Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft 9/8/15

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Pitchers

There are a bunch of good arms going on this slate and yet I'm struggling to find the ones who truly stand out for their respective prices. The struggle is real here. You can play Clayton Kershaw of course, but you'll struggle to make any kind of decent lineup around his exorbitant price. You've also go Matt Harvey on a possible innings cap. So where does that leave us?

Sonny Gray - FD 10200 DK 10500 Victiv
Opponent- Hou (Kazmir) L Park- @Oak
Cole Hamels - FD 10600 DK 10300 Victiv
Opponent- Sea (Walker) R Park- @Sea
How about these two guys? Our system has them in basically lock step in terms of value on this slate. They aren't flying off the page as must starts mind you, but they each have decent matchups all things considered. Sonny Gray's facing an Astros team that strike out more than 24% of the time against righties. Now they can get after pitchers for sure, but the top of their lineup is very righty dominant. Now understand that Gray is overpriced because of an ERA that's running hot as compared to the xFIP. Be wary here as he's priced like an ace, but isn't exactly in that tier.

Meanwhile, Hamels is in a similar scenario. He's facing a Mariners team ranked about league average against lefty pitching this season. They have some righties who can put some hurt on lefties, but as a team they also strike out more than 22% of the time in this split. Hamels has much better strikeout stuff than Gray, but he also walks more batters. He is going today in a pitcher's park and is a favorite for the win. If I had to pick between the two I'd probably go Hamels because he seems just a tad safer. But that's all relative.

On FanDuel you can really consider play Aaron Nola. He's coming very cheap His peripherals are just at the point where there are hints of strikeout upside and he can limit the walks. The Braves are the pits against righty pitching this season (though they don't K a great deal). He's an interesting tournament play.

 

Catchers

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 3300 DK 4100 Victiv 4900
Opponent- Mia (Conley) L Park- @Mia
We lived through much of the lean Lucroy time a month or so ago when the price had dropped to crazy levels. He's turned it around in a big way over the last month with an .855 OPS August in which he put up a .250 ISO and 12% walk rate. He's facing Adam Conley, a league average lefty and Lucroy is slightly better in this split. I hate the ballpark which is the only knock on him as a play today because power in Miami gets lost on the beaches and in the bikinis. Power can't focus so it's basically non-existent. Everything else is working in Lucroy's favor.

Russell Martin - FD 2600 DK 4000 Victiv 4900
Opponent- Bos (Owens) L Park- @Bos
Henry Owens has some nice K numbers. But he pairs those with a walk rate close to 4 batters per nine. Martin is coming on the cheaper side of things (on FanDuel at least) and should be in the lineup today after sitting out on Sunday. Facing lefties is clearly his better split with an OPS in the .800's over the last couple of seasons. The big thing for him is the close-to-19% walk rate against southpaws over the last two seasons. That's about as high a number as you'll see and works real well with Owens' profile.

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First base

Carlos Santana - FD 3100 DK 4200 Victiv 5400
Opponent- CWS (Rodon) L Park- @cws
Carlos Rodon for sure has big time strikeout stuff. He's established as much this year with a K rate close to 10 per nine. But dude's also made it abundantly clear that the control is very much an issue. He's walking close to five batters per nine and that's where Carlos Santana comes into the mix. Santana has the same BB and K rate against lefties over the last couple of seasons (15% for each) and that kind of patience should serve him well in this matchup. U.S. Cellular is one of the best power parks in the majors and though Rodon can dial it up, I'm willing to play a guy like Santana who is above average against lefties for his career.

Freddie Freeman - FD 3500 DK 4600 Victiv 5100
Opponent- Phi (Nola) R Park- @Phi
Aaron Nola's been the definition of an average pitcher since getting called up a few months ago. Not that the guy's some kind of bum, far from it. But he's not an ace we need to avoid either. Freeman is still coming at an affordable rate on FanDuel and the power expectation is there in this park. He's been one of the best hitters in baseball against righties over the last couple of seasons with a high .800's OPS and fantastic .385 wOBA. Went yard last night, and while I don't use that kind of thing as an barometer for future success, it at least feels good to say.

 

Second base

Neil Walker - FD 2400 DK 3400 Victiv 4700
Opponent- Cin (Iglesias) R Park- @Cin
The Pirates swap around pieces of their order from time-to-time so it isn't like I can trust Walker sticks in the two hole for this game. But assuming he's in the same spot in the lineup, I think you can take a chance on him at these prices. Now, while Walker is coming very cheap for a guy who can definitely hit righty pitching, the matchup isn't necessarily ideal against Rasiel Iglesias who's been mowing batters down of late. I'd really only consider Walker as a price play and he's more appealing since the rest of the position is very thin.

Brian Dozier - FD 3100 DK 4400 Victiv 5100
Opponent- KC (Volquez) R Park- @KC
I'm no fan of Edinson Volquez and think he brings very little in the way of resistance for opposing batters. Even this season the 4.26 xFIP is worse than league average and his K rate is in the low 6's. Dude just isn't an imposing force and Dozier is just good enough against righties to warrant consideration. Now the ballpark doesn't do him any favors, but Dozier has the power and speed combo going from the leadoff slot which keeps the floor very high for cash games.

 

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki - FD 3500 DK 3900 Victiv 5600
Opponent- Bos (Owens) L Park- @Bos
He's been dropped out of the lead off slot of course, but there's still so much to like about Tulo. The price has dropped steadily over the short term and he's incredibly affordable across the industry. He's been rocking a BABIP in the mid .200's for the last two months which has helped in driving down the price even with his walk rate up a bit. He's facing Henry Owens today and Tulo's one of the true lefty killers in baseball. Over the last couple of seasons (Coors-aided of course) Tulo's put up an 1.100 OPS and just insane .476 wOBA. Even with the ballpark helping these are Hall of Fame numbers. He's a stud, and even with the drop in the order Tulo makes for a great value on this slate.

Brandon Crawford - FD 2500 DK 3900 Victiv 4800
Opponent- Ari (Anderson) R Park- @Ari
I don't think I'd play him at the same price over Tulo on DraftKings, but on FanDuel you can take a healthy discount on the dude against the righty Chase Anderson. Crawford's done well against righty pitching the last couple of seasons with an OPS over .800. He strikes out a lot, but the ballpark does boost the power expectation with Chase Field rating out as one of the best power parks in baseball. Crawford isn't a guy we talk about a great deal, but today he's in the mix.

Third base

Evan Longoria - FD 3000 DK 4000 Victiv 5000
Opponent- Det (Boyd) L Park- @Det
Matt Boyd hasn't been as bad as his mid 8.00's ERA would suggest, but it isn't like he's been Sandy Koufax with bad luck. Dude's xFIP is in the mid 5's and he's only striking out about six batters per nine. Longoria has continued to rake lefties over the last two seasons with an OPS close to .900 and a 145 wRC+. This is his dominant split by a mile and he's typically a great bargain when a southpaw is on the mound because the righty at bats keep the price down.

Justin Turner - FD 2800 DK 3200 Victiv 3700
Opponent- LAA (Heaney) L Park- @Ana
Andrew Heaney just isn't the low 3's ERA guy you see on the back of his baseball card (assuming people still look at those, which I'm not sure is the case). He has a lower K rate and the xFIP is more like in the mid 4's. Justin Turner is a low .800's OPS guy against lefties with a 129 wRC+. I like Longoria significantly better, but I'm contractually obligated to write about two third basemen here so Turner is who you get.

 

Outfield

Brett Gardner - FD 2900 DK 4200 Victiv 5000
Opponent- Bal (Gausman) R Park- @NYY
Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 3000 DK 3900 Victiv 5100
Opponent- Bal (Gausman) R Park- @NYY
Short porch in right calling out today. Kevin Gausman is a flyball pitcher going in one of the ballparks where that profile can really bum you the f#$% out. Yankee Stadium is second in the league for lefty power only to Coors and both Garner and Ellsbury, while not traditional power hitters, have been known to take advantage of the dimensions from time to time. Gausman is an up and down pitcher who can struggle at times. I like the prices on these Yankee lefties, especially on FanDuel where they make solid cash game plays at their salaries.

Brandon Guyer - FD 2400 DK 3000 Victiv 3400
Opponent- Det (Boyd) L Park- @Det
If you're looking to go super cheap so you can fit some pitching into the mix then Guyer always makes an interesting play against lefties. He has a 133 wRC+ against lefties over the last couple of seasons and that number makes him an excellent play at these punt prices when a southpaw is on the mound. I detailed Matt Boyd's particular brand of stink when I wrote up Longoria so I won't dive back down that well. Just know that the numbers haven't been all that positive. Guyer hits leadoff against lefties and should be there again in this matchup.

Khris Davis - FD 3200 DK 3600 Victiv 4700
Opponent- Mia (Conley) L Park- @Mia
Like everything but the ballpark for a guy hitting in the cleanup slot for the Brewers. He's struggled in this split over the last couple of seasons, but much of that's been BABIP driven. Makes an interesting mid-range play and I really like the DraftKings price if you are trying to get some big money pitchers in on the slate.

And infinity cheap guys

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