Daily Fantasy MMA Picks - UFC 191 Battle in Vegas

Saturday, September 5th, will see UFC 191 going off in Las Vegas. The fights promise to be exciting and as always, there’s already a lot of hype around a few of them. Let’s look at some of the interesting daily fantasy opportunities that have popped up and see what the best approaches are for drafting a roster full of winners.

Demetrious Johnson vs John Dodson

The Johnson-Dodson match is the current headlining fight for this weekend’s UFC 191. Johnson is by far the favorite in this match, simply because he has defended his flyweight title so many times. DraftKings has reflected this fact with the way that they’ve priced the fighters. Johnson’s salary is $11,400. Dodson’s is $8,000. However, historically speaking, Dodson has been scoring 0.8 more fantasy points per fight on average over the last year. In the end, this shouldn’t be the sole influencer, but it does create an interesting opportunity. You want to draft fighters that have a realistic chance of winning, but the way the daily fantasy MMA draft is set up, you will need to choose underdogs. The dogs you draft should be able to score a lot of points, and Dodson has a good shot of doing this. His low salary creates value opportunity, too. The facts cannot be denied, though. The last time these two fighters clashed, Dodson lost, although he did score a knockdown against Johnson. That was in 2013, and a lot has happened since then. Either way, this should be a good fight. It just might not be the best fight to use in your fantasy roster.

Anthony Johnson vs Jimi Manuwa

Johnson fought last in May, where he lost by submission. He’s the current favorite here, but Manuwa is coming out of his last fight with a win by decision. Manuwa has the momentum on his side, although he doesn’t have quite the same experience as his competition. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, though. Johnson is overpriced in this matchup at $11,500, while Manuwa is only $7,900. Johnson might be the superior fighter, but the value of Manuwa here seems almost too good to pass by on. Drafting Manuwa would open up a lot of opportunities in other places on your roster, and because he’s so cheap, you could potentially draft all favorites after him. This is a consideration, especially because the fighters are much closer in talent than what their prices reveal.

Paul Felder vs Ross Pearson

Felder is the favorite in this matchup and is priced at $11,200. Pearson is a good fighter and is able to go the distance regardless of whether he wins or loses. Felder has the definite advantage, and should be considered above Pearson, but if you do need to draft a dog that has point potential, this is one of the fights to look at. If Pearson loses, it will more than likely not be in the first or second round as most of his fights go three. He’s priced at just $8,200, which is a nice cushion on your roster and opens up money elsewhere. This is not something that should be considered as your primary strategy, but if it is needed, it can be considered.

Nazareno Malegarie vs Joaquim Silva

This is one of those fights were neither fighter has posted any fantasy points, which means that their pricing is purely conjecture. Both have fight experience, but nothing in as big of a fight as this one. Malegarie has a record of 28-4, which seems very impressive compared to Silva’s 7-1, but these are all from much less important fights against weaker competition. The pricing posted on DraftKings is an estimate, which means that both are on pretty equal footing. Malegarie is the slight favorite, but again, that’s just a rough guess. If you are looking for a good place to save a few bucks in salary, going with Silva at $9,200 is a good place to start. Just know that this fight could go either way simply because of the lack of information out there.

Best Pick of the Night: John Lineker

Lineker has much more fight experience than his challenger, Francisco Rivera. Lineker is the favorite, but because these two fighters are so close in talent, both are underpriced. Going with Lineker at $9,800 gives you a favorite for cheap, but it also will help to boost your fantasy point total at some sites. He’s averaging 75.1 fantasy points per fight, which is much higher than Rivera’s potential at 53.9. This isn’t a top fight on the night’s card, but there’s a ton of fantasy potential here.