Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 2

Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's week 2! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft.

Those familiar with my work will know that I’m a proponent of looking at tournament upside in terms of how likely a player is to score multiple TDs, which is how Week 1’s Millionaire Maker was won.

The winner, BALLAH, was able hit on four players that scored multiple TDs, plus a 3-TD outing by Tony Romo. All together, his lineup scored 14 TDs, and the only roster slot he didn’t get a TD out of was the Jets DST.

FANDUEL SUNDAY MILLION WON WITH TOUCHDOWNS AS WELL.

Jeremybronson, the winner of the FanDuel Sunday Million, also had four multi-TD scorers and a 3-TD QB, tallying 13 TDs in all.

Always keep TD upside in mind when constructing GPP lineups, and even cash game lineups. Nothing swings fantasy football outcomes more than TDs. Target players who are the most likely to have the ball in their hands (high volume of opportunities) and see a decent share of the team’s red zone targets.

NFL WEEK 2 PLAYS FOR FANDUEL AND DRAFTKINGS

QUARTERBACK

Drew Brees - FD 8900 DK 7800 Starsdraft 8100
Opponent- TB
Only two defenses allowed more 20-plus yard passing plays than the Bucs in Week 1, Drew Brees opponent in a game where the Saints are 10-point home favorites (Brees performs better historically at home, and when his team is a favorite) and have a 29-point Vegas total. Lovie Smith’s cover 2 scheme was a bottom-10 unit last season (23rd in pass defense DVOA) and started off even worse this season (32nd). Tampa Bay allowed four TDs, 13 yards/attempt, and a 25% TD rate to a rookie QB in his first start, Marcus Mariota.

Matt Ryan - FD 8700 DK 7400 Starsdraft 7600
Opponent- NYG
The Giants allowed Tony Romo to complete 80 percent of his 45 passes at 7.9 yards per attempt last week, and offered no resistance when it mattered most against a Cowboys passing game that was by that time missing Dez Bryant. Matt Ryan should have no problem similarly carving the Giants up in a game Vegas oddsmakers expect to be close (Falcons +2.5) and high scoring (O/U 51).

Carson Palmer - FD 7800 DK 6700 Starsdraft 6800
Opponent- CHI
The Bears finished as a bottom-three team in completion percentage allowed (66.8, 30th), yards per pass attempt allowed (8.1, 30th), and pass defense DVOA ranking (29th) in 2014, and Aaron Rodgers walked all over them for a 78 percent completion percentage and 8.1 yards per attempt en route to opening the season ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA. In 26 starts under Bruce Arians, Palmer has above 200 yards passing in 85 percent of his games, including 14 of his last 15. He’s thrown multiple TDs in 66 percent of his starts under Arians and 11 of his last 15.

Sam Bradford - FD 7500 DK 6900 Starsdraft 7100
Opponent- DAL
Under Chip Kelly, 62 percent of Eagles offensive TDs have come through the air, so you’re looking a good multi-TD potential in a game where the Eagles have a 29-point Vegas total. Bradford, who posted the third-highest yardage total in 50 career starts in his first game as an Eagle, will face off against Cowboys defense that allowed the 7th highest passing yards total in 2014. Also working in Bradford’s favor is that the coaching staff is willing to aggressively throw, as evidenced by 52 attempts last week.

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RUNNING BACK

Mark Ingram - FD 8000 DK 5900 Starsdraft 5900
Opponent- TB
The Saints are huge home favorites against the Bucs, meaning there’s a high chance that the game script is in Ingram’s favor. Ingram preys on situations like these: he’s averaged 0.8 rushing TDs when the Saints were favorites but scored none in games where the Saints were underdogs since the start of 2014. Tampa Bay allowed a healthy 4.56 yards per carry to a nondescript Titans rushing attack, and also let Titans starting RB Bishop Sankey get in the end zone twice: once on the ground and once through the air. It would be ideal for Ingram if CJ Spiller misses this game, but Spiller is more likely to cut into Khiry Robinson’s (27 snaps, 13 touches in Week 1) production than Ingram’s (45 snaps, 17 touches).

Justin Forsett - FD 7800 DK 6200 Starsdraft 6700
Opponent- OAK
The silver lining in Forsett’s dud fantasy against very tough Broncos defense in Week 1 was that he still managed 18 touches (including 4 receptions), which is exactly what you’re looking for in a fantasy RB. The Raiders allowed 27 rushes for 126 yards, 2 TDs, and 7 receptions for 49 yards to Bengals RBs a week ago. With no reliable pass-catchers behind Steve Smith, Forsett may be second in line for targets - he had 7 last week, tying Smith for the team lead. Baltimore should be favorite over the Oakland; meaning game script should work in Forsett’s favor.

Benny Cunningham - FD 5800 DK 4400 Starsdraft 2700
Opponent- WAS
The Redskins defense didn’t allow Dolphins RBs many rushing yards in Week 1 (53), holding them to 3.78 yards per carry, but Cunningham’s price sufficiently takes that into account. A 20-touch back in Week 1, Cunningham checks the boxes of a good value play, slated for high snaps (83% in Week 1) and extensive use in the passing game (7 targets in Week 1) because the Rams are lacking for perimeter receiving threats. As long as Tre Mason sits, Cunningham is a good value play, especially on full-PPR sites.

Chris Johnson - FD 5700 DK 3800 Starsdraft 4200
Opponent- CHI
Chris out-snapped David Johnson 18-5, and the Cardinals are two-point favorites against a Bears defense that ranks 30th in run defense DVOA. Volume has a strong positive correlation to fantasy production for running backs, and Johnson is slated to see just that in a solid matchup.

WIDE RECEIVER

Jordan Matthews - FD 7000 DK 7100 Starsdraft 5900
Opponent- DAL
Matthews was the only Eagle who saw over 20 percent of Sam Bradford’s targets in Week one, drawing an even 25 percent. The Eagles are content relying on the short passing game, with only one of Bradford’s 52 attempts traveling 20 yards or more down field, setting Matthews up for a high-volume afternoon against a bend-but-don’t break Dallas defense.

Steve Smith - FD 6700 DK 6000 Starsdraft 5100
Opponent- OAK
Smith Sr. tied for team lead with 7 targets but faced the extremely tough CB duo of Chris Harris and Aqib Talib and came up empty. That likely won’t be the case in Oakland, where their secondary is in shambles with Nate Allen out and starting CB DJ Hayden banged up.

Terrance Williams - FD 6300 DK 4200 Starsdraft 3800
Opponent- PHI
With Dez Bryant out, Williams becomes the Cowboys number-one WR. The Eagles allowed 16 catches for 246 yards and 2 TDs to WRs in the opener, and Vegas has installed a 54.5-point over/under with a point total of 25.5 for Dallas despite being without their star WR. If you remove targets to Bryant, Williams has seen 20 percent of Cowboys targets dating back to the start of 2014, but -- more importantly on a site like FanDuel – 28 percent of their red zone targets.

Brandon Coleman - FD 5000 DK 3300 Starsdraft 3600
Opponent- TB
Coleman an inexpensive high-upside GPP play. He only saw seven of Brees’s 48 targets (15 percent), but four of them were 15 or more yards downfield and another was in the red zone.

If you really want to pay up consider: Julio Jones - Julio should again be in for a big day as the Falcons face off against a Giants defense that allowed Tony Romo to complete 80 percent of his passes for 7.9 yards/attempt in a game with a desirable Vegas total. The Giants defense is OK with giving up catches in front of them, which sets Jones up for high-volume day, making him even more of an asset on full-PPR formats.

TIGHT END

Greg Olsen - FD 6000 DK 4900 Starsdraft 4800
Opponent- HOU
Olsen will go under-owned after a dud last week, but the Texans allowed a 6-106-2 line to Travis Kelce last week. Olsen’s Week 1 wasn’t quite as bad as it looked on the stat sheet: he had TD called back last week due to a questionable offensive pass interference call.

Jason Witten - FD 6000 DK 4300 Starsdraft 4200
Opponent- PHI
Witten led the Cowboys with 9 targets in Week 1 and will have to be heavily relied upon with Dez Bryant out. Witten has a chance to lead his team in targets again in a game with the highest Vegas over/under of the week.

Jordan Reed - FD 5000 DK 3700 Starsdraft 2900
Opponent- STL
Target volume is tough to come by for the TE position, but strongly correlates to fantasy success, so Reed’s 11 Week 1 targets (35 percent of the team’s total) have to taken note of even as he goes into a tough matchup this week. Reed also led the team in all-important red zone targets with two, accounting for 40 percent of his team’s total.

DEFENSE

Miami Dolphins (5100 FD, 3300 DK)
Opponent: @ JAC
Blake Bortles has ranked near the bottom of the league in sack rate (a QB trait), interception rate, and completion rate (which is a good predictor of interception rate) since he came into the league, setting the Dolphins up for a good opportunity to score fantasy points of defense as a 6-point favorite.

Baltimore Ravens (5000 FD, 2900 DK)
Opponent: @ OAK
The Raiders offense is overmatched by the Ravens defense. They held C.J. Anderson and company to 3.17 yards per carry on 23 rushes, and Peyton Manning to 4.38 yards per attempt on 40 attempts.

St. Louis Rams (4900 FD, 3100 DK)
Opponent: @ WAS
The Rams defensive line got loose for six sacks last week, and an explosive pass rush bodes well for forcing Kirk Cousins into mistakes. Cousins has thrown an interception or taken a sack on nearly one-fifth of his career dropbacks under pressure. Fire up the Rams as 3.5-point favorite in a game where Washington’s team total is sub-19.

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