Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, StarsDraft and DraftPot 9/18/15

There are a ton of big arms going today. You'll want to notice the difference between the FanDuel and DraftKings pricing. But we've got you covered with MLB plays for the big Friday slate.

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Pitchers

Max Scherzer - FD 11000 DK 12100 StarsDraft
Opponent- Mia (Fernandez) R Park- @Was
He hasn't been Mr. Consistency this season, but the numbers over the long term are excellent. Scherzer's struck out 10.5 batters per nine on the season while walking less than two. Because he lives in the strike zone so much, he'll get hit from time to time. But these numbers are just about the best in the league. The 3.01 xFIP sits just outside the upper tier of pitchers on the season. Today he's facing a Marlin team ranked dead last in the league against righties. They are a light-hitting bunch with almost no pop in the lineup. I don't think Scherzer is cost prohibitive considering the competition and he'll make an easy cas game start. The -140 ML is a little concerning, but it's only because Jose Fernandez is facing him.

Drew Smyly - FD 7700 DK 9400 StarsDraft
Opponent- Bal (Wilson) R Park- @TB
A little expensive on DraftKings, but on FanDuel he's the kind of midrange arm you can sink your teeth into (not literally, I imagine he's be pissed if you did that to him). In nine starts this season Smyly's striking out more than 10 batters per nine and rocking an xFIP in the low 3's. Those are excellent numbers for anyone, but at a $7700 price tag they look even nicer. The Orioles are a below average team against lefties on the season and the ballpark really helps Smyly's case as it depresses power all around.

Masahiro Tanaka - FD 9600 DK 10800 StarsDraft
Opponent- NYM (Matz) L Park- @NYM
He's put together a couple of nice games in a row and though he's not an elite K guy, he limits the downside by rarely walking anyone. Now, like Scherer to some degree, Tanaka's life around the strike zone can get him in trouble. He'll also run some counts long that will get the pitch count up there early. I know it isn't sexy to pick a guy against the Mets right now, what with their other-worldly performance of late. But I like the price on Tanaka. I think he's a little too expensive on DraftKings where you can similar points per dollar for just a little more money on Sale. But on FanDuel I like Tanaka's salary and think he c

Catchers

Matt Wieters - FD 2400 DK 2600 StarsDraft 4100
Opponent- TB (Smyly) L Park- @TB
You really only want to consider playing Wieters when he's facing a lefty. For his career Superman has an .826 OPS and 121 wRC+. It's been much of the same story this season as well. His dominant split is against lefties though he's facing a tougher one today. Look, there are a lot of good arms going on this slate. It's tough to avoid everyone. And while Drew Smyly isn't Max Scherzer, he's been very good this season. But Wieters won't cost you a ton at a position that's tough to fill.

Evan Gattis - FD 3100 DK 3800 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Oak (Doubront) L Park- @Hou
Obviously only catcher-eligible on FanDuel, but there you need to seriously consider working even his midrange salary into your lineup. The Grape has struggled against lefties this season though some of that is BABIP related. He's more a neutral split guy for his career and is facing one of the lower K arms on the slate. I'll get into Felix Doubront later on in this write up, but rest assured we won't mind getting some Astros' righties into our lineups when possible.

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First base

Albert Pujols - FD 2900 DK 3900 StarsDraft 5400
Opponent- Min (Pelfrey) R Park- @Min
I'll get to missing Trout in the picks yesterday which was a mistake. Pujols too. I skipped over the Angels' guys entirely for some reason I can't fully explain. Let's make up for it today. Pujols has been much better against righties this season with an .800 OPS and 123 wRC+ in that split for 2015. He has a high contact rate expectation today against Mike Pelfrey who K's less than five batters per nine. The park is no good for power, but with so many tough pitchers going today you need to target the lesser arms.

Chris Carter - FD 2400 DK 3300 StarsDraft 4500
Opponent- Oak (Doubront) L Park- @Hou
Only a tournament play for me, but there could be some upside at punt prices for the guy. His slightly better split is against lefties (over his career), the ballpark plays up righty power well above league average and Felix Doubront isn't striking out a lot of batters. That last point is the key for Carter whose biggest weakness is going down on strikes.

 

Second base

Brian Dozier - FD 2800 DK 4200 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- LAA (Heaney) L Park- @Min
I liked him a great deal yesterday and said this about him, "..., Dozier is coming just too cheap to pass up. Dozier's been an even splits guy on the season, but for his career he's significantly better against lefties (to an almost extreme degree) with an .835 OPS and .360 wOBA. I'm willing to buy more into the long term sample than the short term struggles. He's got a good matchup and the leadoff slot helps him as compared to some other second baseman on the slate." That holds up again today in the matchup against Andrew Heaney. I think Dozier is one of the highest percentage plays on FanDuel where the price helps fit in some of the stud arms.

Robinson Cano - FD 3100 DK 3800 StarsDraft
Opponent- Tex (Gallardo) R Park- @Tex
There's a lot to like about this play today. Cano's struggling again with the BABIP so far this September and the .250 number is driving his price down across the industry. Yovani Gallardo is striking nobody out this season, walking more than three per nine and putting up an xFIP in the mid 4's. The park helps boost some of Cano's power expectation as it's obviously a much better place to hit than his usual home digs. I think the price is safe considering the matchup.

Consider Jose Altuve

 

Shortstop

Carlos Correa - FD 3600 DK 5000 StarsDraft 4700
Opponent- Oak (Doubront) L Park- @Hou
He's a little expensive on DraftKings where you'll be hard-pressed to get that salary in along with a couple of bigger arms. But man, on FanDuel he's a bargain a day where you can get some cheaper big bats into the lineup. Correa has manhandled lefty pitching in his rookie campaign with a .932 OPS and 151 wRC+. Those numbers are elite for anyone, but especially a shortstop. Doubront doesn't strike out enough batters to be truly concerned. Correa is rocking in a good hitter's park and on FanDuel his salary doesn't cost you too much in the other slots.

Erick Aybar - FD 2300 DK 3100 StarsDraft 4400
Opponent- Min (Pelfrey) R Park- @Min
If he sticks in the leadoff slot then he makes an easy call for the cheap shortstop play. At a position where you usually just want to move on without hurting your lineup too terribly much, getting a guy setting the table with increased plate appearance expectation makes an easy call at punt prices. Aybar is just kind of a guy who holds a bat and steps to the plate for the Angels. We aren't going to rain down a ton of praise for the guy except that if he's hitting in front of Calhoun, Trout and Pujols it's more than you can say for most shortstops.

Third base

Todd Frazier - FD 2800 DK 4900 StarsDraft
Opponent- Mil (Davies) R Park- @Mil
Really only a FanDuel play for me where the price remains very much in the lower tier. Like we've said before, Frazier is suffering some significant BABIP issues again to start Septembers and it's driving him price down in some spots. Zach Davies is walking close to five batters per nine in his three starts with a mid 4's xFIP. Miller Park boosts power to righty hitters and when you can get Frazier's middle of the order bat in at a discount you should really consider it.

Justin Turner - FD 2800 DK 3600 StarsDraft
Opponent- Pit (Locke) L Park- @Lad
He's been getting the ball in play of late and makes a nice discounted play on DraftKings where I think Frazier is a bit overpriced. Turner's put together a solid year with an .850 OPS and .367 wOBA. He's a reverse splits guy so I'm not necessarily buying him on the lefty-righty matchup. But Jeff Locke is one of the weaker arms on the slate and there are so many aces going it gets tough to avoid the big arms.

 

Outfield

Mike Trout - FD 3800 DK 4900 StarsDraft 5800
Opponent- Min (Pelfrey) R Park- @Min
Price is very silly and I blew it by not putting him in the picks last night. I just completely skipped over his name in the list. Not an excuse really, just admitting a mistake when it happens. His salary on FanDuel is in must-start territory for me and probably will be for the foreseeable future unless there's a big correction. He's facing a weaker arm in Mike Pelfrey and Trout's always been better against righties for his career. On FanDuel, this one's a no-brainer.

George Springer - FD 3200 DK 4400 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- Oak (Doubront) L Park- @Hou
I'm obviously all over the Astros today against Doubront. Springer fits the bill as well. Out of the leadoff slot, with the power and speed combo you dream about, Springer makes a great play especially on FanDuel. He's been raking lefty pitching this season with an .880 OPS and .363 wOBA. The Astros can trend righty-heavy and make a nice stacking team today, especially the top of their order. Springer is close to a must play for me on FanDuel.

Jay Bruce - FD 2500 DK 3900 StarsDraft
Opponent- Mil (Davies) R Park- @Mil
I want to get him in lineups whenever he's facing a low-K pitcher. For his career, Bruce has been a much, much better hitter against righty pitching. But let's face it, he's struggling all around this season. He's been a below average hitter in both platoons. It's been a struggle. But Zach Davies is a below average pitcher in his own right and I like the ballpark for Bruce. He strikes out a lot, but that's diminished some with the matchup. I think you can take a chance here at a cheaper price.

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