Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, StarsDraft and DraftPot 9/27/15

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Pitchers

Gio Gonzalez - FD 9600 DK 8300 StarsDraft
Opponent- Phi (Harang) R Park- @Was
Normally I wouldn't recommend Gio because of his tendency to wet the bed (not literally, but you get the point) and really hurt me in my cash games. But I really like the matchup here, so I'm going to throw him out there with a little reservation. The Phillies are in the bottom third of wOBA and OPS against lefties, and in the top third in K% at over 22%. This lines up nicely for Gio since he's been a little better this year than his ERA suggests due to an unsustainably high BABIP. I see him having a high number of strikeouts in this one, and his matchup against Aaron Harang gives him a solid shot at the win. Don't say I didn't warn you if he drops a dud, but I'm expecting a strong outing here.

John Lackey - FD 9000 DK 10000 StarsDraft

This is a safer pick than Gio in my opinion, but doesn't present quite as much upside. Lackey doesn't possess great strikeout stuff, but makes up for it by going deep in games and having an ERA of 2.74. The matchup against the Brewers is terrific for a number of reasons. They're in the bottom half of league in OPS and wOBA against righties and in the top 10 in K%. The real kicker here is that the Cardinals are heavy favorites in this one because quite honestly Tyler Cravy isn't ready for the big leagues just yet. He's been getting lit up ever since he made the jump to the majors, and a Cardinals offense that's getting their bats back from injury should take advantage. I like Lackey for a solid performance and I definitely like him for a win.

Henry Owens - FD 5900 DK 6600 StarsDraft
Opponent- Bal (Jimenez) R Park- @Bos
Strictly a tournament play only unless you're the boldest of risk takers. The O's have been horrible this year against lefties, and Owens already has a very strong performance against them in Camden Yards on the year. His numbers aren't amazing by any stretch of the imagination, but the price for potential here is undeniable. If you want to load up on bats today for a tournament, Owens is your guy.

Catchers

Buster Posey - FD 3400 DK 4200 StarsDraft 5400
Opponent- Oak (Nolin) L Park- @Oak
I don't normally spend up at catcher, but today I think I'll make an exception. Posey has been great over the past couple of years against southpaws, and today he gets the opportunity to face Sean Nolin. Nolin doesn't have a lot of big league experience, so you may not be familiar with his work. His xFIP against righties is well over 5.5 and he's walking as many batters as he strikes out. I like the high floor and a very high upside here, so to me Posey is a no-brainer.

Stephen Vogt - FD 2200 DK 3500 StarsDraft 5400
I don't think I've ever recommended two guys playing the same position in the same game before. But enough about me and more about this pick. Vogt is coming in at bottom-feeder prices here, and our strategy here has always been to buy low. I know he's been struggling a bit as of late, but most of that is due to some injuries and a BABIP that has for some reason plummeted by over 0.070 points in the second half of the season (aka BAD LUCK). For these prices, getting a guy with an OPS of nearly .850 and a wOBA of over .350 is stealing, and I'll gladly throw him into a couple of my lineups to take advantage.

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First Base

Lucas Duda - FD 3800 DK 4600 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Cin (Sampson) R Park- @Cin
This guy has been absolutely on fire in his past 4 games, and admittedly that has a little something to do with why I'm suggesting him. Duda had a streak earlier in the year where he made me quite a bit of cheddar so I might be a little biased, but hey if it worked for me then, it can work for you now. The main reason for this pick is that Keyvius Sampson has been getting absolutely bullied by left-handed hitters on the year with an OPS of 1.001 and a wOBA of 0.431. For Sampson's sake I wish those were typos, but unfortunately for him I double checked and they're not. I expect Duda's hot streak to continue and for Sampson's horrendous numbers against lefties to get worse.

Miguel Cabrera - FD 3900 DK 4500 StarsDraft 5400
Opponent- Min (Santana) R Park- @Det
Another opportunity to buy low here as Cabrera is normally priced about 1K more than where he sits right now. He's been his normal elite-level hitter self this year, and has an OPS of .950 and a wOBA of 0.401 against righties on the season. Ervin Santana hasn't been anything incredible this year, but in the spirit of not dissing pitchers too much on this site, he has been pretty good over his last couple of starts. Still, he's not on Cabrera's level, and I think Miggy has a pretty high floor in this one with some real upside if he can hit a long-ball.

 

Second Base

Brian Dozier - FD 2900 DK 4500 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Det (Wolf) L Park- @Det
A combination of upside and safety with this pick, Brian Dozier is the top 2nd baseman on this slate of games. Dozier has been solid against lefties in his career, and possesses rare power for a 2nd baseman as evidenced by his 28 HR's on the year. The real value of this play comes from the matchup against Randy Wolf, who has been downright awful this year. He's allowing rights an OPS of over 1.000 on the year, and even though its a small sample size, I don't see the trend reversing. I like Dozier here in all formats.

Jose Altuve - FD 3500 DK 5000 StarsDraft 5300
Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @Hou
If you want to pay up a little more for some higher upside, than Altuve is your guy. He's rocking an OPS near 1.000 and a wOBA of over .430 against righties over the past two seasons, which makes him an elite level hitter in this split. Not to mention Altuve possesses elite level speed, which can always turn a good score into a great one. Martin Perez has been far from impressive this year, and is barely striking out 5 batters per 9. I like Dozier more from a PPD standpoint, but Altuve has the potential for a monster game in this one.

Shortstop

Carlos Correa - FD 3700 DK 4700 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @Hou
Another Houston infielder who demolishes left-handed pitching is Carlos Correa. In his rookies season he's got an OPS approach .900 and a wOBA of over 0.370 against southpaws. I already mentioned that Martin Perez doesn't faze me even a little, so I won't bore you with the same story again. This is a great spot for Correa, and if you can afford to grab him highly recommend that you do so.

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2600 DK 3600 StarsDraft 4100
Opponent- Mil (Cravy) R Park- @Stl
His price has gone up a little, but now that he's produced a few games in a row it's to be expected. I know it's a running joke that we keep recommending Peralta on this site, but seriously where else are you going to get a guy with power who hits in the middle of the order for this low of a price point? If you know of one, I'd love to hear about him. But I digress. If you need some salary relief, Peralta is a great pickup given his matchup against Tyler Cravy (who hasn't exactly impressed at the big league level).

 

Third Base

Trevor Plouffe - FD 2800 DK 4000 StarsDraft 4500
Opponent- Det (Wolf) L Park- @Det
I was going to recommend Matt Carpenter as my top option of the day, but since he left last nights game early, I recommend going cheaper at 3rd base today. And what better way to go cheap than Trevor Plouffe matched up against a well below-average lefty? I've already mentioned how I feel about Randy Wolf, so I'll tell you what you need to know about Plouffe. He's got an OPS near 0.800 and an OPS near 0.350 over the past two seasons against southpaws, which are pretty solid numbers for someone at his price point. I think 3rd base is a good place to save some money today, and Plouffe gives you a pretty high floor at the position.

Jed Lowrie - FD 2500 DK 3400 StarsDraft 4300
Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @Hou
Given the number of right-handed Astro's hitters I've suggested for today, you probably have a pretty good idea of how I feel about Martin Perez. In his defense (and it's come to our attention that we need to stand up for the pitchers every once in a while) he hasn't been THAT bad on the year. But a number of Astro hitters have just been that good against lefties, and Jed Lowrie is one of them. He's got an OPS of over 1.000 and a wOBA of 0.429 against lefties on the year, which are truly elite numbers for any player. The fact that he comes in at a bargain price is just a bonus. He isn't as proven as Plouffe, but I think it's hard to pass up on Lowrie at this price.

 

Outfield

Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 2600 DK 3600 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- CWS (Johnson) R Park- @NYY
Brett Gardner - FD 2600 DK 3900 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- CWS (Johnson) R Park- @NYY
Both of these guys have fallen pretty steeply in price over the past month or so, which makes this the perfect time to scoop them up and put em' in your lineup. Both guys have run into some bad luck in the BABIP during the second half of the season which is the biggest reason for their drop in price. Ellsbury possesses more speed than power, and still gets on base quite a bit against right-handed pitching. Gardner has more power than Ellsbury, particularly against right-handed pitching. Both guys hit at the top of a potent Yankee lineup, and Erik Johnson is a slightly below-average arm. Throw in a favorable hitters park and I like both these guys at this price.

George Springer - FD 3200 DK 4300 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @Hou
Raising the Astro count for today to 4 is George Springer, who like the 3 recommended before him, hits lefties pretty darn well. He's got an OPS near .900 and a wOBA around 0.380 against this split, and that's with his high strikeout rate. That's what makes this matchup so good for Springer, because Perez has a K/9 rate of 5.21. By getting rid of the high probability of striking out makes Springer an elite level play at this price level, and I'm expecting him to contribute to the Astro's hit parade today.

Matt Holliday - FD 2800 DK 3600 StarsDraft 4800
Opponent- Mil (Cravy) R Park- @Stl
I'm not 100% sure that he's going to play today given the Cardinals constant rotation in the outfield, but if he does I'd recommend playing him. Holliday has been hampered by injuries for much of the year, but even still has managed an OPS over .800 and a wOBA of 0.350 against righties. I've mentioned this before, but Tyler Cravy isn't very good, and has actually been worse against right-handed batters on the year. Holliday probably won't be a popular pick, so he could be a good way to separate yourself from the pack in a big tournament or league.

Clint Robinson
A true value play in every sense of the word, Clint Robinson is in a very interesting spot today against the Phillies. Aaron Harang has been a steaming pile of garbage against left-handed batters, and his xFIP of over 6 in that split accurately reflects that. Robinson has been a slightly above-average hitter against righties on the season, and has produced some pretty solid scores when he's been in the starting lineup. I fully expect the Nationals to get to Harang early and often, and I fully expect Robinson to be in the middle of it (assuming he starts).

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