Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 8/28/15

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Pitchers

Max Scherzer - FD 11500 DK 12500 Victiv
Opponent- Mia (Conley) L Park- @Was
There are some big time studs going on this Friday slate and I don't think you'll be able to fade all of them. The ways things are lining up, I suspect you see some monster pitching performances. The best bang for your ace buck is in Scherzer who's put together one heck of a first season in Washington. He was skipped last start in a rotation shuffle, but Scherzer has lit up the peripherals this season striking out more than 10.5 batters per nine, walking less than 1.5 per nine and sporting a 2.97 xFIP. He's an ace's ace and faces a Marlins' squad that ranks dead last in the league against righty pitching this season. They are a light hitting bunch up and down the lineup and Max's a heavy favorite for the win. That he comes at a nice discount as compared to Kershaw makes him the clear play for me today.

Clayton Kershaw - FD 13000 DK 14400 Victiv
Opponent- Chc (Hammel) R Park- @Lad
That being said, I'd be remiss by leaving Clayton off the picks all together. The only thing keeping him below Scherzer is the price because everything else Kershaw does is of course elite. He has a league best 2.12 xFIP, strikes out more than 11 batters per nine and refuses to walk dudes. That profile works for some upside even at these prices against the Cubs who strike out close to 25% of the time against lefties. They can hit, but the strikeout upside for Kershaw today is through the roof. Again, only the high tag and the existence of Scherzer keeps Kershaw from being the top play.

Francisco Liriano - FD 9500 DK 10000 Victiv
Opponent- Col (Gray) R Park- @Pit
If you want to save just a little in order to squeeze some bats (or looking to go double expensive on a site like DraftKings) Liriano's matchup against the Rockies rates as a solid spot for the lefty. The walks are always an issue for Liriano, but he has close to elite strike out stuff going this season, putting down more than 9.5 batters per nine. The Rockies rank third to last in team wOBA against lefties this season and that's not even adjusted for Coors. If it were they'd likely be at the bottom. They strike out a ton and have almost nothing in the way of righty power. Franky's in a nice spot here.

Catchers

Brian McCann - FD 3400 DK 4000 Victiv 4800
Opponent- Atl (Perez) R Park- @Atl
He isn't coming that cheap, especially with the big pitchers out there. But he's about the best raw points catcher on the slate and won't totally break the bank for you. McCann's put together a fine enough season with an OPS creeping around .800. BABIP will forever kill the guy hitting into shifts so that's just something we'll have to live with. His super low number in that regards doesn't look all the fluky over this sample size. Williams Perez, as I'll get to later, is trash. Dude's allowed a mid .800's OPS to lefty bats so far this season and really struggles to get them out. McCann, if you can afford the extra bucks, is the best overall catcher going.

Wilson Ramos - FD 2700 DK 3400 Victiv 4200
Opponent- Mia (Conley) L Park- @Was
Man, catcher ain't easy today. Not at all and if you need to go a little cheaper I suppose you can go with Ramos. Our system likes him on a points per dollar play, but understand that it hates catcher as a whole so this isn't necessarily going to be a write up laced with superlatives about Ramos. He's a cheaper catcher who plays. How's that for a ringing endorsement? With so many tough arms going on this slate, and so many weak hitting catchers, something has to give here.

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First base

Mark Teixeira - FD 3200 DK 4500 Victiv 4900
Opponent- Atl (Perez) R Park- @Atl
Greg Bird - FD 3000 DK 3400 Victiv 3500
Opponent- Atl (Perez) R Park- @Atl
These picks are going to be Yankee-heavy. That's what happens when you play against the worst arm on a slate jammed with tough dudes on the bump. Tex is nursing an injury, but looks like he could be back in the mix on Friday. If not, I don't mind playing Bird assuming he's among the first six in the order. Either one makes for a cheaper play at the position. While the ballpark isn't Yankee Stadium, it does play about average for lefty power. Like I said with McCann, Perez is getting crushed by lefty bats this season. And though Tex is better for his career against lefty pitching, I'll easily take him in this split against the weaker arm.

Prince Fielder - FD 3100 DK 4000 Victiv 5200
Opponent- Bal (Gausman) R Park- @Tex
Not a fantastic play considering Gausman's been damned good of late and really all year. But you are getting Fielder at somewhat of a discount in a great hitter's park. He's handled righty pitching over the last couple of seasons with a high .800's OPS. Like I said before, Gausman is an above average arm with a decent strikeout rate. This is more about the position having limited options for the slate.

Consider Ryan Zimmerman

Second base

Anthony Rendon - FD 3500 DK 3700 Victiv 5100
Opponent- Mia (Conley) L Park- @Was
A decent amount of Nats hitting the picks today. But that's because they are under priced across the board and facing a below average arm. Rendon's bounced back nicely in the short term, finally coming up with some much-needed power and making us not feel like total dunces for sticking with him through some of the down times. He's very affordable on DraftKings and makes a great play over there considering the multi-position eligibility. Not quite the deal on FanDuel though I still like him in cash games over there.

Brian Dozier - FD 3200 DK 4300 Victiv 5400
Opponent- Hou (Kazmir) L Park- @Min
Sort of the opposite pricing scheme for Dozier as he's the slightly better deal on FanDuel. He has a much tougher matchup than Rendon in facing Scott Kazmir, but this is Dozier's better side of the split and the Twins are fine enough against lefties on the whole. Dozier has an OPS over .800 against lefties and a mid .350's wOBA over the last couple of seasons. Again, I don't love the matchup, but the price is advantageous.

Strongly consider Kolten Wong on the cheap

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki - FD 3800 DK 4300 Victiv 5400
Opponent- Tor (Boyd) L Park- @Tor
Darn near automatic for me today as long as I can do just enough to save elsewhere. Tulo's true gift is embarrassing lefty pitching and over the last couple of seasons there are few who've done it better. Granted, he has Coors to thanks for some of this, but it doesn't go all the way to explain the .468 wOBA And 189 wRC+. Dude manhandles this split and he's in a great spot today against Matt Boyd who's sporting a 5 xFIP and low K rate. The Rogers Centre plays up power to all sides and Tulo, from the leadoff slot could be part of a gauntlet of righties that'll test Boyd's resolve. The price has come down just enough on Tulo. Big time buying possibility here.

Ian Desmond - FD 3300 DK 3800 Victiv 5100
Opponent- Mia (Conley) L Park- @Was
If you want to save just a few bucks (though admittedly, I'll look to do this savings elsewhere) Desmond has some upside against the lefty Conley. I'm not going to over sell Ian here, it's mostly about Tulowitzki for me on this slate. But Desmond is a fine enough tournament play because of the power and whiffs of speed in his profile.

Third base

Todd Frazier - FD 2900 DK 4700 Victiv 5300
Opponent- Mil (Jungmann) R Park- @Mil
More a FanDuel play than anywhere else, where the price has stayed very much in the lower tier for Frazier. He's big time struggled since the All-Star Break with an OPS in the mid .600's while striking out a bit more. Some of the OPS struggles are related to BABIP issues as it's down from his season average. He's slumping. And these are times I'll continue to buy on upside, especially when I'm trying to fit a stud pitcher. Taylor Jungmann's a fine enough pitcher with a nice K rate, but also an elevated walk rate. I'm buying Frazier on FD mostly on price.

Matt Carpenter - FD 3400 DK 3800 Victiv 5000
Opponent- Cin (Leake) R Park- @SF
On the other side of things, Carpenter is a great play on DraftKings where I like playing the natural pricing hedge between he and Frazier. Love Carpenter for cash games over there against a low K guy in Mike Leake. Carpenter walks 14% of the time with a .352 wOBA over the last couple of seasons against righties. The ballpark doesn't do him any favors but the contact expectation should be there in this matchup.

Outfield

Jayson Werth - FD 2800 DK 3400 Victiv 4700
Opponent- Mia (Conley) L Park- @Was
Again, because of the pitching situation today, we are going to need to find as many cheap upside plays as possible. That's Werth for ya. He's hitting leadoff for the Nats and is much better against lefties for his career. Over the last couple of seasons he has a mid .800's OPS with a .365 wOBA in that split. He walks more than 13% of the time (perfect for the top of the order!) and the price is down in some part because the BABIP is killing him. I'll have him as a heavy play on all sites today.

Carlos Gomez - FD 3000 DK 4100 Victiv 5200
Opponent- Min (Gibson) R Park- @Min
Another guy coming cheap thanks to some horrendous second half luck. Gomez's BABIP is about eighty points lower since the All-Star Break with the LD% down some. But the walks are up. He's a reverse splits guy over the last couple of seasons so no issues with him getting righty on righty'd against Gibson. Tough ballpark, but great price against a no-K arm.

Brett Gardner - FD 3000 DK 4600 Victiv 4700
Opponent- Atl (Perez) R Park- @Atl
A little steep on DraftKings, but right in the sweet spot on FanDuel. Gardner's price has come down some, though it's tough to figure out why. The short term's been productive for him and he's still a moderate power/ speed threat. Williams Perez walks more batters than he strikes out and is well below average all around. Some Yankees' stacks are in order for sure against this guy.

If you want to spend up some, Nelson Cruz and the other righty Mariners' outfielders against John Danks could do damage. But it's tough to fit them and the big arms.

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