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    Nascar picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    08/13/2015
    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy Nascar Picks
    Pure Michigan 400


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    Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Pure Michigan 400? Chris is selling a cheatsheet and lineups for DraftKings & FantasyFeud for $5. Just scroll to the bottom of the picks. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

     

    Pure Michigan 400

    Michigan International Speedway - Brooklyn, MI
    Track Type/Length - 2.0 Mile D-Shaped Oval

    Joey Logano snuck away with the win at Watkins Glen this past weekend after Kevin Harvick ran out of fuel on the final lap. Joey swept the weekend winning both the Xfinity and Sprint Cup series races. Both wins were his first on a road course. Track position didn't end being the deciding factor on Sunday as 7 of the top 10 finishers started outside the top 10 at the beginning of the race. Kyle Busch kept his strong going and finished 2nd at Watkins Glen. He received enough points to jump into 30th in points and safe for now. There are four races remaining until the Chase for the Sprint Cup playoffs begin and all drivers not locked in will have to be careful. NASCAR visits Michigan(new rules package), Bristol(Short Track Craziness), Darlington(new rules package), and Richmond(Fast Short Track). It will be an exciting month leading up to the Chase to see who makes it in and who comes up short. On to Michigan!

    This week NASCAR heads back to Brooklyn, Michigan for the second race here in 2015. Kurt Busch won the Quicken Loans 400 here back in June in a race that was stopped short due to rain. Kyle Larson and the #42 team had taken a risk in staying out as the leader hoping the rain would fall. He was forced to pit just 3 laps before the race ended due to the rain. It was a great gamble that just missed.

    This week Michigan International Speedway hosts the Pure Michigan 400. This race will be different than the June race in a NASCAR and a fantasy aspect. First of all NASCAR will be using a new rules package for this track. It is the same package that was ran at Indianapolis and created lower downforce and higher drag which in turn produced more drafting and passing. From a fantasy perspective, DraftKings has added a 6th driver to lineup building which lowered salaries. You won't be able to compare salaries but you will be able to compare salary rankings among the drivers. There is definitely movers in the group, most notably Dale Earnhardt Jr. went from being 4th in DK salary in the first race to 9th in DK salary this week. There is also plenty of mid-lower tier drivers who have had good track records here so a Stars & Scrubs approach will be taken in GPP formats this week. On to the picks!

    Upper Tier Targets

    Kyle Busch
    DraftKings - $10,100
    Fantasy Feud - $250,000
    Vegas Odds - 7.5/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 30th
    Practice #1 - 7th
    Practice #2 - 4th
    Practice #3 - 9th

    Qualified - 6th
    I will take the $500 discount for Harvick this week and ride with the hotter driver. Kyle finished 2nd last week and made it inside the top 30 in points but don't, for one minute, think he will let up now. He won the race at Indianapolis which used this same aero package. The package should be better utilized here at Michigan as the track is wider with multiple lines to run. In his last five races Kyle has 3 wins, a second and a 21st(near miss after running out of fuel). I don't think he will slow down until the checkered flag drops at Homestead and there isn't much that can stop him at this point. Ride the momentum!

    Joey Logano
    DraftKings - $9,600
    Fantasy Feud - $230,000
    Vegas Odds - 9/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 2nd
    Practice #1 - 11th
    Practice #2 - 16th
    Practice #3 - 2nd

    Qualified - 10th
    He picked up the sweep at Watkins Glen last weekend and has been on quite a tear lately. In his previous five races Joey has a win, two runner ups, a 4th place finish and a 20th place finish. His track history here in the past five races has been the best in NASCAR. He has one win, three top 5's and 5 top 10 finishes and a 5.4 average finish. Combine this with a price tag on DK under $10K and you have one of the top picks of the week.

    Brad Keselowski
    DraftKings - $9,500
    Fantasy Feud - $240,000
    Vegas Odds - 10/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 5th
    Practice #1 - 22nd
    Practice #2 - 13th
    Practice #3 - 11th

    Qualified - 14th
    Like his teammate Logano, Keselowski comes in under $10K as well and presents some nice value. In his previous five races here at Michigan he has one top 5 and three top 10 finishes and a 8.2 average finish which is 5th among drivers in that time. His current form is spot on as well not finishing outside the top 10 in either of his previous five races. Look for an aggressive driver in Keselowski to push the new package and get every pass possible out of it.

    Middle Tier Targets

    Carl Edwards
    DraftKings - $9,000
    Fantasy Feud - $195,000
    Vegas Odds - 16/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 15th
    Practice #1 - 1st
    Practice #2 - 10th
    Practice #3 - 3rd

    Qualified - 3rd
    Another one of the Joe Gibbs Racing team who is on a heater lately. In his previous five races he hasn't finished worse than 13th and the other four races were all top 10 finishes. He only has two top 10 finishes here in his previous five races but a 15.2 average finish. The theme of this entire article so far has been drivers with good current form so I throw Carl in the mix and hope he keeps it going.

    Paul Menard
    DraftKings - $7,800
    Fantasy Feud - $150,000
    Vegas Odds - 67/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 11th
    Practice #1 - 25th
    Practice #2 - 24th
    Practice #3 - 24th

    Qualified - 24th
    With a DraftKings salary of $7,800 this week he is one of the top value plays. He has four top 15 finishes in his previous five races and comes back to Michigan with an excellent track record. In his last five races here he has three top 5's and four top 10 finishes with a 6.8 average finish which is 2nd among all drivers. Look for another strong finish this week from #27 team.

    Clint Bowyer
    DraftKings - $7,400
    Fantasy Feud - $125,000
    Vegas Odds - 101/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 14th
    Practice #1 - 27th
    Practice #2 - 18th
    Practice #3 - 13th

    Qualified - 12th
    A driver who is seated right near the bubble to make the Chase for the Sprint Cup playoffs. He will be looking to stay inside that top 16 this week and will be doing so at a track where he has had success. In his previous five races at Michigan he has one top 5 and five top 10 finishes with a 7.6 average finish. He is also hot lately with three straight race finishes inside the top 8. At this price it is tough not to roster him but might be smart to use only in cash games as he should be highly owned.

    Low End Target

    Greg Biffle
    DraftKings - $7,100
    Fantasy Feud - $115,000
    Vegas Odds - 76/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 18th
    Practice #1 - 23rd
    Practice #2 - 25th
    Practice #3 - 22nd

    Qualified - 20th
    All the way down at $7,100 this week, Biffle is my favorite value play. In his previous five races he has a top 5 and three top 20 finishes. He has had success at Michigan as well with a win, one top 5 and three top 10 finishes in his previous five races here. He doesn't have a win in 2015 and is sitting in the 18th position in the standings so look for the #16 team to give it all they got here to get a win or at least a top 10 finish.

    Post Practice & Qualifying Final Thoughts
    Matt Kenseth will be starting at the front tomorrow for the Pure Michigan 400 followed by teammates Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards. Kyle Busch, the 4th member of the Joe Gibbs Racing team, will start from the rear of the pack as he spun out and tore his car up in the grass during practice. The JGR team has been hot lately and it looks like that streak will continue as all were top 10 in practices as well.

    A couple other guys who have some value after qualifying and practice are Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson. Truex will start in the 22nd position Sunday. He was 12th in 2nd practice and 1st in final practice. He should be able to work his way forward on this fast track and get inside the top 10. Larson will start even further back in the 34th position tomorrow. He was 3rd in Practice #2 and 4th in final practice showing he has a consistently fast car so look for the #42 to move up through the field quickly.

    ***Correction on Kyle Busch. As he tore up his car after qualifying his qualifying position is used as place differential baseline not rear of the field.***

    Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Pure Michigan 400? Chris is selling a cheatsheet and lineups for DraftKings and FantasyFeud for $5. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership. Head over to our PayPal payment page, if that's more your bag.

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    Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.

     

    image sources

    • 2048px-NASCAR_practice: By U.S. Air Force photo by Larry McTighe [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

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