Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft 9/7/15

Labor Day is here! Kids up here in the Northeast are headed back to school (suckers), and we get a full slate of Monday baseball to watch while trying to piece together exactly what we're supposed to be celebrating on Labor Day, anyway. To that end, this really is a huge slate of baseball. I'll give you a few great plays for the day, but there's no way I could get to every playable guy with any sort of reasonable analysis.

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Pitchers

Max Scherzer - FD 10800 DK 12400 Victiv
Opponent- NYM (Niese) L Park- @Was
This is just a phenomenal value spot for your 50/50s and double-ups. Max hasn't had a win since July, which has greatly depressed his price compared to the kind of pitching he's capable of. This is a good thing for us daily fantasy baseball players. Scherzer is an ace's ace for fantasy purposes - his 10.71 K/9 is the fourth best in the majors among qualified starters, and his 2.96 xFIP is good for 8th. He'll also face the Mets, who, in spite of their recent successes, have still been generally bad against right handed pitching all season. They have the 7th lowest wOBA vs. righties, and are in the top half of the league for strikeout percentage as well. Scherzer's priced as something just under a top tier ace, making him a tremendous value for your 50/50s and double-ups today.

Michael Wacha - FD 9400 DK 10300 Victiv
Opponent- Chc (Haren) R Park- @Stl
Wacha had been one of the most consistent daily fantasy performers for a good stretch before missing a start to get a little rest as we head into September. Well, this is a nice match-up to walk back into. The Cubs have struck out an astronomical 24% of the time (just .1% off the league leading Astros), and have also been worse on the road by any offensive metric. They'll also be trotting out Dan Haren - a shell of his former self, who is sporting the league's 6th worst xFIP. If for some reason you decide to fade Scherzer (I wouldn't), I think Wacha makes for an interesting 50/50 play, but really I think there's a lot of upside here for any format given the opponent.

Michael Pineda - FD 8600 DK 8400 Victiv
Opponent- Bal (Chen) L Park- @NYY
Pineda has vacillated between incendiary and insufferable for his fantasy owners this season, so this is by no means a 50/50 recommendation. Buuuut, I'd say there's actually quite a lot to love, here. First of all, Pineda has some of the best peripherals in the majors this season. His 2.79 xFIP is better than all but 5 qualifying pitchers, he's striking out a guy an inning, and walking pretty much no one. His bad BABIP luck has ballooned his ERA above 4, but the underlying pitcher is still very effective. Complicating matters is the Baltimore Orioles. They've struck out at the 3rd highest rate (just behind the Cubs) against right handed pitchers, but they also have the 7th highest wOBA - making them a feast or famine match-up. If the chips fall right, Pineda could win you a big tournament. If they don't, he could really fall apart. I'll take the gamble with you, at least a little bit.

An interesting punt? Patrick Corbin. He's actually a real pitcher, but he's priced like some off-the-bus bum. He's had some nice games, and there's a chance he does a number on the Giants here.
 

Catchers

Buster Posey - FD 3200 DK 4300 Victiv 5600
Opponent- Ari (Corbin) L Park- @Ari
Posey was our headlining catcher last night, and he predictably obliterated the Rockies for 9 FanDuel fantasy points. Well, not a whole lot has changed going into tonight's game. Well, that's not exactly true. While Posey is the same guy who has a .950+ OPS against left handed pitching for his career, he's facing a left handed ground-ball pitcher of a similar ability in a good hitter's park. Now, Arizona is a better spot for pitchers than Colorado, but it's still one of the best hitter's parks in baseball. And, the real kicker here - Posey's price has dropped dramatically. It's really hard to envision grabbing anyone else for any savings consideration when he's on the board for $3,200 on FanDuel in any format.

Yasmani Grandal - FD 2200 DK 3100 Victiv 4100
Opponent- LAA (Tropeano) R Park- @Ana
Grandal will return from a day of rest to head across town to face the Anaheim Angels. Now, Grandal's production has dropped off dramatically from when he was looking like the next great switch-hitting catcher, but he's still got a career .791 OPS against right handed pitching - a more than serviceable number for any catcher. For a minimum priced guy on FanDuel? It's a dream scenario. Today he'll face Nicholas Tropeano, a righty with the potential to strike guys out, but who has been plagued by giving up very hard hit balls at every level. I love Grandal if you want to grab a little off-beat upside, and go away from the hordes that will follow Posey. He's a fine play for double-ups as well, if for some reason you just need to save the $1,000.

Evan Gattis - FD 3000 DK 3800 Victiv 4900
Opponent- Oak (Doubront) L Park- @Oak
The huge upside option at catcher today. Gattis' 22 homers would rank him at 2nd in the majors at the catcher position (if he had played enough to qualify), and he's facing a pitcher in Felix Doubront who has struggled with the long ball throughout his career (although the 47 innings in the majors this year have gone a different way). Gattis has been about .030 OPS points better against left handed pitching during his brief major league stint, and he has power for the position that you don't see often. An interesting play for big tournaments, especially as part of an Astros stack.

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First base

Paul Goldschmidt - FD 4500 DK 5500 Victiv 5800
Opponent- SF (Leake) R Park- @Ari
A little bit of a stretch, price-wise, for Goldschmidt, but the upside here is undeniable. Goldschmidt is better against lefties, sure, but his .981 OPS against righties is good for 6th in the majors in that category as well. He's also been about .120 OPS points better at home this season. As for Mike Leake, he's a definition league average pitcher, so we can rely on Goldschmidt's power to move you to get us the production we need today.

Freddie Freeman - FD 3500 DK 4500 Victiv 5100
Opponent- Phi (Harang) R Park- @Phi
Freeman's season line is something less than exciting, but our projection system isn't deterred. He's shown reasonable power against right handed pitching this season (14 homers in 286 plate appearances), and perhaps more importantly, he's shown a fantastic approach. His K's are down, and his .913 OPS against northpaws is .030 points higher than his career levels. But what really drives this ranking is the match-up. What's left of Aaron Harang has a 4.95 xFIP this season, the 2nd worst in the majors among those who have had the ungainly opportunity to pitch enough innings to qualify. Throw in the friendly Citizen's Bank park, and this is a hitter's dream. Play him anywhere you like.

Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3100 DK 4100 Victiv 4800
Opponent- LAA (Tropeano) R Park- @Ana
Gonzalez, like Grandal, has seen a precipitous decline in his production over the second half of the season. Like Grandal, his price has followed, making him an excellent value play in circumstances like this. He's still a guy who has 22 homers and an .862 OPS against right handed pitching this season, and that absolutely plays for these prices. Nick Tropeano is a below average major league pitcher (at best), and I think Gonzalez is a fine play in any format.

 

Second base

Anthony Rendon - FD 3300 DK 3500 Victiv 5100
Opponent- NYM (Niese) L Park- @Was
We gave you Rendon as the top play in yesterday's slate in a very similar situation. Here's what I wrote:

Rendon is not a huge upside guy. He doesn't hit home runs, and he doesn't really steal bases. But! He can hit left handed pitching, and he'll have lots of opportunity today. He's been about .050 OPS points better against lefties for his career, and he'll be facing a lefty with no track record of major league success. He's always been raw, but he has been awful in the majors - posting a K rate below 6, and a walk rate over 4. I love Rendon for 50/50s and double-ups.

Good thing I went off about how Rendon doesn't home runs, because he went out and hit a 393 foot monster in the fourth inning. So, yeah. The match-up with Niese is nowhere near as good as the match-up with Banuelos, but it's not exactly scary, either. Niese's walks are up, his strike-outs are down, and his xFIP is at its highest since 2009. A great spot to grab Rendon again, though I'd only touch him for double-ups.

Robinson Cano - FD 3200 DK 3400 Victiv 5200
Opponent- Tex (Gallardo) R Park- @Sea
It's kind of funny to recommend two guys at the same price point who are so similar, but that's the nature of the beast sometimes. Cano's a little different than Rendon, though. He's got a little more power, but is hitting in a much worse park. Gallardo, though, is a significant step behind Niese. While his ERA has kept its head above water, it's been the definition of smoke and mirrors. His K/9 is at an all time low (for him), and his walks have slipped back in the other direction. Cano should be able to make a lot of hard contact, making him a high floor play.

Brian Dozier - FD 3000 DK 4500 Victiv 5100
Opponent- KC (Ventura) R Park- @KC
Dozier is another repeat from last night, in something of a similar situation. We gave you him for upside reasons even against a tough pitcher in Keuchel because he man can just do yard-work against left handed pitching. Well, he did. Today, the reasoning is both different and the same. Dozier has shown real improvements against right handed pitching this season - popping 20 homers and swiping 8 bags with right handed arms on the mound. He's still got the same double-digit lead in home runs over the next highest 2nd baseman, and upside at 2B remains notoriously hard to find. Ventura has been electric recently, so this isn't for the faint of heart, but upside is your thing, Dozier remains an interesting tournament play.

 

Shortstop

Jimmy Rollins - FD 2700 DK 3200 Victiv 4500
Opponent- LAA (Tropeano) R Park- @Ana
J-Roll was a top recommendation last night, and even though he went hitless, his performance should tell you exactly why he's underpriced. He managed 4.25 FanDuel fantasy points on the back of a couple of walks and a steal, and nights like that are just going to happen when you lead-off for a decent team. Rollins now has 13 homers and 10 steals on the season, making him a guy who has a little upside to go with the safety of batting lead-off. Still, though, he's more of a double-up play to me.

Xander Bogaerts - FD 3400 DK 3800 Victiv 4800
Opponent- Tor (Buehrle) L Park- @Bos
Xander Bogaertrs is the perfect big tournament play for one reason - his dramatic platoon splits. The 22 year old has zapped left handed pitching for a .927 OPS this season, a pretty remarkable feat for a man of his age, and he seems to be getting more confident as the season progresses. Well, this might be his very best match-up of the season. He'll be hitting in his friendly home park, and he'll be up against Mark Buehrle. The Jays' lefty has the lowest K/9 in the majors among qualified pitchers, and it isn't even close. His awful 4.21 K/9 is lower than his fairly dismal 4.31 xFIP, giving Bogaerts plenty of opportunity to spray his trademark lasers around.

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2200 DK 3300 Victiv 4300
Opponent- Chc (Haren) R Park- @Stl
A nightly recommendation while he's at this price point, and you can turn your nose up all your like at his recent slump, but daily fantasy baseball rewards the steady hand. Peralta's still hitting in the heart of the order, he's still got the 3rd most homers in the majors at his position, and he's been just fine against right handed pitching both this season and throughout his career. As for Dan Haren, he's basically terrible at this point. He's got the 6th worst xFIP among qualified MLB pitchers, and the 2nd lowest ground-ball rate in the league. I love this as an upside play, and believe he's plenty safe as well.

Third base

Todd Frazier - FD 2300 DK 4400 Victiv 5000
Opponent- Pit (Locke) L Park- @Cin
Quite simply, Frazier has been more than a monster against left handed pitching this season. He's homered once every ten plate appearances against southpaws, and has a terrific .975 OPS. He'll likely bat 2nd for a good lineup, and he's near the minimum price. So, I honestly have no idea why you wouldn't play him here. Jeff Locke certainly doesn't qualify as an adequate reason. The Bucs' lefty does one thing pretty well (generate ground balls), but is solidly below average at everything else. Love Frazier here.

Evan Longoria - FD 3000 DK 4300 Victiv 5000
Opponent- Det (Wolf) L Park- @Det
Longoria is somewhat of a more expensive Todd Frazier, but with a much better match-up. They do differ a bit, though. Longoria has a .965 OPS against lefties this season, but generates his value with a solid approach more than bell-tower power. To that end, I'll call him more of a safety play instead of an upside play, but I can picture playing in any format. The main reason there is Randy Wolf. He's a fascinating guy, to me, because he's managed a 16 major league career without ever really being above average. Well, as you can guess, he's not exactly peaking at age 39. Love Longo here.

Justin Turner - FD 2700 DK 3300 Victiv 3700
Opponent- LAA (Tropeano) R Park- @Ana
Turner's another unusual player. His oddity? He's a righty who's always been better against right handed pitching. His .092 OPS advantage against rgiht handed pitching is one of the more dramatic reverse platoon splits I've seen, and it's been even more dramatic this season. In 2015 he's put up a .908 OPS against northpaws. For these prices, you could certainly do a lot worse. Now, to be clear - I like Longoria and Frazier quite a bit better. But if you want to stack some Dodgers against Tropeano today, Turner is definitely a worthwhile addition.

 

Outfield

Carlos Gomez - FD 2800 DK 3900 Victiv 4900
Opponent- Oak (Doubront) L Park- @Oak
George Springer - FD 3700 DK 4400 Victiv 5400
Opponent- Oak (Doubront) L Park- @Oak
Like both of these guys today for different reasons. For Gomez, it's a sheer function of price. Our system just thinks he can do more than what these prices suggest he can, especially against a below average guy like Doubront. Springer? He's the sheer upside guy. Major league lefties have not been able to fool Springer. His 16% walk rate is excellent, his .258 ISO speaks to his legit power, and his speed gives him the green light when he wants it. He's coming into his own as a burgeoning 25/25 (or even 30/30) guy, and it's largely taking place in match-ups like this. Love him for any format, though he might be a little risky for some in double-ups.

Brandon Moss - FD 2700 DK 3500 Victiv 4500
Opponent- Chc (Haren) R Park- @Stl
Moss has been terrific ever since entering the starting line-up for the Cards, and with a pair of homers in September, he's showing plenty of upside as well. Moss is batting 5th behind some excellent hitters, and has a fantastic match-up with Dan Haren today. He's been about .050 OPS points better than righties for his career, as well. He might be more of an upside guy, but these low prices probably mean he's a value in any format.

Carl Crawford - FD 2600 DK 2600 Victiv 4000
Opponent- LAA (Tropeano) R Park- @Ana
Andre Ethier - FD 2400 DK 3100 Victiv 3600
Opponent- LAA (Tropeano) R Park- @Ana
Just another pair of Dodgers who you can consider today, though these are more in the super-cheap double-up filler category. Crawford's been a daily fantasy baseball player's double-up dream recently, scoring 2.5 FanDuel points or more in 8 of his last contests on near minimum prices. Ethier has been more hit or miss, but has a few big performances under his belt against right handed pitching. I don't think his power will play here, but I don't think you'll need it to pay value.

And infinity cheap guys - Rajai Davis is one. But too many to name, and I've got a big Labor Day ahead of me tomorrow! If you want to grab a free three day trial to the projection system that informs these picks every night?

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