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Conway Farms Golf Club - Lake Forest, IL
Par 71, 7,233 Yards
The Deutsche Bank Championship had an exciting finish down the stretch on Monday. Henrik Stenson had a 3 stroke lead going into the back nine over Rickie Fowler. It all fell apart for Stenson on the 16th hole where his tee shot found the water, and he eventually carded a double bogey. This gave Rickie the lead with two to play and they both parred out. Fowler picked up his 3rd win on Tour and further cemented his status as a top player. He moved up into 5th on the World Golf Rankings right ahead of Stenson. The excitement wasn't only reserved for the top of the leadboard this week. Jerry Kelly sunk a putt for birdie on the 72nd hole to put him inside the top 70 and on to the BMW Championship. There were several golfers that made big jumps this week including Rickie Fowler(up 19 spots to 3rd), Charley Hoffman(up 11 spots to 6th), Matt Jones(up 24 spots to 33rd), Sean O'Hair(up 28 spots to 38th), and Hunter Mahan(up 39 spots to 52nd). Their will now be 70 golfers fighting for 30 spots into the Tour Championship this weekend.
The top 70 golfers that have moved on will visit Conway Farms Golf Club this weekend for the BMW Championship. The course hosted the 2013 BMW Championship which was its only other PGA Tour event. The Tom Fazio designed course opened in 1991 and was set out to be similar to a traditional Scottish Links design. The course plays as a Par 71 and is 7,233 Yards. There are four Par 3's, 11 Par 4's, and three Par 5's(2 on back 9). I looked back at the top 10 from the 2013 BMW and recorded how each golfer did on Par 3, 4, & 5 holes. All but one golfer(Snedeker) was -5 or better on Par 4's. Only one golfer(Watney) was at -1 or better on the Par 5's. There were four golfers who were over par on the Par 3 holes. What I took from this info is that Par 4 scoring will be the most important and if you can also shoot under par on the Par 5's for the week you will have a good shot at being at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. The course is setup to make the golfers think long and hard about where to land their drives as the fairways narrow with distance and there are multiple bunkers placed in areas which are risky for longer hitters. I will be looking closely at Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation, Proximity, and Strokes Gained Putting. Below is a list of all the stats being used in my cheatsheet this week:
Jason Day
Vegas Odds - 8/1
Draftkings - $12,600
StarsDarft - $10,400
Fantasy Feud - $186,000
GoDraft - $32,000
He has been the hottest golfer on tour recently and no better time to peak than the Fedex Cup Playoffs. He is coming off a 12th place finish at the Deutsche Bank and has three wins in his previous five tournaments. He played here in 2013 when the BMW was played at Conway Farms last and finished 4th place. On a week when there is no cut you can make some stars & scrubs(not really scrubs as only 70 golfers left in playoffs) lineups and risk Day's large salary.
Henrik Stenson
Vegas Odds - 13/1
Draftkings - $11,400
StarsDarft - $8,700
Fantasy Feud - $172,000
GoDraft - $28,000
Coming off back to back runner up finishes, Stenson is surging to the top of the standings and seeking his 2nd Fedex Cup title. He has been playing his best golf of the year and is sitting among the elite players in the game. In 2013, the year he won the Fedex Cup Championship, he finished 33rd here at Conway Farms. He has been playing excellent lately and should be geared up for another solid finish. He is a steal over at StarsDraft and a good play everywhere else.
Jim Furyk
Vegas Odds - 21/1
Draftkings - $10,000
StarsDarft - $8,400
Fantasy Feud - $130,000
GoDraft - $24,000
He is one of the most consistent options for fantasy golf and makes a tremendous play for cash games this week with upside for GPP play as well. He has three top 5 finishes in his previous five tournaments. He hasn't finished outside the top 10 at the BMW in three straight years and finished 3rd in 2013 when it was held here at Conway Farms. He is excellent at these types of courses where you have to drive the ball to certain landing areas to have the best chance to hit the green. Look for another solid finish from Furyk this week.
Zach Johnson
Vegas Odds - 26/1
Draftkings - $9,500
StarsDarft - $7,600
Fantasy Feud - $123,000
GoDraft - $20,900
He won this tournament in 2013, the last time it was played here at Conway Farms. He played solid throughout that entire 4 days and was under par on the Par 3, 4, & 5 holes. His accuracy, ability to hit tons of greens and par 4 performance should again help him to another top finish here. He is a great play on StarsDraft and makes a nice cash game play across the industry.
Brandt Snedeker
Vegas Odds - 61/1
Draftkings - $7,900
StarsDarft - $6,400
Fantasy Feud - $102,000
GoDraft - $15,900
After a run in May and June where he picked up four straight top 10 finishes, he went in a bit of a slump over the summer missing two cuts and finishing inside the top 30 only once. I believe this will be the week where he turns it around and gets back on track. He was here in 2013 when the BMW was played here at Conway Farms and finished in the 8th place. He crushed the Par 5's to a tune of -7 for the week which lead to the top 10 finish. Had he shot better than -2 on the par 4's he might have won the tournament. He is ranked in the elite at Par 4 and 5's this year so look for a bounce back this week with the possibility of a lower ownership percentage due to his recent struggles.
Justin Thomas
Vegas Odds - 76/1
Draftkings - $7,600
StarsDarft - $5,500
Fantasy Feud - $81,000
GoDraft - $16,100
It looks to be a tight race for the rookie for the year honors between Thomas and Finau. Both have played well this year and these final two(or possibly one) tournaments could be the final factor. My pick is on Thomas for this week and the rookie of the year. He has been building momentum for awhile now, not missing a cut in 7 straight tournaments dating back to the end of June. He destroys Par 5's and is in the top 60 on Par 4's. Combine that with the fact he is 38th in Ball Striking, I love his chances this week of a strong finish to move on to the Tour Championship. He is a good value across the industry and safe in all formats this week.
Rory Sabbatini
Vegas Odds - 126/1
Draftkings - $7,300
StarsDarft - $4,800
Fantasy Feud - $36,000
GoDraft - $12,100
It has been an up and down season for Sabbatini but he seems to be closing it out in good form. He has six top 25 finishes in his previous eight tournaments. He comes back to Conway Farms Golf Club where he finished 11th back in 2013. His success' this year come from him being ranked 31st in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 42nd in GIR, and 9th in Par 4 Performance. He makes a nice value for the price across the industry and great cash game play.
Kevin Na
Vegas Odds - 101/1
Draftkings - $7,200
StarsDarft - $6,100
Fantasy Feud - $46,000
GoDraft - $13,400
He has put together a very solid year on Tour with one top 5, six top 10's, and only three missed cuts. He is elite Tee to Green, a good putter, and he is tremendous from the sand. His ranks when looking at Ball Striking, GIR and Proximity are pretty bad but he somehow sits top 42nd and 68th in Par 4 and 5 performance respectively. I believe he will put together a nice week of golf to extend his season one more week.
Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for The BMW Championship? Chris is selling lineups for only $5. He covers DraftKings, StarsDraft, Fantasy Feud, and GoDraft. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.
BMW Championship
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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