Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, StarsDraft and DraftPot 9/29/15

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Well folks, if all shakes right this will be my last regular season baseball picks for the year. Justin and James are going to take you home from here. It's been a fun ride and I'll be back for the playoffs.

Pitchers

Pitching is weird on this slate considering some of the prices and the matchups. Kershaw and Bumgarner are facing each other which negates some of their upside. Plus neither had a great matchup to begin with. That's going to leave us choosing some arms out of the top tier.

Tyson Ross - FD 9100 DK 10300 StarsDraft
Opponent- Mil (Lopez) R Park- @Sd
If Ross can limit the walks then he becomes a solid option at these prices. Rather quietly he's put up a very nice season with a 3.13 xFIP and strikeout rate real close to 10 batters per nine. When he can limit the walks he's an excellent arm, though the free passes do bite him from time to time. They elevate his pitch count and inhibit him from going late in games. Today he's pitching at home where his numbers are slightly better on the season. Plus he's facing a Brewers team ranked in the bottom third of the league against righties. There are some big arms going on this slate, but points per dollar, Ross is a nice play.

Johnny Cueto - FD 10500 DK 8300 StarsDraft
Opponent- CWS (Samardzija) R Park- @cws
Like, but don't love him on FanDuel. On DraftKings though, he's a fantastic value, bordering on must-start if it weren't for the park. Cueto hasn't been dominant of late and the strikeouts have really dipped. That's concerning of course, but his DraftKings price is worth the risk. Though the K's are down in the second half, I just think you are getting too good a price to get away from him. The White Sox rank 24th in the league against righty pitching this season and have very little to contend with after the middle of the order. Again, Cueto's drop in K's is concerning. But there isn't any injury news to speak of, so I want to be able to trust it's a blip.

Catchers

Travis d'Arnaud - FD 3000 DK 4300 StarsDraft
Opponent- Phi (Buchanan) R Park- @Phi
d'Arnaud is a better hitter against lefties, but thankfully for him David Buchanan is bad against everyone. Buchanan has put up some some horrific numbers in his 60 innings this season, striking out less than five batters per nine and walking more than four. The 5.19 xFIP is about as bad as you'll see from someone still allowed to go out and pitch in the majors. The park plays up power to righties and though Travis hits a little lower in the lineup, I still like the matchup enough to give it a go.

Brian McCann - FD 3500 DK 3700 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Bos (Porcello) R Park- @NYY
Another catcher who's on the higher side of things in terms of price, but McCann has decent power potential in this one. In fact, I don't mind stacking some Yankees today because their prices are so advantageous. McCann's been an even splits guy this season, but for his career he's much better against righties. I like McCann's DK price much more than the FanDuel price where you might be able to find someone a bit cheaper.

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First base

Paul Goldschmidt - FD 4300 DK 5700 StarsDraft
Opponent- Col (Bergman) R Park- @Ari
Christian Bergman has been absolutely blasted by righty pitching in his limited major league career. He's allowed close to a 1.000 OPS against that split. Now I know pitching in Coors won't help you. But neither will throwing in Chase Field. If you aren't spending on the big pitchers today then fitting a salary like Goldie isn't that big of a deal. He's expensive on DraftKings, but the FanDuel price is right in the sweet spot. He's clearly better against righties, but it isn't like he's a slouch in the opposite split.

Albert Pujols - FD 3000 DK 3900 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- Oak (Bassitt) R Park- @ana
Still coming as a massive bargain pretty much everywhere. Pujols is long ball dependent, so his safety in cash games isn't necessarily secure. Though Chris Bassitt's ERA is in the 2's, the xFIP is more in the mid 4's and he isn't a strike out fiend. Pujols' has been much better against righties over the short term though some of that is BABIP related. I'm mostly considering him on the price today as it's really dipped of late. He's coming so cheap that his floor remains higher.

 

Second base

Jason Kipnis - FD 2900 DK 4600 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Min (Gibson) R Park- @Cle
I think he's a little too expensive on DraftKings where you will need to allocate your dollars a bit more judiciously. But on FanDuel he remains an amazing bargain. Kipnis, form the leadoff slot is in a great spot to put up points in this matchup. Kipnis walks at around an 11% rate against righties and doesn't strike out a ton. On the flip side, Kyle Gibson doesn't strike many batters out and walks close to three per nine. I think the on base expectation is high for Kipnis in this matchup and his FD price is almost too good to pass up.

Jose Altuve - FD 3400 DK 4500 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Sea (Nuno) L Park- @Sea
This is what I wrote about Altuve yesterday and it applies again here against Nuno:
Altuve has just manhandled lefty pitching over the last couple of seasons with an OPS real close to 1.000 thanks in some part to an elevated BABIP. But luck doesn't tell the whole story here. He's very difficult for lefties to strike out and makes so much contact that he's a favorite to put up some points in this matchup. Altuve has a 169 wRC+ and .417 wOBA just this season in his lefty platoon. These are elite numbers and only the ballpark gives me a little hesitation about playing the guy.

 

Shortstop

Erick Aybar - FD 2200 DK 3000 StarsDraft 4200
Opponent- Oak (Bassitt) R Park- @ana
The only reason I'm even considering Aybar is if he's still hitting in the leadoff slot. As we've said all season, plate appearance expectation makes a huge difference in terms of your daily fantasy averages. And since most shortstops are physically averse to hitting, we don't mind taking ones on the cheap if their teams make a mistake and put them in in the leadoff slot. Aybar has no business there in real baseball, but what do we care? Hitting in front of Trout and Pujols has it's advantages at the minimums.

Carlos Correa - FD 3600 DK 4800 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Sea (Nuno) L Park- @Sea
Like Altuve, I wrote up Correa yesterday and many of the factors remain the same. Here's what I said:
Our system is a little low on him though I think part of that is it having not caught totally up on the kind of production we can expect from Correa going forward. He's crushed in his rookie season. He's about as good as an offensive shortstop as you'll see and the stats have really put him on the map. He's doing a lot of his damage against lefties this season with a crazy high .313 ISO in that split. His lefty platoon numbers are just fantastic and Roenis Elias Vidal Nuno isn't a pitcher we need to avoid or anything. The only downside for Correa and the other Astros is the ballpark depressing power across the board. But on a shorter slate I think you take them without much hesitation.

Third base

Todd Frazier - FD 2600 DK 4300 StarsDraft
He's still coming cheaper on FanDuel where I can still get behind the play. Dan Haren is an even splits pitcher for his career and Frazier handles righties fine enough. He has an .800 OPS in that split over the last couple of seasons. Frazier has had a rough time of it in the second half of the season. Some of it is BABIP related, but he's also striking out a big more. Mostly, I like the slot in the order plus the historical averages back up this as a play in Wrigley against Haren. A little too expensive on DraftKings, but on FanDuel if you are spending up for pitching, it makes a lot of sense.

Evan Longoria - FD 3100 DK 4100 StarsDraft
Opponent- Mia (Conley) L Park- @TB
Typically with Longoria, if there is a lefty on the mound, am all over him at these prices. (Well not all over him from a physical standpoint, that might be considered poor form on my part). But there are a couple of things working against him. The ballpark is terrible for power and Adam Conley's been looking real good over his last few starts. But Longoria really crushes lefties for his career and this season as well. Longoria has a .978 OPS and 164 wRC+ in that split for the season and those numbers are in line with his career averages. So while I don't love the park and matchup, Longoria's success in this platoon is too much to ignore.

Opponent- Chc (Haren) R Park- @Cin

 

Outfield

Brett Gardner - FD 2600 DK 4100 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Bos (Porcello) R Park- @NYY
Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 2700 DK 4000 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Bos (Porcello) R Park- @NYY
These guys are coming so cheap on FanDuel that playing both in cash games could really save you money and offer a fair amount of upside. While Rick Porcello isn't necessarily a bum, he doesn't strike out many batters and has been average at best. Both Gardner and Ellsbury have seen their prices drop over the course of the second half because of some BABIP issues. I'm buying all day under $3K on FD especially with the short porch in right. Porcello is a ground ball pitcher of course, but the points per dollar expectation is too much to ignore for these guys.

George Springer - FD 3100 DK 4200 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Sea (Nuno) L Park- @Sea
Called him a near must start on FanDuel last night against the lefty and he obliged by going yard in the first. He's still in play for me today, though I don't like him as much only because the matchup against Vidal Nuno is a slightly better pitcher than Elias. That being said, Springer's had a ton of success against lefties in his first two seasons and even in a low power park, his splits make this a play at his price. The cost is especially low on FanDuel for an outfielder with power and speed hitting at the top of the lineup.

Strongly consider A.J. Pollock

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