Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft 9/14/15

I'll let you in on a little secret. Lean in closely. Have you noticed how Tuesday appears to be the biggest daily fantasy MLB contest of the season? Kind of odd, since NFL just started, right? Won't people be distracted.

No.

They'll be chasing losses. The unwashed masses who have deposited into DraftKings and FanDuel are now staring down their first week of losses, and they want to get even. That's where we come in. The last month of baseball is truly fishing season - let's get started.

By the way - if you find yourself in that group of people chasing an NFL loss, or just want an extra edge? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tools for both MLB and NFL for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft.

Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw - FD 13500 DK 15500 StarsDraft
Opponent- Col (Gray) R Park- @Lad
And frankly, my dear, it isn't even close today. We actually doing wind up recommending Kershaw all that much because there are often so many other more reasonably priced aces, but today is a special day. First of all, it's a short slate, so our options are limited. More importantly, though, this is a dream match-up. Arguably the best match-up possible for a left handed pitcher. The Rockies have the 3rd lowest wOBA against left handed pitching this season, and the 3rd highest K rate. And the real kicker? Those numbers include both home and road games. They've got the 2nd lowest overall wOBA and the second highest K rate overall on the road against pitchers of all handedness. Kershaw's ceiling knows no bounds, here. And the Rockies starting the young and not so good Jonathan Gray only helps matters.

Garrett Richards - FD 8400 DK 9800 StarsDraft
Opponent- Sea (Walker) R Park- @Sea
So in the interest of full disclosure, I'll play Kershaw in every 50/50 and double-up tonight, so these last two plays are more for big tournaments, for me. But, if you are just too concerned with the price tag, Richards might make a pretty good play for those formats too. After an odd early season dip in his K/9, Richards has been a strikeout per inning guy since the beginning of August. While he has some bad starts on his 2015 resume for sure, he presents the high teens/low twenties FanDuel fantasy points upside that you won't really find in many guys at this price point. He also has a lovely match-up. Seattle has the 5th highest K% against right handed pitching, and are in the bottom third of the league in terms of wOBA against righties. Love Richards here.

James Shields - FD 8500 DK 7900 StarsDraft
Opponent- Ari (Hellickson) R Park- @Ari
And then there's James Shields. He'll go up against the D-Backs, who offer a good mix of risk and reward. They've struck out at the 9th highest rate against right handed pitching, but they've also put together the 11th best wOBA against righties. As for Shields, he's actually got his highest K/9 ever, and is some bad HR/FB luck from having a fine season overall. Shields' opposing pitcher, Jeremy Hellickson, sweetens the deal even further. He's been a below average pitcher for his entire career, and it's only gotten worse in his age 28 season. Shields is a fine big tourney play if you want to spend up on hitting.

Catchers

Victor Martinez - FD 2200 DK 3400 StarsDraft 4200
Opponent- Min (Duffey) R Park- @Min
If you're going to spend up on Kershaw, you're going to have to be very judicious about how you get the rest of your money in play. Well, Martinez allows you to get away from what looks like an awful position today nice and cheaply. Martinez himself is no great shakes, at this point. But he does have a lot going for him. First of all, the Tigers insist on batting him 5th due to his household name status, and that means he sees a lot of plate appearances behind some excellent hitters. Today he'll face Tyler Duffey, who had an out of nowhere good 2015 campaign in the minors, before getting called up and generally sucking. And then he was great last game. That said, I think Martinez looks like a high floor (if low ceiling) play.

If Martinez is out, Alex Avila also looks like a nice play.

Matt Wieters - FD 2400 DK 2900 StarsDraft 4400
Opponent- Bos (Rodriguez) L Park- @Bal
In the higher upside department, I present to you the superstar who never was. If you don't remember a time where Wieters was a superstar to be, lucky for you. That means you never invested everything to keep him in a huge keeper league in 2008. Not bitter. Moving on. Wieters, for all his flaws, has been more than a plus hitter against lefties during his career - putting together an .826 OPS and 37 homers in 836 plate appearances. Those are great numbers for a catcher you can snag on the cheap. His match-up is nice, too. He'll be up against Eduardo Rodriguez, a plane-Jane left handed innings eater with little pedigree. Throw in a nice hitters' park, and this one could work out deliciously.

If you can pay for it, our system thinks Posey is a reasonable play against the terrible Keyvius Sampson.

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First base

Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3000 DK 3800 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Col (Gray) R Park- @Lad
Those who have kept a steady hand and trusted our projection system (and Gonzalez) have been treated to two nice games in a row. And the nice thing is, his price hasn't adjusted for it just yet. Well, today he'll have his best match-up in a while. Jon Gray is actually not a bad prospect (he was drafted third overall in 2013), but he looks rushed, even for a polished college product. He's just not faced enough hitters of Gonzalez's caliber yet. As for Gonzalez, he'll bring his near .900 home OPS against right handed pitching, and likely continue to do his thing.

Paul Goldschmidt - FD 4000 DK 5000 StarsDraft 5700
Opponent- SD (Shields) R Park- @Ari
Miguel Cabrera - FD 4200 DK 5400 StarsDraft 5400
Opponent- Min (Duffey) R Park- @Min
It's a shame it's such a good day to spend up on pitching, because it's also a damn fine day to spend up on a first baseman! If it's odd to you to see right handed first baseman recommended at such high salaries, slow your roll. Cabrera and Goldschmidt have the 3rd and 8th highest wOBA's in the majors against right handed pitching, respectively, and both make excellent plays even against their right handed brethren. I rank Goldschmidt higher because he has shown more home run power and a lot more speed, but Cabrera and his nothing-but-hard-contact swing and better match-up make him arguably safer. Either way, I don't think you can go wrong with either.

Second base

Brian Dozier - FD 3000 DK 4300 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Det (Lobstein) L Park- @Min
This is an easy one, for me. Dozier is easily the highest upside second baseman in the game, retaining a double digit lead in home-runs over the next best second baseman, and throwing in double digit steals to boot. He's also been about .150 OPS points better against left handed pitching during his career. He's also facing someone whose name is literally Kyle "Lobstein," a left handed pitcher with no real track record whose bad 4.67 xFIP is only done by his horrid 4.37 K/9.

Jason Kipnis - FD 2900 DK 4300 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- KC (Volquez) R Park- @Cle
I guess I shouldn't say that it's a super easy one. Kipnis is a little cheaper than Dozier (at least on FanDuel), and probably provides a little more safety. His 43 BB and 50 K against right handed pitching in 353 plate appearances this season are excellent, and while he's not the huge power/speed guy some thought he'd be, his .921 OPS against northpaws is legitimately great. Meanwhile, Edinson Volquez is skating by with an ERA nearly a full run ahead of his xFIP. In reality, the guy hasn't been good since 2009, and this should be seen a plus spot for Kipnis.

Considered: Robbie Cano.

Shortstop

Brad Miller - FD 2400 DK 3000 StarsDraft 3800
Opponent- LAA (Richards) R Park- @Sea
Erick Aybar - FD 2300 DK 2900 StarsDraft 4200
Opponent- Sea (Walker) R Park- @Sea
I can't be bothered to give you distinct write-ups on these two lovelies today. Keep an eye on Miller - he was a late scratch on Sunday due to a neck spasm, but it's not considered serious. Still, you don't want to set him and forget him or anything. Miller is your upside guy, such as he is. A guy who can go double digit homers and steals passes for an upside play at this war-ravaged offensive position. Aybar, on the other hand, just isn't an upside play at all. He gets his safety by batting after a bunch of guys who can actually hit, and by making a lot of contact. Nothing exciting here, but sometimes, we make money by making the boring plays. This is one such time.

Third base

Adrian Beltre - FD 2700 DK 3700 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Hou (Kazmir) L Park- @Tex
I hate to brag, but, okay, I don't really hate to brag. Here's what I wrote about Beltre before Sunday's slate:

Sometimes, a position is so clear that the picks sort of write themselves. Tonight is one such night. I'll put Beltre first because I think he's the healthiest blend of safety and upside... Beltre is a fascinating case, because he started off the season being both bad and unlucky, and then turned on a dime in July - being good and... unlucky. He walked more than he struck out, boosted his ISO, and his BABIP never made amends. Well, August saw it all come together. He maintained his gains in his approach, but more of those liners dodged gloves, and Beltre wound up with an .874 OPS for the month. Well, Beltre has been .070 OPS points better against LHP for his career.

And I go on. Tonight's match-up is clearly not so friendly, but there's a lot going on with Kazmir that many don't seem to notice due to his shiny ERA. His walks are up this year, and he's got his highest xFIP since coming back from injury. He's also simply not the devastating swing and miss guy he used to be. I love Beltre everywhere, here.

David Wright - FD 3500 DK 4300 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Mia (Nicolino) L Park- @Nym
If you want to spend up just a little bit more, you can have the opportunity to have a real life monster in your lineup! Wright is an underrated platoon guy for his career - he's got an OPS over a thousand against left handed pitching, and over 1.100 in a small sample size vs. them this year. He's also facing Justin Nicolino, who has possible the worst line I've ever seen through 48 major league innings. He's struck out less than 3 batters per 9 innings, which means he's basically only striking out people who foul the ball off twice and then forget they are batting or something. And this isn't a new trend, or bad luck. He was toiling away with a sub 5 K/9 before the Marlins inexplicably called him up to the majors. I like Wright anywhere, here.

Trevor Plouffe - FD 2400 DK 4000 StarsDraft 4300
Opponent- Det (Lobstein) L Park- @Min
And then there's the cheap, pure upside play. Plouffe has hung around in the majors due to his power-heavy .810 OPS against left handed pitching, and he's coming off a fantastic series with the White Sox that saw him collect 7 hits (including 2 off of Chris Sale) and 2 homers in 14 plate appearances. I've given you the low down on Lobstein already, so I won't repeat myself, but this looks like a great play no matter how you slice it.

Outfield

It sure looks like a day to go cheap at outfield. Of the highest price guys, it can tolerate Trout, but otherwise, you're looking at mid and lower tier value. Here are a few guys to peep.

J.D. Martinez - FD 3400 DK 5100 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Min (Duffey) R Park- @Min
With 28 homers and an .893 OPS in 442 plate appearances against right handed pitching this season, Martinez has proven that he's not just a platoon player without a shadow of a doubt. That's as much power as anyone at this position will show you today, and he gets to flex it against a guy who hasn't found his sea legs in the majors. I don't think I'd ever take Martinez in a 50/50 just due to the price, but don't be surprised if he is on some winning big tournament lineups.

Jay Bruce - FD 2600 DK 3700 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- SF (Hudson) R Park- @SF
After a scorching hot July, Bruce had a dismal August that has left his price in shambles. A little digging, though, shows that Bruce was really just suffering from the bad BABIP bug. His .181 BABIP in July was a complete joke for a guy who makes this much hard contact, and while things aren't quite back to normal, I'll trust the track record over his last 25 games or whatever. Bruce has actually been hitting fine in the last week, if you care about that sort of thing. Anyway, for his career, Bruce has been about .100 OPS points better against right handed pitching, and he'll get a great match-up with Tim Hudson today. Huddy's let his K/9 slip below 5, and while his high ground-ball rate makes him less than a total disaster, he's still solidly below average. I actually like Bruce for safety and upside.

Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 2800 DK 3700 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- TB (Ramirez) R Park- @TB
Brett Gardner - FD 2800 DK 4100 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- TB (Ramirez) R Park- @TB
The Yankees twin left handers get another shot at a crappy right hander on Monday. They didn't get it done during Sunday's slate, but again, this is baseball(!), and that will happen. This will be their best match-up of our recent spree of recommending them, as they'll face off against Erasmo Ramirez. While Ramirez still has some room to grow, he now has 343 innings of 4.20 xFIP ball under his belt. Which is to say, he's just not very good. I like them for safety due to the price, and think there might be sneaky upside here.

Adam Jones - FD 3000 DK 4300 StarsDraft 5300
Opponent- Bos (Rodriguez) L Park- @Bal
Another guy you can throw in to a Baltimore righty stack against Eduardo Rodriguez. While Jones has been better against right handed pitching during his career, he's flipped the script and been .070 OPS points better against left handers in 2015. He's also got the second highest ISO number of his career, and just hit a home run in the Sunday night game. Jones would be a fine play anywhere you want to slide him in.

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