Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Starsdraft - Week 3

Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's week 3! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft.

Last week was a rough week for Vegas, and as a result, a rough week for selecting RBs and defenses in DFS. The Rams were an utter disappointment, but at least they put up positive points, something neither the Dolphins nor the Ravens can say, despite being huge favorites against perennial offensive lightweights in the Jaguars and Raiders, respectively.

With that being said, now is a good time to emphasize a key to profitability in DFS: process over results, as my good friend Denny Carter likes to say. Vegas should be part of your process because over time, they have been incredibly accurate, and also highly predictive of fantasy production at the running back and defense positions. Will there be weeks where they get a few key spots wrong? Sure. But let’s not forget Vegas also had the Steelers with one of the highest totals on the slate – Ben Roethlisberger and DeAngelo Williams were fixtures is many a GPP winning lineup last week. Stick with the process and the results will come, which I can attest to.

QUARTERBACK

Tom Brady - FD 8700 DK 7700 Starsdraft 8800
Opponent- JAC
Brady has the highest floor this week, making him an ideal cash game play (you don’t need me to tell you he has upside as well after a 466-yard, 3-TD dismantling of one of the league’s best defenses in Buffalo). At over 30 points, the Patriots have the highest team total on the slate. The Jaguars allowed Ryan Tannehill to complete 30 of 44 passes for 359 yards and two TDs last week.

Russell Wilson - FD 8400 DK 7000 Starsdraft 8800
Opponent- CHI
Wilson’s team has the second-highest Vegas total on the slate at 29 points – unusual for run-heavy Seattle. Wilson carries more risk than Brady, particularly because the Seahawks tend not need him to air the ball out as much at home, where they tend to have more success running than on the road. However, Wilson’s upside is tremendous because of the aforementioned Vegas total and his matchup against a Bears defense that has given up a 74 percent completion rate and TDs on 7 of 47 attempts so far this season. It doesn’t hurt that Jimmy Graham complained about his role – the squeaky wheel usually gets greased.

Cam Newton - FD 7900 DK 6800 Starsdraft 8000
Opponent- NO
Before I get into Cam’s matchup, it’s worth noting that his price has dropped $800 on DraftKings and $500 on FanDuel since the season began. Unless a player is injured or sees a loss in opportunity, a salary drop usually presents value. In a matchup against the Saints, who have allowed an abysmal 9.7 yards per pass. While Kelvin Benjamin’s absence initially looked like it would hurt Newton’s numbers, Newton has been rushing 12 times per game – much higher than his career average of 7.7.

Nick Foles - FD 6500 DK 5200 Starsdraft 6000
Opponent- PIT
Foles is a classic DFS play – he’s not a guy that would normally inspire a lot of confidence, but his price and matchup leave him with a strong point/$ projection. It doesn’t hurt that the Steelers have allowed a 75 percent completion rate, 8.0 yards per attempt, and six TDs in two games.

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RUNNING BACK

Le'Veon Bell - FD 8800 DK 7500 Starsdraft 7000
Opponent- STL
Bell returns to face a Rams squad that has allowed the second-most rushing yards in the league (275) to opposing RBs. They’ve also allowed six catches to RBs in back-to-back weeks. Bell’s floor is extremely high because game flow doesn’t affect him – he failed to catch five passes in a game only four times last season,

Marshawn Lynch - FD 8700 DK 7400 Starsdraft 6800
Opponent- CHI
Lynch is a player you need to know when to use in DFS: at home. Since Russell Wilson’s arrival in Seattle, Lynch has excelled at home to the tune of 100 total yards and 1.2 total TDs per game. His road averages are 100 and 0.56, respectively. Lynch is a huge home favorite (-14.5), which is the ideal scenario for a DFS RB.

Devonta Freeman - FD 6500 DK 4600 Starsdraft 4000
Opponent- DAL
With Tevin Coleman unlikely to play, Freeman provides some salary relief as a road favorite in a game against the Cowboys that is unlikely to get away from the Falcons. Freeman has 9 (!) red zone opportunities through two games, including six inside the 10-yard line. He’s also a back where game flow is not an issue – he’s drawn 12 targets already this season. The worry with Freeman is that he’ll struggle to post a strong yards-per-carry average – he averages 2.0 this season and the Cowboys have allowed 2.1. Still, his price accounts for that risk given his red zone and passing game involvement.

Dion Lewis - FD 6700 DK 4200 Starsdraft 3600
Opponent- JAC
Lewis is an especially attractive play on DraftKings, where he’s only $4200. Lewis has already drawn 14 targets on the season, and only six teams have given up more receptions to RBs than the Jaguars. Lewis has now tallied 100 total yards in back-to-back games.

WIDE RECEIVER

DeAndre Hopkins - FD 7800 DK 7400 Starsdraft 5800
Opponent- TB
DeAndre Hopkins got caught up in emerging lockdown corner Josh Norman’s coverage last week, but the Bucs have no such corner. One of the league’s best at getting open, Hopkins has been a target monster thus far, notching 13 in Week 1 and 11 in Week 2.

Update: Hopkins is questionable with a concussion, so be sure to check his status. If he can't go, Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts become nice value plays.

Brandon Marshall - FD 7400 DK 6200 Starsdraft 4600
Opponent- PHI
Marshall has seen nine and 10 targets from Ryan Fitzpatrick in the first two games of the season, and may get even more if Eric Decker can’t go this weekend. Marshall will likely see a lot of Byron Maxwell in coverage, which is a good thing, as the Eagles marquee free agent acquisition has allowed 15 catches on 19 targets for 240 yards and two TDs so far this season.

Allen Robinson - FD 6600 DK 5200 Starsdraft 5100
Opponent- NE
Being a huge underdog usually doesn’t add as much to a QBs numbers as it does to his receivers, who tend to pick up extra reception volume against soft coverage if their team is down big. Robinson has been targeted 10-plus times by Blake Bortles in four of his last eight games dating back to last season. He’s simply a talented target monster at an affordable price, facing a Patriots defense that is currently ranked as a bottom-five unit in terms of fantasy production allowed to WRs.

Donte Moncrief - FD 6000 DK 4800 Starsdraft 4000
Opponent- TEN
It’s become apparent watching Colts games that Moncrief is the team’s second-best WR, and the numbers back it up as well. While Andre Johnson has turned 17 targets into 51 scoreless yards, Moncrief has parlayed 19 targets into 168 yards and two TDs. Because the Colts played on Monday night, Moncrief’s price didn’t increase despite a 7-122-1 line. The Titans haven’t been truly tested by an opposing passing game yet after facing Jameis Winston and Johnny Manziel, but are still allowing 9 yards per target and an eight percent TD rate to WRs.

TIGHT END

Rob Gronkowski - FD 8400 DK 7400 Starsdraft 6600
Opponent- JAC
Gronk is a high-floor, high-ceiling play against the Jaguars. The Patriots project to score over 30 points this weekend and Gronk has scored 16 TDs in his last 17 games – no one in the league is a better bet for a TD.

Travis Kelce - FD 6400 DK 5000 Starsdraft 4800
Opponent- GB
Kelce is a strong projected point/$ play against the Packers in a game with a 48-point over/under, higher than usual for a Chiefs game. Tight end is a volatile fantasy position and one of the most difficult to predict, so it’s best to roster the most talented players. Besides Gronkowski and maybe Jimmy Graham, no tight end is more talented than Kelce, who’s averaging a 5-82-1 line this season.

Jordan Reed - FD 5300 DK 3800 Starsdraft 3600
Opponent- NYG
I usually fade the Thursday players even when I enter Thursday games, but Reed is an exception – his price hasn’t adjusted to his target volume. He’s drawn an average of 8.5 targets per game (a ton for a TE) and recorded six receptions in back-to-back affairs. The Giants are strong at cornerback, but weak at linebacker and safety and teams know it. The G-men have allowed the third-most receptions and seventh-most yardage to TEs on the season, also allowing three TDs to the position through two games.

DEFENSE

Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are silly 14.5-point Vegas favorites this week at home against Jimmy Clausen. The price discrepancies between defenses on most sites aren’t major enough that you should avoid the Hawks simply because they are the most expensive option. They’re 0-2 in a must-win game against a backup QB, and there’s a strong chance they’ll dominate on Sunday.

New England Patriots
The Patriots have been getting in some sloppy shootouts, but profile is a very strong play as 13.5-point Vegas favorites. Since he entered the league, Blake Bortles has been one of the least accurate, most sack-prone, and most-interception prone QBs in the league. The Pats offense is projected to score a boatload of points, which should ensure Bortles would have ample chances to make mistakes. Bill Belichick’s defense is far more likely to confuse Bortles into mistakes than to end up with a dud fantasy game like the Dolphins did last week.

Houston Texans
With four negatively graded starters by PFF through two weeks, the Bucs’ offensive line is a weakness. That doesn’t bode well with J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney lining up on defense and a rookie QB under center. The Bucs Vegas team projection is 17 points, one of the lowest on the slate.

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