Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, StarsDraft and DraftPot 9/24/15

I've had a nice week or so off from writing the baseball picks while James took over the duties. It literally almost killed him as he emailed me sometime on Monday night complaining of dehydration and a variety of other ailments. I had to come out of the bullpen to write up a couple of guys that night? Did he say thank you? No, much in the same ways the Yankees never "thanked" Mariano for all those saves through the years. I'm reliable and he knew I could close it out.

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Pitchers

Early Slate
Clayton Kershaw - FD 13100 DK 14700 StarsDraft ` L Park- @Lad
It's going to be awfully tough fading him on this early slate even with the big price tag. Clayton is Clayton and he's just about the best. This doesn't guarantee a great result every time out of course. He's been merely great and not actually Hall of Fame elite over the last couple of games. The Diamondbacks aren't pushovers against lefties and have a couple of guys in that lineup who are fantastic in this platoon. But no other pitcher on the slate is anywhere really close to Kershaw so it becomes a matter of whether you play him or stack the game in Coors. For cash games, I'd take the pitcher points, but I admit it's close. I think you see lineups go one of two ways and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Consider Patrick Corbin on the cheaper side of things if you want to do the aforementioned Coors stack
Late Slate
Madison Bumgarner - FD 12800 DK 12200 StarsDraft
Opponent- SD (Kennedy) R Park- @SD
The most expensive option on the slate, but I think you can roll him in most cash games. He's a -150 ML favorite going against the Padres and it's only that low because Ian Kennedy pitches a decent game every once in a while. Everything else is going right for Bumgarner. The Padres, for such a righty-heavy lineup, rank in the bottom third of the league in team wOBA against lefties and strike out 23% of the time. Plus the ballpark will help depressing any semblance of a run. It's a little expensive for sure, but this late in the season there is always value in the bats elsewhere in the lineup.

Michael Wacha - FD 8700 DK 9300 StarsDraft
Opponent- Mil (Jungmann) R Park- @Stl
More of a Steady Eddie type than I guy I can get excited for when it comes to upside. Wacha's been somewhat disappointing in the xFIP department this season as his ERA is almost a run lower. There is a bit of smoke and mirrors going on here. That being said, the Brewers are a below average team against righties and strike out 21% of the time as a team in that platoon. Wacha won't hit the upper tier in K's in a game, so don't expect that. But he rarely gets rocked either. The win expectation has me more intrigued than most other factors.

Catchers

Early Slate
Matt Wieters - FD 2200 DK 2600 StarsDraft 4200
Opponent- Was (Roark) R Park- @Was
This is definitely a "choose your lesser of all evils" type of situation. I'm no fan of the offensive prospects on this slate once we leave Coors and that can make everything about the early afternoon slate a very dicey proposition. In this case, Wieters is the least bad of many of the catching prospects on this mini slate. And don't get me wrong, he ain't that good. But Tanner Roark is an average arm and that's about a good a case as any on this slate.

Late Slate
Salvador Perez - FD 2300 DK 3400 StarsDraft 4700
Opponent- Sea (Paxton) L Park- @KC
One thing you won't get from this guy is walks. My man's found a way to walk at an even 0.0% against lefties this season. Over 159 plate appearances, that's no easy feat. In fact, it seems like's abjectly against it, like there's a clubhouse bet or something. Either way, Perez is a dead even splits guy for his career and has run very bad against lefties this season. I don't love him, but he's cheap and catcher's very rough. James Paxton is going to challenge that walk rate because the latter walks almost four batters per nine. I suggest getting in and out of catcher on the cheap side today.

Consider Yan Gomes only because these sites force you to play a catcher.

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First base

Early Slate
Pedro Alvarez - FD 3000 DK 3700 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Col (Bettis) R Park- @Col
He should be in the lineup against the righty Bettis today. Fair warning, you are going to see a lot of Pirates on this short slate and for good reason. If you don't play Clayton then I think that's clearly the direction to go. Pedro really only hits righties and he doesn't even do that so well that we need to salivate over him or anything. But he isn't going to cost you going into this game and should obviously have big power upside in this matchup. He needs the long ball to hit value of course and the price, at least on FanDuel, is a little Coors inflated. But the DK price offers a nice floor all things considered.

Prince Fielder - FD 3100 DK 4300 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Oak (Bassitt) R Park- @Oak
I don't love the ballpark for Prince, but I do like the matchup against Chris Bassitt who's nowhere close the sub 3.00 ERA the back of the baseball card would suggest. His xFIP is more in the mid 4's with a sub 7 K rate. Fielder's rocked righty pitching to an .862 OPS over the last couple of seasons and that's buoyed thanks to the damage he's done this year as it's closer to .900.

Late Slate
Lucas Duda - FD 3100 DK 3500 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Cin (Smith) R Park- @Cin
Josh Smith has some decent minor league numbers, especially in the K:BB department, it hasn't translated to the majors yet. In four starts his xFIP is over six and he's walking everything sight. Duda's price has come down some in the short term and this is a guy with a fantastic walk rate against righties to go with a .369 wOBA. The ballpark is a big factor here as well considering Great American ranks right up there with the best hitter's havens in baseball. I love the power upside in this matchup with a high floor if Smith is wild.

 

Second base

Early Slate
Neil Walker - FD 3200 DK 4000 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- Col (Bettis) R Park- @Col
Will do my best to not go full Coors chalk on this early slate because I understand it's a little tough if you want to get Kershaw into those lineups. Pretty much can't have it both ways. I suppose Chad Bettis has some talent, but he's been cursed to an early career in Coors and that's no good when you are looking to get hitters out effectively. He walks too many batters and doesn't induce enough ground balls. This isn't to say he's all bad, but the ballpark in Denver makes mince meat of even the most live arms.

Late Slate
Jason Kipnis - FD 2800 DK 4600 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Min (Gibson) R Park- @Min
He feels like a no-brainer on DraftKings at this price. Dude's hitting leadoff and facing a pitcher with a 4.03 xFIP and K rate under seven per nine. I know Gibson induces a lot of groundballs, but Kipnis is simply too good a talent to ignore at a price tag under $3K against a less-than-stellar arm. Kipnis takes a ton of walks against righty pitchers and has put up an OPS over .800 this season with just enough speed (11 SBs) to keep the floor a little higher. He's a little steep on the other sites, but on FD bro's bordering on must play.

Consider Brock Holt or Kolten Wong if they find themselves at the top of the lineup

 

Shortstop

Early Slate
Jose Reyes - FD 3800 DK 4300 StarsDraft 5300
Opponent- Pit (Locke) L Park- @Col
Shortstop on the early slate makes me want to commit crimes against humanity. It's about the worst thing you can imagine (and I've imagined quite a few terrible things, believe me. This one time.. No wait,  nevermind). Anyhow, it's bad. Reyes won't kill you in price, though it's a push because hitting against lefties is definitely not his bag. The problem as you'll see on this early slate is that because Kershaw and Hamels are on the bump for a short slate, the offensive options dwindle pretty quickly. That and Corey Seager is way over-priced. You've got some offense problems when making a lineup for sure.
Late Slate
Jhonny Peralta - FD 2300 DK 3400 StarsDraft 4100
Opponent- Mil (Jungmann) R Park- @Stl
What's the record for one outfit writing up the same guy and what is said record? We have to be coming close with Peralta who's been a mainstay in our articles basically since the day his salary dipped below $2800 on FanDuel. Look, here's the deal. Just about any min-priced shortstop is worthy of consideration if their team decides to hit them in the top of the order. The plate appearance expectation shoots them above most of the rest of their comprades. That Peralta actually has a history with the bat makes him an easy play in my mind. I'll happily take the downside with the idea that he's hitting in the middle of the order. It might seem broken record time, but this one is easy.

Third base

Early Slate
Josh Harrison - FD 3300 DK 4000 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Col (Bettis) R Park- @Col
If he's hitting near the top of the lineup like he did last night against the righty they you are getting great mid tier value on Harrison mostly because there's such a massive bump from hitting in the park with the gravitational pull of the moon. Harrison is an above average hitter against righties for his career and the last couple of seasons his OPS is over .800 with a 127 wRC+. Getting as much money in on Coors is never a bad thing, especially when the guys haven't been priced out of consideration.
Late Slate
Evan Longoria - FD 3200 DK 3700 StarsDraft 5300
Opponent- Bos (Miley) L Park- @Bos
Do you know me by this point? Are you familiar with my process? Do you understand what's happening up in this brain? Good. Then you knew Longoria was coming here. He has a .900 OPS against lefties over the last couple of seasons. Among hitters with a requisite amount of plate appearances, he's in the elite class in this split. Garbage against righties which keeps the price down across the board. Against Wade Miley you can safely roll Longoria especially on DraftKings. And I'm glad you knew it was coming.

Derek Dietrich - FD 2400 DK 3300 StarsDraft 3300
Opponent- Phi (Asher) R Park- @Mia
If he's in or around the top of the order for the Marlins then I don't mind taking a cheap flyer on the guy. He's significantly better against righties over the last couple of seasons with an .836 OPS and 127 wRC+. Dietrich is about the most boring guy you could possibly imagine me recommending on any slate. But I think there's value for the price and matchup against Asher who's garbage.

 

Outfield

Early Slate
Outfield on the early slate is very brutal. I don't think you are getting great prices on the dudes going in Coors even if you save a little at pitching. The Rockies don't project well against the lefty Locke while McCutch and Marte are very expensive for a righty-righty matchup. This one is a tough one. I'm hesitant about even making a blanket recommendation because the options are very thin. One way I think you can go is with the Texas Rangers's outfielders. Depending on who plays, Shin-Soo Choo, Mitch Moreland, Will Venable and on the off chance Josh Hamilton, make mid tier plays with a some upside against one of the weaker arms on the slate.

Late Slate
Curtis Granderson - FD 3400 DK 4600 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Cin (Smith) R Park- @Cin
Not a guy we've written about too much this season, mostly because the price has stuck in the steady mid tier thanks to a steadily productive season. He's utilized the long ball and thrown in just enough speed to keep the floor higher. Granderson K's a fair amount, be he also walks more than his fair share, at a 13% clip this season. He has a 128 wRC+ over the last couple of seasons against righties. The Grandyman today is going in a fantastic hitter's park against a pitcher whose time in the majors has been a hot mess. Love this play on the evening slate.

Ben Zobrist - FD 3300 DK 3900 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Sea (Paxton) L Park- @KC
Don't know if you you've noticed but this guy is one of the better hitters in the league against lefties over the last couple of seasons. It's easy to overlook because he isn't flashy (literally or figuratively) and just kind of goes about his business. But his OPS is pushing up against .900 in that split with a crazy high 153 wRC+. Those numbers are right up there with the best in the league and he walks more than he strikes out in the split. That's a dude born for cash games. Like for real, his parents raised him specifically for this type of DFS capability.

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