Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, Victiv, Yahoo, and DraftKings 7/25/15

A little double-slate action this Saturday! Double slates often mean a short slate with very few options, and a large slate with lots more. Saturday the 25th (and my wedding anniversary, thanks for asking) is one such day. For today's picks, I'm going to go ahead and give you one play for the early slate and a couple for the late slate. Will I be playing daily fantasy baseball on my wedding anniversary? You betcha. Hope you will be, too.

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Pitchers

Early Slate
Jake Arrieta - FD 10600 DK 11900 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- Phi (Hamels) L Park- @Chc
In the last two seasons, we're on 284 innings pitched at a 2.70 xFIP for Arrieta. His 2.67 number is good for 5th in the majors this season. Frankly, Arrieta is awesome, and one of the underrated pitchers of the last two seasons. Now you throw in the Philadelphia Phillies, the owners of the very worst wOBA against right handed pitching in the majors. While this match-up with Hamels is no sure thing, the Cubs should still be favored given that they have the 4th highest wOBA in the league against left handed pitching. I'm a buyer for 50/50s and double ups here, for sure.

Our system also thinks that Cole Hamels is a good play, if you want to take a shot on him. Even though the Cubs can hit, they also strike out a ton, making this a really interesting high upside tournament play.

Late Slate
Carlos Carrasco - FD 9300 DK 10300 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- CWS (Sale) L Park- @Cle
The late slate for pitchers starts to get pretty interesting. Cueto's in Coors, which scratches him off instantly. Harvey's got the Dodgers - the owners of the 2nd highest wOBA against right handed pitching this season. Sale is pitching against Carrasco's Indians - owners of the league's 2nd lowest K rate and 6th lowest wOBA against left handed pitching. And let's be clear - he's so good that you can probably still consider pitching him. But me? I like Carrasco. His 2.73 xFIP is just a breath behind the aforementioned Arrieta's, and his better K/9 (10.08 to Arrieta's 9.30) gives him arguably greater upside. The White Sox aren't as bad as the Phils, but they do own the league's 7th lowest wOBA against against righties. There's obviously a distinctly lowered chance of a win when you're facing a monster like Sale, but in terms of sheer points per dollar value, Carrasco is my best bet.

Ian Kennedy - FD 7500 DK 7300 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- Mia (Phelps) R Park- @Sd
This is your high upside punt play of the night slate. Kennedy's 3.92 xFIP paints the picture of a better pitcher than his ERA would suggest, and he's seen a mysterious 250% increase in homeruns per fly ball that I think will normalize and put him back in the "solid pitcher" category. On this day he'll face the Marlins of Miami in his lovely home park, an enviable match-up. Not only is Petco the league's best pitching environment, but the Marlins are the owners of the majors' 5th worst wOBA against right handed pitching. Throw in a poor opposing pitcher (David Phelps), and I could absolutely seeing him pay off in a big tournament with a top heavy payoff structure with some of the aces having tough matchups.

Also considered: Matt Harvey. Our system likes him, even if he doesn't pass my personal eyeball test against a hard hitting Dodgers team. Still, he should be favored against Zach Lee. And he's a monster, so there's that.
 

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Catchers

Early Slate
John Jaso - FD 2700 DK 3800 Victiv 3900 Yahoo
Opponent- Bal (Gonzalez) R Park- @TB
Captain boring is off to his best start ever, and he's blistering right handers for a 1k+ OPS and a .208 ISO. Will that continue? No. It won't. But the trends for Jaso have held consistent throughout his career - he's always been tough on righties (.800 career OPS) and a total wreck against lefties (.514(!!!) OPS). Our system has Gonzalez pegged as a solidly below league average pitcher, making this a nice high floor play for the early slate.

Late Slate
Salvador Perez - FD 2300 DK 3400 Victiv 4600 Yahoo 12
Opponent- Hou (Feldman) R Park- @KC
Perez is a mainstay in this column when he's facing left handed pitching, but he rarely gets the nod against righties. Well, Scott Feldman really is that bad. The depressing owner of a 5.35 K/9 in his last 240 major league innings, Feldman has some of the very worst stuff in the league. As for Perez, he's been much better against RHP this season than he had been earlier in his young career, and his .198 ISO against northpaws this season speaks to the potential upside he could bring. Against one of the league's lousiest pitchers, I don't mind grabbing him for near the minimum and making a go of it.

Evan Gattis - FD 3400 DK 3500 Victiv 4800 Yahoo 15
Opponent- KC (Duffy) L Park- @KC
Two catchers from the same game! Gattis is a case study on waiting for young players to establish their platoon splits and not overreacting early in their careers (as I personally am wont to do). After a 2014 campaign where he had a .970 OPS against left handers, Gattis has just a .650 OPS against them this season. The truth likely lies somewhere inbetween. I'm giving you him here because of Danny Duffy. The once promising left hander now has 376 innings in the major leagues of 4.53 xFIP pitching under his belt. That's solidly below average, and while there's still time left in his career, I won't count on the big shift happening today. He's also been solidly .140 OPS points worse against right handed hitting, making this a great moment for Gattis to flex his huge upside swing. For safety I'll take Perez, but for upside? Give me Gattis.

First base

Early Slate
David Ortiz - FD 3500 DK 4100 Victiv 5400 Yahoo 18
Opponent- Det (Simon) R Park- @Bos
Gonna head back to the old Papi well again for the early slate. Converted reliever and old person Alfredo Simon should have his hands full with Ortiz, who has a .906 OPS and 15 of his 17 homers against righties in 266 plate appearances. Ortiz has also enjoyed a .078 OPS point bump playing in Fenway as compared to other parks during his career. All in all, this is a very solid play.

Late Slate
Paul Goldschmidt - FD 4700 DK 5700 Victiv 5900 Yahoo 20
Opponent- Mil (Jungmann) R Park- @Ari
Doug (editor in chief here at DFSR) always scolds me for not including Goldschmidt enough. Well, here you go, Doug. I know you're control-F'ing this post to see what I've written about you, and now you've found it. So what gives with Goldie? Well, it's true - Goldschmidt is better against left handed pitching. But, the man with the league's 2nd best OPS against lefties also has the 2nd best OPS in the league against righties. Goldschmidt is just playing at a different level from normal human beings this year, and I expect he'll cut down Taylor Jungmann (and his luck-riddled 2.04 ERA) like so many blades of grass. Or something. Yeah, I love spending up on Paul here.

Eric Hosmer - FD 2900 DK 4200 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Hou (Feldman) R Park- @KC
A super boring high floor play for your 50/50s and double ups. I'm bored even writing this, but I'll go ahead and make a case anyway. Hosmer's .888 OPS against right handers this year is more than enough value for these paltry prices, even if he is highly unlikely to go off for any big total in a given game. But hey, with two 8.75 FanDuel point games in his last 5, maybe he's turning the corner on that front as well. Okay, I'm kind of getting into this thing. #summerofhosmer. Okay, that felt stupid. Moving on.

Hotpunts.com: Lucas Duda. The owner of one of the league's best line drive rates, Duda could take advantage of the young and supple Zach Lee. In a hitting sense, I mean. Okay, I'm really digging a hole in this whole first base thing. Still, I like Duda in a positive platoon spot against an inexperienced young righty.

Second base

Early Slate
Robinson Cano - FD 3400 DK 3500 Victiv 5100 Yahoo
Opponent- Tor (Hutchison) R Park- @Sea
Cano has been peppering the ball recently, and pulled his once dismal OPS over .700, which seemed unfathomable earlier this season. He's facing Drew Hutchison today, and while Hutchison is a better pitcher than his ERA suggests, I'll take a locked in Cano over all of the other potential keystoners in a very short slate. I may sprinkle some Pedroia in, but overall, Cano's my guy.

Also considered: Pedroia.

Late Slate
Brandon Phillips - FD 3200 DK 4400 Victiv 4900 Yahoo
Opponent- Col (Rusin) L Park- @Col
Phillips remains pretty reasonably priced for a guy who is hitting in Coors Field. Like I noted last night, Phillips has lost some of his real upside power, as his 5 homers this season will attest. But against the left handed Chris Rusin, in Coors?? Color me less than scared. Phillips has been .080 OPS points better against left handed pitching over the course of his career, and I think he's a great upside play against a guy who can't maintain a K/9 better than 6 this season.

Johnny Giavotella - FD 2300 DK 2800 Victiv 3500 Yahoo 13
Opponent- Tex (Gallardo) R Park- @ana
The Angels keep trotting Giavotella out in the leadoff spot, the daily fantasy baseball sites continue to price him near the minimum, and our projection system continues to churn him out as a good play night after night. Listen - Giavotella is a lousy major league hitter - but he bats in front of some guys that most assuredly are not. When he gets on base, he's likely to score. The increased at bats mean more chances to rack up hits and runs. I think I'm just typing to talk myself into it now, but I've been playing him in cash games when I pay up for pitching, and I haven't been disappointed.

Shortstop

Early Slate
Brad Miller - FD 2200 DK 2800 Victiv 3800 Yahoo 8
Opponent- Tor (Hutchison) R Park- @Sea
Wrote this about Miller last night, and it still applies word for word. Here you go!

Miller's season line is nothing to write home about, but he's got more going for him than the average fantasy player knows. He's got a .782 OPS against right handed pitching this season, and his 8 homers and 10 steals through more than half a season speak to a level of upside that most shortstops can't boast. And for the minimum salary against a non-ace? I like it.

Late Slate
Alcides Escobar - FD 2500 DK 3900 Victiv 4600 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Hou (Feldman) R Park- @KC
He's the Johnny Giavotella of shortstop. A bad hitter who bats leadoff because his manager his stupid. But what do we care? We'll take the huge pile of at bats with decent hitters to knock him home for near minimum salary any day. As usual, shortstop is a wasteland, so getting a contact hitter against a bad pitcher like Feldman feels like a coup frankly.

A slew of cheap guys, and Carlos Correa. To be real with you (because I know you like it when I keep it real), I'm a little skeptical that the 20 year old Correa can keep up this power... but it's awfully tempting to take him against Duffy's batting practice offerings in a nice hitter's spot. Still, I'll probably just go cheap with one of the myriad options. I refuse to list them all here, but you can check out a free three day trial of the old projection system if you're interested.

Third base

Early Slate
Kris Bryant - FD 3100 DK 4100 Victiv 5000 Yahoo
Opponent- Phi (Hamels) L Park- @Chc
Cole Hamels is generally awesome, it's true. Bryant could absolutely strike out 4 times or something in this game. But his ridiculous .279 ISO against left handed pitching might wind up being his career number, and his prospect pedigree has me thinking that he'll be putting up big games against guys like Hamels soon enough. Don't get me wrong, this is a risky play. I won't blame you if you scurry over to Kyle Seager for the safety against Hutchison. But fortune favors the bold, and I'll take the guy with 80 power in a positive platoon situation.

Late Slate
Mike Moustakas - FD 2700 DK 3700 Victiv 4400 Yahoo 14
Opponent- Hou (Feldman) R Park- @KC
Things are pretty ugly as we progress to the late slate at third base. Moustakas frankly stands like a beacon of hope and virtue. He's got an .880 OPS against right handed pitching this season, and his lack of strikeouts combined with Feldman's total inability to strike anyone out means we should see lots of hard contact in a good hitter's park. This seems like a really high floor play, and with 2 homers in the last week, he might be turning into a legit upside guy as well.

Trevor Plouffe - FD 3100 DK 3900 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 16
Opponent- NYY (Sabathia) L Park- @Min
Plouffe's a guy who always bubbles to the top of our rankings when he's facing a left handed pitcher, and that's what he'll be doing on Saturday night. While CC Sabathia used to strike fear into the hearts of fantasy players everywhere, he doesn't so much do that anymore. With 360+ innings in a row now where his ERA has been a mile worse than his xFIP, it sure looks like he's just giving up tons of hard contact and getting rocked. Plouffe's been .100 OPS points better against lefties during his career, and I love him as an upside play today.

Consider: Miguel Sano, for otherworldly upside against CC. The man can just hit bombs.

Outfield

Jose Bautista - FD 4600 DK 4500 Victiv 5200 Yahoo 20
Opponent- Sea (Happ) L Park- @Sea
If you are looking for the guy with arguably the best raw points upside on the board today, you don't have to look a lot further than Bautista. Jose has destroyed left handed pitching ever since that one year where he randomly became amazing, and the Blue Jays themselves lead the league in OPS vs. left handers (their .836 number is .050 points better than 2nd place), meaning Bautistia should have the opportunity for counting stats galore. Love this play.

Early Slate
Adam Jones - FD 3100 DK 4100 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 17
Opponent- TB (Ramirez) R Park- @TB
Jones is one of the rare reverse platoon guys in the major leagues, posting an OPS .045 points higher against right handed pitching during his career. Today he'll face the league average Erasmo Ramirez, and while I don't think this is a phenomenal upside play, I think it's a solid play on a slate that offers very few great options in the outfield.

Also considered: Yoenis Cespedes, Rajai Davis. Steven Wright is just so damned bad, and they should have a nice opportunity to put up big numbers in a favorable park to hit in.

Late Slate
Bryce Harper - FD 4600 DK 5000 Victiv 5500 Yahoo 19
Opponent- Pit (Burnett) R Park- @Pit
A man on a different planet. I'm honestly not sure what sure to say about the guy to do him justice, but his 1.188 OPS against right handed pitching does enough talking on its own. Burnett is a fine pitcher, even at this late stage in his career, but while Harper is priced competitively with the other big bats in the game it seems insane not to play him.

Marlon Byrd - FD 3100 DK 4300 Victiv 5200 Yahoo
Opponent- Col (Rusin) L Park- @Col
Old man river has a .918 OPS against left handers this year, and will be up against the awful Chris Rusin in Coors Field. Not gonna write anymore about this one.

Curtis Granderson - FD 3200 DK 3900 Victiv 4600 Yahoo 16
Opponent- LAD (Lee) R Park- @Nym
The Grandy Man has an unfathomably bad OPS against left handed pitching this season. His .350 (not a typo) figure means he's almost a sure thing to get pinch hit for if the game is close late. This means he really can't be a cash game play. But! The upside he can bring to the table against right handed pitchers is sizeable, and I'm willing to take a risk in a big tournament.

Also considered: Christian Yelich. Some people will play Trout, but I'll take Harper.

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