed pitching, but he, like a lot of players, truly excels against terrible pitching. Weber is your definition batting practice pitcher. He was striking out 4.10 K/9 in the minors before getting called up this season, where he's been even worse. The only question here is if Ramos' liners find gloves, or dirt.

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First base

Early Slate
It's just so hard to say who will play, here, but I think you could get by with Lucas Duda, Joey Votto, or any number of guys if you can figure out who's going. This is one of the times where you just get access to our projection system and play whoever looks the best that's actually going to play.

Late Slate
Albert Pujols - FD 3100 DK 4200 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- Tex (Holland) L Park- @Tex
With the Angels firmly entrenched in this thing, they'll trot out all the big guns. To that end, I love Pujols in the late slate against the left handed Derek Holland. Pujols has a ridiculous .179 BABIP against lefties this season (down from his .297 established career levels), and if it weren't for that, he'd be having a banner year. He has 9 homers in 157 plate appearances against southpaws, and playing in the warm Texas air should increase his odds for a long-ball. I love him in any format.

Paul Goldschmidt - FD 4300 DK 5800 StarsDraft 5600
Opponent- Col (Hale) R Park- @Ari
If you go cheap on pitching, our system loves Goldschmidt against David Hale. While Goldie prefers left handers, his .959 OPS against northpaws is the 7th best in the major leagues, and he's been even better than that at home. Like most Rockies' starters, David Hale is generally awful. Interestingly - he's been even worse on the road, where his K/BB is just 14/7 in 22 innings (during which time he's allowed 16 runs). Great spot for Paul.

 

Second base

Early Slate
Chase Utley - FD 2900 DK 2800 StarsDraft 4300
Opponent- SF (Hudson) R Park- @SF
Quite simply, Tim Hudson has turned into a well below-average starter. His 4.60 K/9 and 2.60 BB/9 just can't be overcome by his good ground-ball rate, and he's a threat to get rocked every time he takes the mound. Utley's been great since coming to the Dodgers thanks to his BABIP woes turning around, and he should have plenty of opportunity to keep that trend going here (assuming, again, that he plays).

Late Slate
Jason Kipnis - FD 2900 DK 4700 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Min (Duffey) R Park- @Cle
Kipnis has a .900+ OPS against right handed pitching this season, and he's going full bore as the season comes to an end. He's not a conventional upside play due to the lack of power and speed, but he can actually pile up a good game on counting stats alone in the right match-up. Tyler Duffey has looked pretty good in his first stint in the bigs, but he doesn't qualify as a guy who should scare you here. Love Kipnis for double-ups.

Brian Dozier - FD 3000 DK 4300 StarsDraft 4700
Opponent- Cle (Bauer) R Park- @Cle
I thought about putting Anthony Rendon here, but he's basically just a worse version of Kipnis, and his playing status will be relatively unknown with the Nats potentially shutting things down. Dozier is everything Kipnis and Rendon aren't - he's a huge upside play with a pretty low floor, but that's what makes him so affordably priced for what he can do for you. He tops the 2nd base position in HR, R, RBI, and he's tied for 7th in steals! And while he's been a platoon guy in the past, 21 of his home runs this year have come in his 478 plate appearances against righties. Bauer has great K stuff, but his lack of command (4.09 BB/9) means he could make a mistake up in the zone here, spelling big upside for Doze owners.

 

Shortstop

Early Slate
Freddy Galvis - FD 2400 DK 2900 StarsDraft 3500
Opponent- Nym (Stauffer) R Park- @Phi
It really speaks to the Phillies' futility that more of them haven't made it into the picks against Tim Stauffer. Stauffer is a place-holder's place holder, bringing his 5+ xFIP and total lack of swing and miss stuff to bear while we Mets fans patiently await yet another post-season disappointment. Galvis, meanwhile, is just a cheap option who you can at least rely on to play, which is more than you can say for most of the guys in the early slate. He also gets a lot of reps with a decent contact rate at the top of the order, raising his floor quite a bit. Feels like a 50/50 play only, but I don't know who your options will be for big tournaments.

Late Slate
Alcides Escobar - FD 2200 DK 3500 StarsDraft 4300
Opponent- CWS (Danks) L Park- @cws
Just a guy you can grab at the top of a lineup who will see lots of plate appearances against the old and bad John Danks. Not really much to see here, other than a dirt cheap price and lots of opportunity winning the day at a bad position.

Jose Reyes - FD 3700 DK 4100 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Ari (Corbin) L Park- @Ari
If you insist on going for upside from the position, I'm intrigued by Jose Reyes. He's been relatively platoon neutral for his career, and he looked great in his return from injury on Wednesday. With no other high-upside shortstops going on the slate, you might just have to grit your teeth and hope Reyes slaps the ball all over, scoring some runs, and smiling vacantly toward the Colorado dugout.

Third base

Early Slate
Kris Bryant - FD 4400 DK 5000 StarsDraft 5300
Opponent- Cin (Lamb) L Park- @Cin
John Lamb struggles with the long ball (1.40 HR/9 this year), and Kris Bryant struggles not hitting home runs. When he makes contact. This feels like one of those "upside only plays" due to Lamb's big K rate and Bryant's big K rate, but this could also be a 2 home run game. Anything is in play here, and I'm tempted to take him just to be able to sweat out the at-bats!

If he plays, our system likes Todd Frazier. Though with the Achilles thing, and it being this late in the year, I'm not holding my breath.

Late Slate
Adrian Beltre - FD 3500 DK 4500 StarsDraft 5400
Opponent- LAA (Heaney) L Park- @Tex
I've written it at least 30 times since it's started happening, but don't be fooled by Beltre's triple-slash line. He's been a different player from a peripheral perspective in the 2nd half of the season, dramatically cutting the Ks while increasing his walks, and returning to some semblance of his old form power-wise as well. With 9 homers and an .891 OPS in 207 PA against lefties this season, Beltre is still a force to be reckoned with. When you parse the data further and take his home splits, you're looking at a 1K+ OPS monster who walks nearly twices as much as he strikes out. As for Heaney - his 3.29 ERA is a full run ahead of his xFIP, having him looking like something of a paper tiger. I like Beltre everywhere.

An upside play: Alex Rodriguez. Rich Hill has been oddly amazing, but the 40 year old A-Rod has a .960 OPS against lefties this year, and he's at a great price. Lots and lots of bang for your buck potential by grabbing him on the relatively cheap and spending up elsewhere.

Outfield

Early Slate
Jay Bruce - FD 2800 DK 3500 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Chc (Hammel) R Park- @Cin
Underpriced all season due to his potential downside, but Bruce has clobbered 22 homers in 453 PAs against right handed pitching this season, and has been .100+ OPS points better against right handers since the day he was born. Meanwhile, everything is going in the wrong direction for Jason Hammel, who will presumably be be as ineffective here as he has been all month.

Dexter Fowler - FD 2800 DK 4000 StarsDraft 4500
Opponent- Cin (Lamb) L Park- @Cin
Dexter Fowler is one of the more dramatic platoon guys in the majors, in spite of being a switch hitter. He's got an OPS .130 points higher against left handers this season, and has more power from the right side of the plate as well. He's also got some other great things going for him. First of all, his 676 plate appearances are tied for 5th in the majors, meaning lots of opportunity. His 17 homers and 20 steals are both fine totals if you're seeking upside. I love Fowler everywhere in the early slate.

Curtis Granderson - FD 3500 DK 4600 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Phi (Eickhoff) R Park- @Phi
If he plays, Granderson looks great here. The Grandy Man has bulldozed righties for a near .900 OPS this season, and has 23 homers and 10 steals against them in 526 plate appearances. Playing in a favorable hitting environment in Philly against a young pitcher looks pretty juicy as well

Late Slate
Mike Trout - FD 4800 DK 5000 StarsDraft 5900
Opponent- Tex (Holland) L Park- @Tex
Trout just keeps blasting home runs, so we're going to keep recommending him in favorable platoon spots in great hitters' parks like this. Do you need more analysis?

Ben Zobrist - FD 3200 DK 4100 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- CWS (Danks) L Park- @cws
Alex Gordon - FD 2500 DK 3600 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- CWS (Danks) L Park- @cws
Our projection system is basically saying, "Any Royal that is playing will do against John Danks." Now you know.

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