Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 8/18/15

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Pitchers

Francisco Liriano - FD 9700 DK 10300 Victiv
Opponent- Ari (Anderson) R Park- @Pit
I think this is the first time all year that Kershaw has pitched where we haven't recommended him as the top play. But man, that price today is just too much. He needs to be about perfect to be safer value and I think you can fade him (though it doesn't feel amazing). The same is somewhat the case for deGrom. So we are left with some mid tier guys who are coming somewhat at discounts. Liriano is one of those guys. He walked a tight rope last game and was shaky the game before, leading to a price drop. The peripherals this season are tight though with a 9.91 K/9 rate and 2.94 xFIP. The ballpark helps him hear with Pittsburgh depressing power. He faces a good D-Backs team who do strike out 21% of the time against lefties. Liriano isn't the safest guy in the world, but this is a price play.

Anibal Sanchez - FD 8300 DK 7300 Victiv
Opponent- Chc (Hammel) R Park- @ChC
Another guy who doesn't strike me as safe, but has some K upside in this matchup. The Cubs go down on strikes more than 24% of the time against righties this season and rank in the bottom half of the league in team wOBA in that platoon. Sanchez has been merely average though his 3:1 K:BB ratio comes out fine enough. He's another arm that stands to well exceed his price point because of the peripherals and matchup. He also helps stack some bats in hitter's parks against weaker arms. Which may be the way to go today.

James Shields - FD 8700 DK 8600 Victiv
Opponent- Atl (Wisler) R Park- @Sd
The home runs have just killed him this season. They're the biggest component in his "struggles" as he's given up a fair amount of power in Petco. Because his other numbers are pretty tight. He's striking out close to ten batters per nine and has an xFIP in the mid 3's. These aren't ace numbers, but he isn't priced like one either. The Braves are a bottom third team against righties and don't have much power at all. Shields fits the bill with the other guys above. The price points allow for offensive flexibility. I like working a variety of lineups with the three and picking up more value in the margins of pitching than normal.

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Catchers

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 2700 DK 3500 Victiv 4800
Opponent- Mia (Conley) L Park- @Mil
Going broken record over here, but the price is simply too good to pass up here. Our system has him as the overwhelming points per dollar play today. Hitting second in the order, and that placement doesn't appear to be going anywhere. Outside of Schwarber, no other catcher hits this high in the order and the plate expectation piece alone is almost enough to justify him at these prices. He's been an average hitter over the last couple of years against lefties even with some BABIP issues. I know it's tough to stay with guys like this sometimes, but it makes sense.

Yan Gomes - FD 2800 DK 3600 Victiv 5100
Opponent- Bos (Rodriguez) L Park- @Bos
Gomes is right there with Lucroy though he doesn't hit as high in the order. Gomes hit third the on Sunday, but was returned to the sixth slot last night. Regardless, he makes a value play against Eduardo Rodgiguez. Gomes has been well above average against lefties over the last couple of seasons with a 126 wRC+ and that includes a putrid stretch this season after he came off the DL. Rodriguez has put up slightly below average pitching numbers and isn't a guy we need to avoid. Gomes is behind Lucroy for me, but still a nice price on FD and DK.

First base

There are some interesting mid tier first basement going today.

Carlos Santana - FD 3000 DK 4200 Victiv 5300
Opponent- Bos (Rodriguez) L Park- @Bos
I'm not ranking these guys in any particular order, so keep that in mind. Santana's been fine enough against lefties over the last couple of seasons with his big value add the ability to take walks. He's snagging those BB's at a 15% clip which is right in line with the K%. That's good news against an arm like Rodriguez who tends toward the wild side. Santana is coming a bit cheaper than the guys below which makes him eke out the point per dollar piece.

Mark Teixeira - FD 3400 DK 4700 Victiv 5200
Opponent- Min (Pelfrey) R Park- @NYY
I like Big Tex more against lefties, but I like almost every lefty hitter in Yankee Stadium so that makes up for the platoon difference. Now this isn't to say Teixeira is garbage against righties. He's put up plenty of power in that split and the short porch in right comes calling every game. Mike Pelfrey strikes no one out and carries a mid 4's xFIP into this game. He induces a ton of ground balls, but is still a dog in this contest.

Albert Pujols - FD 3600 DK 4200 Victiv 5300
Opponent- CWS (Danks) L Park- @ana
Been below average against lefties over the last couple of seasons which is a little alarming. Dude's put on a power display though this season and John Danks has a long and rich history of getting shelled. I'm playing Pujols coming at a slight discount in this one considering the power upside.

Second base

Chase Utley - FD 2500 DK 3100 Victiv 4300
Opponent- Tor (Dickey) R Park- @Phi
Price refuses to really move for a guy hitting near the top of the order every night who's been crushing since the All-Star break. Utley's early season run bad is behind him and he's back to being a full contact hitter who is ridiculously under priced. Even against R.A. Dickey I'm continuing to buy Utley's rock bottom prices as he hits in the leadoff slot. It's such an advantage.

Anthony Rendon - FD 3400 DK 4000 Victiv 5400
Opponent- Col (Hale) R Park- @Col
There wasn't a big price correction on the Nationals heading into Coors which is probably more an indictment of them as a team right now than the industry "figuring something out." Rendon is coming in that middle pricing tier. He's been fine enough against righty arms over the last couple of years with a 120 wRC+ so I don't mind the matchup against David Hale. Hale doesn't have terrible peripherals but has been unlucky enough to have to pitch half his games in Coors. I'm actually not on a ton of Nats today, but Rendon is one guy I'm keeping an eye on.

Strongly consider Robinson Cano

Shortstop

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2500 DK 3500 Victiv 4400
Opponent- Cin (Leake) R Park- @Stl
Price is beginning to completely bottom out. Because shortstop is such a fickle offensive position outside of the big boys like Correa and Tulo I'm always interested in honing in on guys like Peralta who aren't total donkeys with the bat and have been running a little bad of late. He's had a tough go since the All-Star Break for sure which has caused the price dip, but there's nothing in his batted ball profile that's particularly alarming. He's an above average hitter against righties and Mike Leake is a low-K pitcher. Peralta is a favorite to make contact in this one and is still hitting around the middle of the order.

Jean Segura - FD 2200 DK 3500 Victiv 4300
Opponent- Mia (Conley) L Park- @Mil
Brewers seem committed to hitting him in the leadoff slot against lefties mostly because the Brewers stink. But that's good for us. Segura (like Alcides Escobar) is a dude who can't really hit, but gets a big old boost just from the manager accidentally thinking he should hit leadoff. There's no statistical piece I want to quote that will help Segura's case here except he's a min-priced shortstop hitting leadoff and the rest of the position is so bad that those two factors are just about good enough.

Third base

Kyle Seager - FD 3500 DK 4300 Victiv 5200
Opponent- Tex (Gonzalez) R Park- @Tex
Almost a shame I've gone this long before really recommending a Mariner today. I feel bad about that, and I'm sorry. But they are facing a batting practice arm who happens to earn a major league salary in Chi-Chi Rodriguez. Chi-Chi walks more batters than he strikes out (not an easy feat at this level to keep getting run out to the mound) and sports a mid 5's xFIP. This has all the makings of a power surge for the Mariners though as a team they are better against lefties. Not Seager though who hits righty pitching on the regular with an .800 OPS and 128 wRC+ over the last couple of seasons. The ballpark's a huge boon as well, playing as one of the best power parks in baseball.

Strongly consider Mike Moustakas as a punt play and Todd Frazier coming cheap.

Outfield

Mike Trout - FD 4700 DK 5600 Victiv 5800
Opponent- CWS (Danks) L Park- @ana
Though Trout is actually a better hitter against righties for his career, it's not like we avoid MVP candidates just because the split is in a slight reverse. For all intents and purposes though Trout is an equal opportunity masher and is merely amazing against lefties. He's facing John Danks who we always love picking on. The Angels have struggled on offense of late (Danks shut them down recently), but we don't play streaks and Trout makes a great play considering you might not be putting a ton of money in on pitchers.

Ryan Braun - FD 4100 DK 4800 Victiv 5500
Opponent- Mia (Conley) L Park- @Mil
Khris Davis - FD 3000 DK 3900 Victiv 4600
Opponent- Mia (Conley) L Park- @Mil
Ooh, so much going for this pair today. Both Braun and Davis are above average hitters against lefties over their careers. Braun has an .860 OPS in that platoon over the last couple of seasons even with a slightly lower BABIP. Davis has been crushed in the luck department in this platoon over the short term so the numbers look worse than his actually ability in the split. Miller Park is a well above average park for righty power and Adam Conley is a weak lefty arm. With the pitching situation looking to trend a bit cheaper, fitting their salaries shouldn't be an issue.

Yasiel Puig - FD 2800 DK 3400 Victiv 5100
Opponent- Oak (Doubront) L Park- @Oak
Silly prices on Puig who's put up a .121 wRC+ and .351 wOBA over the last couple of seasons against lefties. He takes a ton of walks in this split and today faces Felix Doubront, a historically wild pitcher who replaced the wildness by significantly reducing his K rate. It all comes out in the wash as he's merely an average pitcher.

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