Daily Fantasy UFC Picks for UFC 192 - 10/3/15

Houston, Texas, will play host to UFC 192 this weekend. There are some big fights scheduled for Saturday, and a lot of smaller ones, too. If you are a fantasy MMA fan, there are some good opportunities to take advantage of when you are drafting your daily fantasy MMA rosters. Here, we will look at a few of the main fights that you should be considering for your roster, and let you know what you should be looking at before you make any sort of decision.

Here is our daily fantasy analysis of three of the top fights on the card, plus your best value pick of the night.

Daniel Cormier v. Alexander Gustafsson

This is the headline fight of the night for sure, but the favorite isn’t quite as clear as it might seem. Daniel Cormier seems to be the consensus, and DraftKings agrees with this. They’ve priced him at $11,000, and Gustafsson is just $8,400. The main reason for this is that Gustafsson lost his most recent fight in the first round by KO/TKO. That was back in January against Anthony Johnson. A few months later, in May, Cormier also fought Johnson, but won in a third round submission. Cormier definitely has the edge here because of this, but Cormier isn’t scoring as many fantasy points each fight as Gustafsson is. However, even if this is a lower scoring match, Cormier is the favorite and going with Gustafsson isn’t the right choice even if he has more points per match historically. Whether or not Cormier will approach his average of 71.5 points per match will remain to be seen, but he’s the favorite for a reason here.

Ruslan Magomedov v. Shawn Jordan

These types of fights are great on your roster because both fighters are below the $10,000 average that DraftKings uses as the cutoff for a favorite. Because both are below this number, the fighters are very close in talent and there’s no clear favorite, but this doesn’t need to work against you. The opportunity is worthwhile because even if you’re wrong in who you think will win, you are still getting a good value from the fighter. Jordan is the fighter with the highest fantasy point average per past fight at 67.4 according to certain fantasy sites. Compare this to Magomedov’s 55.0 and Jordan is the clear choice. Jordan is slightly cheaper at $9,500, but even if Magomedov is slightly favored at $9,900, Jordan is still the better choice as the dollar values are close enough that the extra point potential far outweighs the $400 difference.

Julianna Pena v. Jessica Eye

Women’s MMA is a popular sport right now, and this is the biggest women’s fight of the night. Pena is a clear favorite. She’s averaged over 120 points per fight, and although she has far fewer fights to her record than Eye, she has more convincing wins. And the good news is that she isn’t so expensive that you should just skip this fight and look for another. Pena only costs $10,700 compared to Eye’s $8,700. It’s a big price difference, but $10,700 is not a big price tag for someone with such a clear cut advantage. Pena is the right choice here by far.

Best Value of the Night: Yair Rodriguez v. Daniel Hooker
This fight will give you the best value of the night if you go with Hooker on your roster. He is priced at $9,000 while Rodriguez will cost you $10,400. Hooker has more points per fight at 80.3 to Rodriguez’s 54.5. Rodriguez does have a slightly better record and has more recent wins than Hooker, but that doesn’t negate Hooker’s experience. Plus, Hooker’s most recent loss was by a decision that went three rounds. His other two most recent wins were both won in the first or second round. Even if Hooker loses this fight, which seems like a 50/50 split he will score enough points to make choosing him more than worth the tiny price that you will pay for him. Go with Hooker here.