The trade deadline has passed, and a few huge names have switched teams. In this article, we'll break down what it means for deploying them on FanDuel, Draftkings, Victiv, and Yahoo going forward for the rest of the season.
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Critics of Troy Tulowitzki will be quick to point out that his career OPS is nearly .140 points worse on the road, and that his underlying production has taken some notable and troubling dives this season. He's walking less, striking out more, and his isolated power numbers are way down as well. The hypothetical critics I'm referencing here are right. So does moving to Toronto crush Tulo's already declining value?
In short, no. Let's break it down.
Home Park
Moving from Coors to the Rogers Centre is a downgrade, there's no doubt about it. Thankfully, though, the Rogers Centre was tied for the 6th best run scoring environment in baseball in 2014, per FanGraphs. Interestingly, Tulo sees another big upgrade in moving away from Coors - his most frequent away parks. The NL West is littered with 3 awful hitters' destinations (SF, SD, LAD) and one good park (Arizona). The AL East has one terrible park to hit in (TB) and then three great ones. This is still a downgrade, to be sure, but for potential Tulo destinations, it could have been a lot worse.
Lineup position
Tulo has batted leadoff so far, and while this might hurt his RBI, the guys batting around him are more than capable of driving him in. In addition, the leadoff spot gets about .24 more plate appearances per game over the 3rd spot, and .36 plate appearances over the cleanup spot. All in all, I think this is a win.
Teammates
The Blue Jays are the only team in the league with a higher wOBA than the Rockies, so this has to be called a win. If you control for home and away games, the difference is dramatic - the Jays are .020 wOBA points better than the Rocks on the road.
Price
This is really where potential Tulo owners should get excited. At least early on, Tulo's price has dropped from ~$4,600 for home games in Coors to $3,500 for his home games in Toronto. There's no way he has an expectation to drop overall fantasy production by 24%, and this makes Tulo a great buying opportunity (especially against left handed pitching, which the Jays crush).
Overall
When one considers overall points per dollar production, I'm going to call this trade a win for potential Tulowitzki owners, and I recommend playing him in his home games, and will call him a must play against left handed pitching at home or on the road in Boston, NYY, or Baltimore for sure.
FILE - These are 2015, file photos showing Toronto Blue Jays' Jose Reyes, left, and Colorado Rockies' Troy Tulowitzki, right. Tulowitzki was sent to the Toronto Blue Jays for Jose Reyes and three pitching prospects late Monday night, July 27, 2015, in a stunning swap of star shortstops, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. The person spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity early Tuesday because the deal had not yet been announced. (AP Photo/File)
Reyes moves from Toronto to Colorado, and since I've already broken down a lot of the differences between these two parks and teams, this write-up will be just a little bit shorter. Let's cut the preamble and dive right in.
Home Park
I believe this will be a greater upgrade than many will think for Reyes. During his career, his ISO has been .050 points higher in Coors than it has elsewhere, and some bad BABIP luck has held him down from having a great triple-slash line there. What's more, much of Reyes' power comes from drives to the gap where he legs out the extra bases. In Coors, some of those doubles and triples will turn into wall-scraping home runs, giving Reyes a pretty nice boost in power. Did I just write 3 sentences to describe why Coors is the best hitters' park in baseball? I believe I did.
Lineup position
Reyes will continue to bat first, making this a neutral move.
Teammates
Tough to complain about the Rockies' lineup in general, but as I noted with Tulo, they kinda suck on the road. In general, his teammates in Colorado are bad enough that I will likely not consider playing him on the road at the current prices simply because there might not be enough opportunity for him. If, however, the Rocks let him run more to try and get things going on the road, this could wind up being a net benefit to his value long term. Definitely something worth keeping an eye on.
Price
As of this writing, the Rockies haven't played a home game with their new shortstop. I expect that Reyes will be priced very aggressively (and he might even be priced out of consideration in some cases), but this is a case where I'll need to see for sure before commenting. Our projection system will have a great points per dollar projection on him when he does play there, and I'm sure we'll discuss it in that days picks article.
Overall
It's too soon to tell. If Reyes were deployed the same way, I'd say this will generally be a downgrade for him (if he's priced up where Tulo was, for instance), but if he's given the green-light to run more, especially on the road, things could get interesting. For the moment, I'm going to call this one a wait and see until we have more information, but leaning toward it being bad for him.
Home Park
So, this one is a classic case where one has to consult the numbers before jumping to grand conclusions. General media perception seems to be that moving away from Cincinnati will be a relief on Cueto's ERA, conveniently ignoring that Kaufmann Stadium was an identical run scoring environment last year. So, what to many is the biggest boon to Cueto's value here is actually a wash. Does it get better from here? Let's see.
League
Well, moving from the NL to the AL just can't be a good thing. Facing 11% more real hitters instead of pitchers is actually sort of a huge deal. As for the specific teams he'll face most frequently, the Tigers, Indians, Twins, and White Sox who are 5th, 18th, 21st, and 22nd in terms of wOBA against right handed pitching. The Cardinals, Brewers, Pirates, and Cubs are 12th, 19th, 20th, and 25th against right handed pitching - so we're looking at tougher competition inside his division as well. This can only be seen as a negative.
Teammates
Hey now! Something in Cueto's favor! The Royals have the best record in the majors this season, and have one 16 more games than Cueto's former team. They're .020 wOBA points better on offense, and have a 98 wRC+ vs. the Reds' 84 wRC+. This should theoretically lead to more wins, and should be seen as a good thing overall.
Price
I haven't seen any games yet, but I don't see why the price would change much.
Overall
Well, it's a scattershot of effects. I think Cueto will be more likely to get wins, but if you take the Royals' overall win % and compare it with the Reds (this is not a great way to do it - just making a point), you're looking at an 8% higher likelihood for Cueto to get a win in a given game. This is worth about .32 fantasy points on FanDuel, per game. Weighed against tougher competition, a neutral park change, and a tougher league overall, and I'm going to say that this makes me like Cueto less on his new team until I see otherwise.
After throwing a no-hitter in his last start as a Philly, Hamels heads to the Rangers to help them with their playoff push. Better team, for sure. But how do the other factors weigh in?
Home Park
Another case of the public possibly not understanding how big a change this is. While Philly has a reputation of being a great place to hit, Citizen's Bank was a neutral run scoring environment in 2014. Globe Life in Arlington, however, was the second worst park for pitchers to pitch in, allowing 6% more runs than the average ball park. This is a step in the wrong direction.
League
The AL is a worse place to pitch, and his competition will be stiffer inside his division as well. The Astros, Angels, A's, Mariners, are 8th, 14th, 21st, and 22nd in terms of wOBA against left-handed pitching, whereas the Marlins, Nationals, Braves, and Mets are 4th, 19th, 28th, and 29th against left handed pitching. This is a step in the wrong direction.
Teammates
The Phillies are just awful, so this is a clear step in the right direction. The Phillies have scored the 2nd fewest runs in the majors, and the Rangers have scored the 8th most. It's tough to do worse than the Phillies, so I'm going to call this a clear win.
Price
As of now, I'm not aware of any price difference.
Overall
Overall, I've got to call this a loss - particularly because of Hamels' home park. When he's on the road I'll probably still take a look at him, but many of those games will be in the AL, making it likely a worse match-up overall. I don't believe this kills Hamels' playability, but I think he's gone from being a guy our projection system loves on a game to game basis to a guy that it will generally tell you deploy with caution.
Home Park
From a park perspective, this isn't a great move for Kazmir. The Oakland Coliseum seriously depressed power to righties and ranked in the bottom third of the league for power in this split in 2014. Kazmir heads from there to Minute Maid Park where righties can tee off. This hurts him going forward.
Teammates
The Astros were significantly better than the A's at the time of this trade and took another step forward with the acquisition of Carlos Gomez on Thursday. They are now looking pretty stacked (though righty heavy in the lineup) and the bats should help Kazmir's win expectation going forward.
Price
The price jumped after the trade and it'll likely take another tick up after he looked strong against the Angels Thursday, going 7 2/3 with no runs and 5 K's in a tough luck no decision.
Overall
A good move in the win department for Kazmir, but a bad one for park. He'll likely be a bit overpriced in his next matchup after making an upward move in the standings and turning out a good first game with the Astros.
Sweet baby Jesus, the Blue Jays are going for this thing. David Price! A Blue Jay! And a steep price to pay for him. But how does it impact his daily fantasy baseball value?
Home Park
Toronto is a tough place to pitch for sure, but many don't realize that Comerica was a better hitter's environment in 2014. This is a slight upgrade for him.
League/Division
There shouldn't be too big a difference for Price in moving from the AL Central to the AL East, but the teams he'll face in the East have scored slightly more runs this season.
Teammates
While their teams have roughly even records, the Blue Jays have scored 88 more runs than the Tigers this season, and are the highest scoring team in the majors by 48 runs. And this was without Troy Tulowitzki. By any and all accounts, this is a clear upgrade for Price as it pertains to his likelihood of getting a win on a day to day basis.
Price
Still remains to be seen.
Overall
All in all, this looks like a clearly better situation for Price. If his "price" (lol!) doesn't jump after the trade, I expect he'll be a great value. I do expect his salary cost to rise, though, likely making this a neutral move.
Home Park
Even with Minute Maid Park playing real well for righty bats, this is still a downgrade for Gomez. Miller Park is among the best places in baseball for righties to take one out and though Gomez isn't going to a pitcher's haven or anything, this will still take his power numbers down a tad.
Lineup position
It's still a little too early to tell, here, but I'm of the opinion that he'll see more plate appearances as an Astro than as a Brewer. It will be tantalizing for the 'Stros to put him and his game changing speed toward the top of the lineup. If they do, I believe his fantasy value will rise quite a bit. If he sticks in the middle of the order, this will obviously be a neutral move.
Teammates
The Astros have outscored the Brewers by 51 runs this season, and the greater frequency of not having a pitcher around to screw things up will be a slight boon for Gomez. The Astros are 7th in the majors in overall wOBA, the Brewers are 21st. No matter how you slice it, Gomez should have more counting stat opportunity in Houston.
Price
Too early to tell.
Overall
The Mets' loss is the Astros gain. Gomez enters a potent (if K-heavy) lineup in Houston, and it's hard to imagine this not being a net positive for his fantasy value. The potential fly in the ointment here is his price. We've seen a lot of guys rise in price after switching teams, and if the sites overcompensate on Gomez, he could be priced out. Still, I'll be watching eagerly to see what happens.
These are guys that weren't being played a ton, but who you might want to consider now that they've gotten a change of scenery.
Moss is moving from a pitcher's park (Cleveland) to a place that allowed 1% more scoring in 2014 (St. Louis). A slight upgrade here. The Cards and Indians have nearly identical team wOBA's. He should face worse pitching in the NL Central than the AL Central.
The big issue here is that Moss didn't start in his first game in St. Louis. It's unclear if he'll be the left handed side of a platoon, but this might be a benefit for him. He really can only hit right handed pitching, and should only be deployed in those cases anyway.
All in all, I'm not sure this is a very consequential trade.
It's a better home park to pitch in, and a better lineup behind them, but are either of these two guys you can consider on a day to day basis? I say yes - but I'll take Latos solidly over Wood.
He's often cheap enough to surround with expensive hitters, he's coming off three great starts, and the lineup surrounding him is unquestionably more competent (5th in the majors in wOBA as opposed to the Marlins' 25th).
I'd say this is a strong win for Latos and Wood, and I'll probably try to stick at least Latos in a big tournament in his first good match-up before his price begins to creep upward (if it doesn't start way higher in the first place).
As for Wood, I still don't think he's got quite enough at this point unless the K rate returns to last season's levels. And I'm not sure why it would (wood!). I'll pass.
Zobrist has been a guy our system has liked all season while he's been on the A's, and now he's moved to Kauffman Stadium to join the MLB best Royals. Big upgrade, right? Well... maybe. While the Royals have a wOBA .011 points higher than the A's, they've only outscored them by 3 runs. Of course, that's before they got Ben Zobrist. All in all, though, his teammates represent a modest upgrade at best.
As for his home park - this is a clear upgrade. The Coliseum depressed run scoring by 3% in 2014, whereas Kauffman stadium boosted run scoring by 1%. A good step in the right direction.
On the troubling side of things, though, the A's were batting Zobrist in the heart of their order, whereas the Royals bat him 6th in his first start. Now, this might change - Zobrist is a patient hitter that would represent an enormous upgrade in the leadoff spot over Alcides Escobar, or even Moustakas in the 2 hole. If he's going to bat sixth, though, I'm afraid most of his best talents might be wasted.
My finals conclusions? If he moves to the top of the order this is a nice upgrade, if he languishes at the back of the order, this is probably just a wash. Still, though, Zobrist remains very underrated for fantasy purposes on a nightly basis, at least as far as he can help you in double-ups and 50/50 contests.
In one of the last moves before the trade deadline came and went, Cespedes was shipped off to the Big Apple from a team that won't make the playoffs to a team that probably won't make the playoffs. The park move is actually a slight upgrade for Cespedes as Citi Field's played better for righty power over the last season or so. The downside for Cespedes is the Mets score far fewer runs than the Tigers (even without Miggy). As far as counting stats are concerned for Yoenis, this doesn't help him much at all.
I suspect he's hitting in the top three spots in the lineup, but he was in that range recently for the Tigers as well. So there isn't a clear cut plate expectation boost for the guy. All-in-all, this is a negative move for the guy going forward.
A sneaky trade that could do things is Dustin Ackley to the Yankees. Safeco was just the worst possible place for a guy with his skill set, and moving to a friendlier home park for him. There could be a confidence boost for a guy that has as much prospect pedigree as anyone - I"ll keep a close eye on him and pounce if it looks like the change is being friendly to him.
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