Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, StarsDraft and DraftPot 9/28/15

The baseball season may be making a late season push for some of the playoff races, we are very much reaching the end. There aren't too many more DFS baseball slates to get some bread in on, so make them count. This is a smaller Monday slate, perfect to help you deal with the football hangover.
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Pitchers

Corey Kluber - FD 9700 DK 11300 StarsDraft
Opponent- Min (Hughes) R Park- @Cle
It hasn't been all rainbows and unicorns for Kluber this season. I mean that literally. He has other hobbies and interests besides those two things. And in a figurative sense, he's fallen victim to some blowup games for sure so it isn't like I'm calling him a lock. But on the season, his numbers have been excellent, striking out close to 10 batters per nine and keeping that xFIP just a shade under three. For me, there is really no other cash game play. I'm more than willing to live with the downside considering his prices. There's just too much upside when things are working. He's a money line favorite and the Twins are one of the worst teams in the league against righties. He'll be a popular start today and for good reason.

Yordano Ventura - FD 8700 DK 7200 StarsDraft
Opponent- CHC (Hendricks) R Park- @Chc
This one is more of a GPP play/ second pitcher on DraftKings. Ventura has shown some ability to pile on strikeouts in a game, though it isn't a consistent thing with him. But he is striking out about 8.5 batters per nine on the season and has run a little bad with the ERA as it's about 3/4 a run higher than his ERA. The Cubs strike out a ton as a team against righties (about 24%) so there's some reason to believe Ventura could add an extra K or two in this one. Again, not a safe play, but his DK price is low enough that you can pair him with Kluber.

Catchers

Victor Martinez - FD 2600 DK 3400 StarsDraft 4600
Opponent- Tex (Lewis) R Park- @Tex
At this point it's pretty clear he's playing through an injury this year as the overall numbers are way down. His OPS is only in the .600's which is way off his career numbers. Now some of that is BABIP related as he's run a little bad in that department. But it doesn't tell the whole story. That being said, there's still a great amount of opportunity for V-Mart in hitting behind Miggy and that he qualifies at C on FanDuel makes for a great spot. At his price there I'm willing to live with the downside.

Russell Martin - FD 3100 DK 4100 StarsDraft 4800
Opponent- Bal (Tillman) R Park- @Bal
He's a tad on the expensive side, but catcher as a whole is a rough shout so paying up a buck or two more for Martin could pay off. He's had success against righties over the last couple of seasons with an OPS around .800. The 121 wRC+ is above average for a reverse split and Chris Tillman isn't a shut down arm. Camden Yards boosts power for righties so I think going into the middle tier for pricing is an all right proposition.

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First base

Miguel Cabrera - FD 3900 DK 4800 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- Tex (Lewis) R Park- @Tex
He's still coming very much on the cheaper side considering his talent level. The price has come way down in the short term and playing him on FanDuel in cash games seems like almost a no-brainer. Miggy under $4K in Texas against a flyball pitcher in Colby Lewis? Sign me up. Literally sign me, get out a form or something so I can sign up to play him. Even this late in the season you can take advantage of pricing adjustments. This one is rather easy.

Albert Pujols - FD 3100 DK 3900 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- Oak (Doubront) L Park- @ana
He's pretty much home run or nothing this season, but at these lower prices it's fine simply paying for the long ball and moving on. He's had a tougher time against lefties this season but a lot of that is BABIP related as his .183 season number is about as low as you'll see this late in the season. It's more than 100 points lower than his career average and though Pujols is clearly not the Albert of old, he's still had a fair share of bad luck this season. Though opposing players can't catch home runs and in that department he's getting the job done.

Second base

Jason Kipnis - FD 2900 DK 4300 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Min (Hughes) R Park- @Cle
He's been a staple in the picks over the short term and getting the job done. Kipnis, at a cheaper tag on FanDuel, has hit safely in nine of his last ten games and outside of a DL stint is putting up a solid season. Hitting leadoff he's done the Tribe right by getting on base more than 37% of the time this season. Phil Hughes has had a rough go of it this year, striking out less than six batters per nine with an xFIP in the mid 4's. Kipnis's price is a little expensive on DraftKings, but on FanDuel you are getting a great price for a table setter.

Jose Altuve - FD 3500 DK 4400 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Sea (Elias) L Park- @Sea
I think I'd rather go Altuve on DraftKings by just a hair. Altuve has just manhandled lefty pitching over the last couple of seasons with an OPS real close to 1.000 thanks in some part to an elevated BABIP. But luck doesn't tell the whole story here. He's very difficult for lefties to strike out and makes so much contact that he's a favorite to put up some points in this matchup. Altuve has a 169 wRC+ and .417 wOBA just this season in his lefty platoon. These are elite numbers and only the ballpark gives me a little hesitation about playing the guy.

Shortstop

Carlos Correa - FD 3700 DK 4700 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Sea (Elias) L Park- @Sea
Our system is a little low on him though I think part of that is it having not caught totally up on the kind of production we can expect from Correa going forward. He's crushed in his rookie season. He's about as good as an offensive shortstop as you'll see and the stats have really put him on the map. He's doing a lot of his damage against lefties this season with a crazy high .313 ISO in that split. His lefty platoon numbers are just fantastic and Roenis Elias isn't a pitcher we need to avoid or anything. The only downside for Correa and the other Astros is the ballpark depressing power across the board. But on a shorter slate I think you take them without much hesitation.

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2600 DK 3400 StarsDraft 4200
It's getting near the end of the season and I didn't want you to think I'd forgotten about the guy. After all, we've been writing him into the picks for what feels like forever. And if you read us everyday, I'm sure it feels like infinity write ups on Peralta. Believe us, it feels the same on this side of the keyboard. But the price and opportunity are still very much there.
Opponent- Pit (Happ) L Park- @Pit

Third base

Alex Rodriguez - FD 3000 DK 4500 StarsDraft 4700
Opponent- Bos (Rodriguez) L Park- @NYY
You'll probably need to spend up a little at third base today. It's not a position I love and there aren't too many punting options to get you out alive. Paying for a guy like A-Rod could pay off. He's better against righties for his career, but has put in work in that split this season. He's crushing lefties with a fantastic .948 OPS and 151 wRC+. Eduardo Rodriguez has been the very definition of an average major league pitcher, striking out less than 8 batters per nine and putting up an xFIP in the fours. This is a little bit of an overpay on A-Rod, but I don't love going a lot cheaper.

Manny Machado - FD 3500 DK 4600 StarsDraft 5300
Opponent- Tor (Estrada) R Park- @Bal
Hitting against righties has been a much better situation for Machado over the last couple of seasons and he's an extreme reverse splits guy. Like A-Rod, I think you are paying a little much for Machado's services, but this is a guy who's put up 30 HRs and added almost 20 steals on the season. The power and speed combo give him a higher floor, especially in cash games.

Outfield

George Springer - FD 3200 DK 4200 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Sea (Elias) L Park- @Sea
I love Springer's price on FanDuel where he'll be a staple in my cash games for the shorter slate. He offers a bunch of different pieces of upside. Facing an average lefty, Springer has been better in this side of the split this season. He will hit for some power, but also steal a base here and there. From the leadoff slot, Springer has a .384 OBP against southpaws this season which works against Elias who walks more than three batters per nine. This one is rather easy for me at least on FanDuel and is would be a lock all around if the ballpark were only a little bit better for power.

Matt Holliday - FD 2800 DK 3400 StarsDraft 4700
Opponent- Pit (Happ) L Park- @Pit
Another guy coming cheap all across the industry today is Holliday. He will be another staple for me in lineups as long as he's out there. He sat yesterday so I expect him in the lineup today and if so, this is just the kind of spot and price you want. He's crushed lefty pitching over the last couple of seasons with a .415 wOBA and .955 OPS. These are among the best in the league over that time period. Coming so very cheap and should be hitting in the third or fourth slot in the lineup. No brainer at these prices.

Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 2600 DK 4100 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Bos (Rodriguez) L Park- @NYY
He's been pretty even in his platoon splits so I'm not worried so much about him facing the lefty. Eduardo Rodriguez has actually been worse against lefty bats this season, so there's some context for the lefty-on-lefty pick today. Yankee Stadium helps with Ellsbury's power expectation and his price is severely depressed thanks in large part because of some major BABIP issues in the second half of the season.
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