Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo 8/17/15

Happy Monday, y'all!

If you're new to this column, I'm going to give you a few plays at each position that you can consider in your daily fantasy baseball contests. Even though it's a short slate, I still won't be able to hit every acceptable play for the day.

If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo.

 

Pitchers

Gerrit Cole - FD 10200 DK 11200 Victiv
Opponent- Ari (Hellickson) R Park- @Pit
Alright, on a short slate, you're going to need to try and find some safety at the pitcher position in your double-ups and 50/50s. On Monday, that's going to mean grabbing the Pirates' ace at home against the Diamondbacks. Cole's a strike-out per inning guy with the 13th best xFIP in the major leagues, and he should have a good match-up with the perennially below league average Jeremy Hellickson. Today he'll be facing the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are one of those blessing/curse teams. The D-Backs have struck out at the 9th highest rate against opposing righties this season, but they've also put together the 10th highest wOBA. Worth noting, however, is that they'll be away from their friendly home hitter's environment and in the less friendly PNC Park. I'll take my chances with Cole on a day really lacking a pristine ace match-up.

Andrew Heaney - FD 7100 DK 8600 Victiv
Opponent- CWS (Rodon) L Park- @ana
Alright, this one clearly lands strictly in big tournament punt territory, but if you want a cheap guy who could flash some upside, I'd take a look at Heaney. Heaney himself isn't a whole lot to look at. His sub 7 K/9 doesn't scream "high upside" or anything, so I'll need to explain a bit. When we're thinking about upside at the pitcher spot in daily fantasy baseball, we're thinking strictly in terms of points per dollar. If Heaney were to go 7 innings of shut out ball with 4 Ks and get a W, he'd score 15 points. This would be a great result on a $7,100 FanDuel salary. Not only is he cheap, he's also facing a team that really can't hit. The White Sox are dead last in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching (an awful .276), and have struck out at the 11th highest rate. Like I said, a guy who gives up this much contact can't be said to be safe, but for big tourneys? Worth a shot.

Also considered: Sonny Gray, but not very much, to be honest. Baltimore strikes out a lot, but they can really hit as well, and this isn't a great place to pitch. Gray's ERA is inflated by almost a run and a half due to a low BABIP and high LOB% as well. But if you want to bob when people inevitably weave with Cole, he's an interesting play.

 

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Catchers

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 2200 DK 3300 Victiv 4800
Opponent- Mia (Nicolino) L Park- @Mil
Our system thinks I'm a donkey's donkey for not playing Lucroy more frequently, but today's a day where I'm willing to trust it. Lucroy is still just 29 years old, and he's got an .844 career OPS against left handed pitching of all stripes. He hasn't done that this season, obviously, and that's why we've been slow to trust him. But today he'll face Justin Nicolino. The poor guy had a sub 5 K/9 in 2 levels in the minors the last two years before the Marlins saw fit to send him to the slaughter, and has struck out just 4 batters in 16 major league innings. Today's a day to play Lucroy if you want to escape a shallow position cheaply.

Brian McCann - FD 3300 DK 4600 Victiv 4900
Opponent- Min (Gibson) R Park- @NYY
A little safety/upside combo play. McCann leads the majors in home runs by a catcher with 20, and has been .070 OPS points better against right handed pitching during his career. He'll be hitting in lefty-friendly Yankee Stadium against the basically league average Kyle Gibson. Gibson gives up a lot of contact, which won't help him exploit McCann's swing and miss tendencies, making this a better spot than usual to deploy Gibson.

Stephen Vogt - FD 2600 DK 3600 Victiv 4300
Opponent- Bal (Tillman) R Park- @Bal
The price difference between Vogt in McCann is nothing more than a case of "what have you done for me lately?" Vogt is 3rd in the majors at catcher with 16 homers, and actually has a higher wOBA than McCann this year! He's also facing an even worse pitcher in another good hitter's park - Chris Tillman's 4.49 xFIP is the worst of his bad career since 2011. The A's should have a great chance to put big numbers up tonight, and Vogt could be right in the center of it all.

 

First base

Mark Teixeira - FD 3500 DK 4800 Victiv 5200
Opponent- Min (Gibson) R Park- @NYY
I liked Teixeira on Sunday, and as of this writing (through 5 innings in the Yankees' game) he's let me down. Still, he's got 25 home runs and a .980 OPS against right handed pitching in 304 plate appearances this season. While some of that's BABIP fueled, the fact remains - he's smashing the ball. His one weakness, if you want to call it that, has been striking out. The good news about facing Kyle Gibson is, he's well below league average in terms of striking out opposing batters. It's always tough to feel like Teixeira is a big safety play, but against a pitch-to-contact guy like Gibson, it sure looks that way.

Albert Pujols - FD 3700 DK 4100 Victiv 5400
Opponent- CWS (Rodon) L Park- @ana
We gave you the Angels stack against Carlos Rodon in his last start, and Rodon dominated the Angels for his best start of the year. Baseball(!). If he qualified, though, Rodon's 5.01 BB/9 would be the very worst in the major leagues. While a pitcher of his pedigree is going to have some explosive starts, he has sprinkled in more than his fair share of lousy ones as well. Pujols has really stunk against left handed pitching this year, but his .198 BABIP is one of the unluckiest in the league considering how much hard contact he makes. I'm rolling it back here and playing Pujols for upside once again.

Pedro Alvarez - FD 2700 DK 3600 Victiv 4400
Opponent- Ari (Hellickson) R Park- @Pit
A huge upside, relatively cheap option. With 3 homers in the last week, Alvarez's power is clearly locked in, and it's worth noting that 17 of his 18 home runs have come against right handed pitching this season. Hellickson has always struggled with giving up the long ball, and his 1.31 HR/9 figure this year reflects that not much has changed. Alvarez is never going to be a "safe" play, but his huge upside here probably means he's playable anywhere.

 

Second base

Johnny Giavotella - FD 2500 DK 3100 Victiv 3600
Opponent- CWS (Rodon) L Park- @ana
Giavotella is one of the least exciting players in baseball, but while the Angels are insisting on batting him lead-off, he's going to be a nice value play while he hits in front of the stars that hit behind him. He's scored 2.25 FanDuel points or more in 6 of his last 9 contests, and the number of plate appearances he'll get means he'll have a nice high floor in most given games. On this short slate, he's the best value play by far for my money.

Brian Dozier - FD 3600 DK 4400 Victiv 5200
Opponent- NYY (Sabathia) L Park- @NYY
Dozier stands in a tier by himself at the 2nd base position, at least in terms of upside. His 25 homers this season are almost twice as many as the next highest guy (Forsythe with 13), and he's also 9th at 2B with 9 steals. He happens to be .070 OPS points better against left handed pitching, as an extra little cherry on top. Today he'll face what's left of CC Sabathia, a once proud pitcher who hasn't had above league average results since 2012. Throw in a great hitter's park, and you have a huge upside play if you want it.

Neil Walker - FD 2900 DK 4000 Victiv 4700
Opponent- Ari (Hellickson) R Park- @Pit
Walker is on a little bit of a heater this season, and it's one that our projection system was able to sniff out. You see, Walker is a sneaky platoon guy. He's a switch hitter, but he's been a huge .140 OPS points better against right handed pitching during his career - making him unplayable against lefties, but very interesting against righties. He doesn't cut a classic upside profile, but 12 homers and 3 steals in 370 PA against righties is nothing to sneeze at, and you can often get a good amount of separation (as in, other people don't play him) by grabbing Walker. If you want to spend $400 more than Giovatella for way more upside, have a look.

 

Shortstop

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2600 DK 3800 Victiv 4500
Opponent- SF (Heston) R Park- @Stl
It was just a routine day off for Peralta on Sunday, which was annoying, because he's been the best play at shortstop on a daily basis for a while. The reasons are pretty straightforward - Peralta's prices are drifting down toward the league minimum, which is just bizarre, considering how shallow shortstop is. He's 2nd in the majors in home rnus by a shortstop, and 3rd in wOBA. He can hit right handed and left handed pitching, and hits high in the lineup. Today he'll face Chris Heston, whose minor league track record doesn't necessarily support his year-to-date major league success. But really, this is a price thing. Great value, nice upside, I'll take it.

Jean Segura - FD 2200 DK 3500 Victiv 4300
Opponent- Mia (Nicolino) L Park- @Mil
Ugh, shortstop is just such a terrible position on a day to day basis. I'm presenting Segura with modest embarrassment, here, because it's hard to imagine playing him anywhere. What you're banking on in this game that Justin Nicolino doesn't get lucky and actually get a few outs before being run from the game. This one basically comes down to a projected increase in plate appearances (and having higher quality PAs) for all of the Brewers today. And hey, a shortstop with 18 steals and 4 homers does pass for an upside play on the minimum prices today.

Also considered: Mixing and matching some other cheap guys. I won't bother with the expensive guys today - the matchups don't warrant it.
 

Third base

Evan Longoria - FD 3100 DK 3800 Victiv 5200
Opponent- Hou (Kazmir) L Park- @Hou
Longoria never developed into the super-duper-star it looked like he'd be, but he has developed into something close against left handed pitching. We've given you Longo against lefties from the time his OPS was .890 against them this season, and it's ballooned to .945 after he's put together game after game of excellent performances against them. Today he'll face Scott Kazmir, who's an empty-ERA ace whose peripherals don't match-up with his results this season. Kazmir's 3.77 xFIP is the worst he's had in 5 years, and paints a picture of a guy who we should expect slightly better than league average performance from, but hardly ace-level stuff. Longoria is a great upside grab here in a game where others will likely be spooked to play him.

Trevor Plouffe - FD 2800 DK 3800 Victiv 4400
Opponent- NYY (Sabathia) L Park- @NYY
Brian Dozier's third base cousin. Plouffe isn't the player Dozier is, but he does have a career .815 OPS against left handed pitching (about .120 OPS point better than his number against righties), and his .199 ISO means he can definitely hit a homer or two in friendly parks like Yankee Stadium. I like him quite a bit, especially stacked with Dozier.

The monster upside elephant in the room: Miguel Sano. How long can he put up a .900+ OPS with a 34% K rate? I dunno, but you can bet some people will be dreaming on his true 80 power in a righty/lefty spot with CC.
 

Outfield

A quick note: As on most days, there are a number of cheap outfielders you can consider if you want to mix and match around more expensive plays. If you want, you can check all of those out by getting a free three day trial of our projection system. Here are the more expensive plays.
Mike Trout - FD 4900 DK 5000 Victiv 5900
Opponent- CWS (Rodon) L Park- @ana
I won't waste your time with all the deets, here, but Trout's the world's best player, and while Rodon has shown signs, he's truly not there quite yet. If you're spending big on this short slate, I'll take Trout, and then the field, by a comfortable margin.

Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 2900 DK 4300 Victiv 5100
Opponent- Min (Gibson) R Park- @NYY
Brett Gardner - FD 3100 DK 4200 Victiv 5000
Opponent- Min (Gibson) R Park- @NYY
I gave you the Yankee speedsters in a stack yesterday, and as of this writing, Ellsbury is off to a monster start (while Gardner is a no-show). Still, the analysis remains. Here's what I wrote last night:

Ellsbury has put fantasy players to sleep all season, his once electric wheels traded in for whatever this current version of him seems to be. Still, he's had stretches like this before - in almost as many plate appearances in 2012 he also had 14 steals, before going off for 52 in the following season. And really, even this current production is enough to happily pay this price. He'd be on pace for a 10/28 season while leading off on a great lineup, hitting in a nice hitter's park against a league average righty. All in all, a fine play anywhere. As for Gardner, he's a very similar player to Ellsbury, minus a little speed, plus a little power. A great play as well, and a fine 1-2 stack.

Ryan Braun - FD 3900 DK 4600 Victiv 5500
Opponent- Mia (Nicolino) L Park- @Mil
Another retread from last night's picks, and another guy who is off to a blistering start on Sunday. As of this writing, he's got a homer and 5 RBI through 5 innings against Aaron Harang. The crazy thing? While Harang has the league's 3rd worst xFIP, he's probably a whole tier better than Justin Nicolino. Braun can boost your squad with his legs or his bat at this stage in his career, and while he's fairly expensive, I like him as basically a poor man's Trout with a much better match-up. I'd be happy to play him in any format.

Starling Marte - FD 2900 DK 4400 Victiv 5000
Opponent- Ari (Hellickson) R Park- @Pit
There's no doubt about it - Marte is significantly better against left handed pitching - so it feels weird taking him against a right handed pitcher. But this is just a case where the upside no longer matches the price. Marte's 13 homers and 22 steals are downright elite for any position, and pricing him below $3,000 on FanDuel is going too far. In a plus match-up against Hellickson, he represents a nice cheap way to get upside while also paying up at some other positions.

 

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