Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft 9/21/15

After an insane football weekend, I have to be real with you for a second - it feels good to kick back, watch some Seahawks/Packers, and write up a nice, short slate. Long time readers of Daily Fantasy Sports Rankings know that we actually love small slates. Fewer choices mean the difference in choosing the best guy or the third best guy is a lot bigger than it would be on a full weekend slate, and this pushes the advantage sharply toward the expert players. Even on a short slate like this, though, we'll never be able to nail every single reasonable play.

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Pitchers

Gio Gonzalez - FD 9600 DK 9600 StarsDraft
Opponent- Bal (Jimenez) R Park- @Was
There are three true aces going today, and none of them are Gio Gonzalez. "Why," you might be wondering, "aren't they listed atop these pitcher rankings instead?" I'll give you the short of it - they all have pretty awful match-ups. If I had to choose between Price, Keuchel, and Archer, our projection system seems to like Dallas Keuchel best. I may wind up doing that in cash games, if I like how the rest of lineup comes together around the pitcher position. But for the most part, I'm going to start by building lineups around Gio Gonzalez. The fiery Nationals left-hander has been fairly erratic this season, but recently, we've gotten a heavy dose of good Gio. He's got 26 Ks and 9 walks in 18 September innings this season, and two 20+ FanDuel fantasy point performances in there as well. That doesn't necessarily outweigh a season of generally sucking, but our projection system weighs more heavily who it thinks Gio is rather than who he's been recently, and it still likes him best among the more expensive guys. The main reason is his match-up. The Orioles have the 3rd highest strikeout rate and the 6th lowest wOBA in the majors against left handed pitching, largely on the back of the fact that their biggest bats (Davis and Jones) have rather large platoon splits the other way. This one might feel more like a tournament play, but I'll start by building 50/50 lineups around him as well.

Jason Hammel - FD 8000 DK 7800 StarsDraft
Opponent- Mil (Peralta) R Park- @Chc
This is the other problem today - the non-Gio, non-big name pitchers all either A) suck or B) have sucked recently. Hammel falls into the latter camp. It'd be even more accurate to say he's "had very bad results recently." He's actually struck out nearly 10 guys per 9 innings since the beginning of August, and his 3.8 xFIP over that time is slightly better than league average. Over the last two years, he's got a very solid 3.55 xFIP. Getting a slightly above average guy with 10+ K/9 upside has all the makings of a nice tournament play, and that's really all Hammel is, here. The Brewers offer opposing pitchers pretty decent upside - they've struck out at the 9th highest rate against opposing right handers this season, and are in the bottom half of the league in terms of wOBA against northpaws. He'll also be in a nice position to grab a win, here - Wily Peralta's 4.41 xFIP would be the 13th worst in the majors if he had bothered pitching enough innings to qualify. Hammel can't be called a safe play, but

 

Catchers

Victor Martinez - FD 2600 DK 3800 StarsDraft
Opponent- CWS (Johnson) R Park- @Det
This is one of the curses of a short slate - some positions are going to be dry as a bone. Catcher is looking sort of that way. Well, that might be something of an overstatement. Our system actually loves Martinez against Erik Johnson, it's just that I'm generally averse to his lack of upside. I did make the same claim before his 12 FanDuel fantasy point explosion the other night as well, I guess, so maybe I just don't know anything. What I do know is this - Martinez is very affordably priced, bats behind Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, and JD Martinez. He makes a lot of contact, which means he's got a nice high floor. Erik Johnson's got some interesting minor league seasons under his belt, but we now have 68 major league innings with a 4.48 BB/9 and a 5.02 xFIP. On a short slate like this, Martinez might have upside compared to the other crappy options at the position as well.

Yasmani Grandal - FD 2200 DK 2900 StarsDraft
Opponent- Ari (Chacin) R Park- @Lad
So, it's normally against my instincts to play a guy who's struggling with injuries, but in this case Grandal is so far off the casual player's radar that I think he's worth a look. At a minimum price, Grandal's got 15 homers and an .802 OPS in 333 plate appearances against right handed pitching this season. That's basically a 30 home run pace over a full season of plate appearances, which is pretty darn hard to find out of the catcher position. Also working in his favor is facing Jhoulys Chacin - a still young pitcher who's now 5 years removed from the one season he spent as an above average pitcher. Now, some of Grandal's power might be hampered by his shoulder injury, but I think it is a risk worth taking.

Considered: Russell Martin.

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First base

Paul Goldschmidt - FD 4100 DK 5100 StarsDraft
Opponent- LAD (Anderson) L Park- @Lad
It's a pretty close call between Goldschmidt and Abreu for the top slot, but I landed on Goldschmidt. Abreu's got the better match-up, so I won't blame you if you go with him (especially for big tournaments, since he won't be as highly owned). The simple fact of the matter is that Goldschmidt is a better hitter. And his numbers against left handed pitching this season are basically impossible. His 1.140 OPS against left handed pitching is the best in the majors by more than .030 OPS points, for one. His power/speed combo is rare for the position, and he looks like a fantastic play for any format against the decent but not great Brett Anderson.

Jose Abreu - FD 4300 DK 5000 StarsDraft
Opponent- Det (Wolf) L Park- @Det
I almost gave you the case for Abreu already, but this is mostly driven by the fact that he's a a .902 OPS guy for his career against left handed pitching, and he's facing a very awful left handed pitcher today. Randy Wolf has done a remarkable job of staying in the major leagues until the age of 39 without ever being an above average pitcher. As you can imagine, he hasn't become one at his ripe old age. Sky's the limit for Abreu here.

A cheap option to consider: Adrian Gonzalez, though I'm starting to believe the guy we've seen the last two months be who he is, especially with this back stiffness nonsense going on.

 

Second base

Chase Utley - FD 2600 DK 3000 StarsDraft
Opponent- Ari (Chacin) R Park- @Lad
Utley's a regular in DFSR baseball columns all season. The simple reason is that his price has been depressed by BABIP luck all year. That turned in August, when Utley turned in a .900+ OPS on the back of a little BABIP regression. Well, September has seen his luck turn back the other way just a bit, but thankfully the Dodgers keep batting him 2nd. He gets a ton of opportunity for a second baseman - lots of plate appearances and the chance to bat in front of and behind some good offensive players. Not much has changed about Utley from last year, when he was a reasonable daily fantasy option on the regular. His walks are a little down, and his Ks are up a little, but his ISO is the same, and I like him quite a bit for 50/50s against the generally lousy Chacin.

Neil Walker - FD 3400 DK 4500 StarsDraft
Opponent- Col (Gray) R Park- @Col
It's kind of cliche to turn to Coors Field for upside, but cliches have to come from somewhere! All 14 of Walker's homers have come against right handed pitching this season, and his .177 ISO against right handed pitching is the fourth best as his position this season. But the real deal-maker here is the park and the pitcher. Coors Field obviously needs no introduction, but you may not yet be familiar with Jon Gray. Gray is, unfortunately, kind of a good pitching prospect. But he's young, and he hasn't figured out how to win in Coors yet. Has anyone, by the way? I love Walker here for upside, and you could play him any format if you can afford the slightly increased price tag.

 

Shortstop

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2300 DK 3600 StarsDraft 4500
Opponent- Cin (Lamb) L Park- @Stl
People have been grumpy about our non-stop Peralta recommendations, but I just don't know what to tell you. Sometimes slumps just last for a while. What I do know about Peralta is as follows - he's batting clean-up against left handed pitching, and he's still got the 5th most homers and the 5th highest wOBA for qualifying shortstops this season. He's shown some signs of life recently, too! John Lamb has shown some intense swing and miss stuff this season, but you're getting plenty of upside and safety built in just based on Peralta's price and opportunity.

Big Gap

It really is a huge gap as far as our system is concerned, but we recognize that many of you just hate Peralta. So, I'll say this - it doesn't mind Tulo if you want to take a risk on it. It also thinks Aybar is safe-ish, but against Dallas Keuchel? Oy. I'll go Peralta, and try my luck spending up elsewhere.

Third base

Todd Frazier - FD 2900 DK 4600 StarsDraft
Opponent- Stl (Garcia) L Park- @StL
Frazier has been on a different planet against lefties this year. He's pounded an absurd 14 home runs in 149 plate appearances this season, and he's put up a .947 OPS in spite of actually having bad luck with his .257 BABIP. The only annoying thing here is Jaime Garcia. He's pretty much been a good pitcher whenever he's been healthy, and he seems to be that right now. He's also got a 62% ground ball rate, which makes hitting home runs a little bit tricky. Still, the last time they met, Frazier went ahead and went 3/5 with a double and a homer. So, yeah, I'd say Frazier is a solid play wherever you'd like to slot him in.

Evan Longoria - FD 3000 DK 3800 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Bos (Rodriguez) L Park- @Bos
While there are some really tough positions today, third base absolutely isn't one of them. I had to flip a coin between Longoria and Frazier, but I settled on Frazier for the reasons listed above. Still, Longoria is a great option. He has a .953 OPS against left handed pitching this season, and this is just a tick up from his clearly sustainable .920+ figure that you've been able to count on him for even as he hasn't rounded out into the superstar many pictured he'd be. A reason Longoria almost got the nod here, though, is Eduardo Rodriguez. He's a couple of tiers below Jaime Garcia (Frazier's match-up), and while he was great in the minors this season, it hasn't translated into anything more than a 4.02 xFIP. Longoria should be able to handle him.

 

Outfield

Carl Crawford - FD 2500 DK 2900 StarsDraft
Opponent- Ari (Chacin) R Park- @Lad
Andre Ethier - FD 2200 DK 2900 StarsDraft
Opponent- Ari (Chacin) R Park- @Lad
Man, with such a short slate, and three or four terrific pitchers, options are super limited. So, I'll take two lefties with lots of opportunity against a bad right hander. Crawford's getting cuts at the top of the lineup these days, and Ethier is some how chugging along at his typical near .900 OPS against right handed pitching this year. Great cheap options.

Dexter Fowler - FD 3100 DK 4200 StarsDraft
Opponent- Mil (Peralta) R Park- @Chc
Fowler has definitely been better against left handed pitching during his career, but on a day that's very light on hitting in the outfield, I think you can consider him here as well. He's got 13 homers and 13 steals against right handed pitching in just under 500 plate appearances this year, and batting in front of the big bats on the Cubs should give him plenty of run scoring chances here. I gave you the skinny on Peralta earlier, and his lack of stuff combined with Fowler's opportunity at the top of the lineup should give Fowler a fairly high floor today.

Curtis Granderson - FD 3500 DK 4200 StarsDraft
Opponent- Atl (Miller) r Park- @Nym
The Grandy Man is your high-upside answer to Dexter Fowler. With 22 homers and 10 steals and a .902 OPS in 495 plate appearances against right handed pitching, Granderson has made a lot of daily fantasy baseball owners happy this season. Shelby Miller isn't a conventionally great match-up, but he's somewhat overrated by casual players this season due to his 3.00 ERA. His 3.96 xFIP (which accounts for his lucky HR/FB%) tells a more accurate story, and Granderson could absolutely do some damage here.

Mike Trout - FD 4700 DK 5200 StarsDraft 5800
Opponent- Hou (Keuchel) L Park- @Hou
A pretty terrible match-up, but our system still likes him in a righty/lefty spot with Keuchel. If you go cheap on pitching today, you'll almost need to get Trout and a big first baseman in to get all your money in, so I figured it'd be good to let you know that he's looking good from where we're sitting.

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