Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo and Victiv 7/22/15

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Pitchers

Early Slate
Pitching on the early slate is a crime against humanity. The good news is you'll have plenty to spend on some of the big bats going on this slate. The bad news is DFS sites are still insisting you roster a pitcher.

Mike Bolsinger - FD 6100 DK 7200 Victiv Yahoo 36
Opponent- Atl (Teheran) R Park- @Atl
The good news on Bolsinger is his peripherals look pretty decent this season, putting up close to a 3:1 K:BB rate to go with a low threes xFIP. That's the good part. The bad part is dude must be making dinner plans early on nights of his starts because he never goes deep into games. On a slate like this one, we'll have to hope he isn't much of an early hit-the-town guy and can last against the Braves who are a middling offense at best. They don't strike out a ton, but also exhibit very little pop. Bolsinger is basically free as far as pitchers go.

Matt Cain - FD 7300 DK 7900 Victiv Yahoo 42
Opponent- SD (Shields) R Park- @SD
Bear with me here as he isn't someone I would normall recommend. But this slate's pitching isn't normal. It's tough to pay up for James Shields against the Giants. And Jordan Zimmermann doesn't strike out enough batters for his price (though I wouldn't fault you against the Mets). Cain's run a little bad since coming back from the DL especially in the LOB% and HR/FB. His xFIP is in the high 3's, much lower than the ERA. And he's facing a Padres team ranked 27th in wOBA against righties. They strike out 22% of the time and Petco decreases power in all directions. I think, on such a dicey pitching slate, that Cain makes for a decent enough plug and play. Phew, I got through it.

Late Slate
Jose Fernandez - FD 10300 DK 10000 Victiv Yahoo 54
Opponent- Ari (Ray) L Park- @Ari
He was looking elite again against the Phillies the other night until the Marlins inexplicably pulled him after 70 pitches and eventually lost the game. It's that pitch count nightmare that has me more than a little worried again. At the same time, it served to continue to keep the price in check as he faces the D-Backs tonight. Arizona is a middle of the road team and the ballpark doesn't help Jose at all. But he's the best talent on this slate by far and his salary isn't going to crush you for the potential upside.

Anibal Sanchez - FD 8700 DK 9000 Victiv Yahoo 50
Opponent- Sea (Montgomery) L Park- @Det
The Mariners rank in the bottom third of the majors in team wOBA against righty pitching this season and strike out more than 22% of the time. That's almost enough to seel me on Sanchez's upside relative to price in this matchup. His outings of late have been solid if not spectacular though he's getting the job done going later into games and locking down a fair amount of wins. He's a favorite for the W again facing Mike Montgomery. This is mostly a price play for on Sanchez.
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Catchers

Early Slate
Kyle Schwarber - FD 2500 DK 4000 Victiv 3500 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Cin (Leake) R Park- @Cin
Fair warning: a lot of these early slate picks are going to look almost identical to yesterday's plays. There's no way around that really. A bunch of the better plays were on the Cubs and Rockies and that is the case again with this slate. I'll try to not re-hash word-for-word every guy (though later I'll cave with that) but such is the case with MLB DFS sometimes. Schwarber is a catcher hitting second, coming very cheap on FD and facing a weaker arm in Mike Leake. On FanDuel he's the clear play as long as he's in the lineup. On the other sites it's closer.

If he's in the middle of the lineup again today, then Wilin Rosario is a great play on DraftKings and has multi-position eligibility to boot.

Late Slate
Victor Martinez - FD 3400 DK 3900 Victiv 5500 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Sea (Montgomery) L Park- @Det
He doesn't qualify at catcher everywhere, but where he does take advantage. And really, where he doesn't, take advantage. V-Mart is among the best hitters in the league over the last couple of seasons against lefties. In that span he has a whopping .475 wOBA and OPS well over 1.100. He mashes southpaws and should be in line for a decent game against Mike Montgomery. Martinez is nearly impossible for lefties to strike out and walks more than he does down swinging. His price is totally reasonable on nearly every site considering what he does in this platoon.

Consider Yadier Molina

First base

Early Slate
Anthony Rizzo - FD 3700 DK 4900 Victiv 5700 Yahoo 18
Opponent- Cin (Leake) R Park- @Cin
Liked Rizzo quite a bit yesterday and he cam up a bit short. I like him even more today. Mike Leake induces ground balls on the semi-regular, but his pitching profile has hitters either walking or putting the ball in play as he strikes out less that seven batters per nine. Rizzo is uber-patient and pretty much crushing the ball this season. The park plays up power to lefties and Leake can give up the long ball. Rizzo's price has come down some in the short term and not having to pay for arms makes him an easy fit.

Consider Yonder Alonso on the super cheap, though I don't think you need to

Late Slate
Chris Davis - FD 3400 DK 3900 Victiv 5200 Yahoo 17
Opponent- NYY (Nova) R Park- @NYY
Like I said yesterday, we want to target Crush against righties who don't put up elite K numbers. Hey Ivan Nova! Nova, in three starts this season is striking out only 4.5 batters per nine while basically looking bad. Davis' swing and miss rate is obviously something to behold, meaning the price stays in check much of the time as he slinks back to the dugout after another punch out. But that expectation is greatly diminished here and he has the advantage of going in the second best park in the majors for lefty power.

Chris Carter - FD 3000 DK 3100 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Bos (Miley) L Park- @Hou
I'll be taking some shots on power upside with this position knowing that there's a good chance of disappointment. Carter, like Davis, is a three true outcome type of hitter. With the main outcome being the K. But he has power upside and does his damage against lefty pitching. This is a home run play plain and simple. I have his ceiling as higher than almost anyone else in the same price tier, but the floor is low, low, low. Keep that in mind.

Second base

Early Slate
Second base is a moderate disaster zone today. It's gross.

Jason Kipnis - FD 4000 DK 4900 Victiv 5000 Yahoo 19
Opponent- Mil (Lohse) R Park- @Mil
Obviously Kipnis doesn't fit the "gross" billing, but he does represent an overpay. That being said, he's putting together a fantastic season with an OPS creeping toward .900 and a wOBA over .380. He's taking walks while also getting a little lucky with the BABIP. Today he's facing Kyle Lohse who's not as bad as the 6+ ERA suggests, but is still as average as they come. Miller Park helps for power as it plays above average for lefties. Again, you are paying up for Kipnis here, but the second base field is really weak.

Logan Forsythe - FD 2900 DK 3400 Victiv 4000 Yahoo 14
Opponent- Phi (Morgan) L Park- @Phi
Don't sleep on this guy against lefties. He's put up a 124 wRC+ in this split while also running a little bad in the BABIP department. He tends to hit in the middle of the order against southpaws and should be there again today against Adam Morgan.

Late Slate
Ben Zobrist - FD 2900 DK 3800 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Tor (Doubront) L Park- @Oak
Wrote about him yesterday and like so many others today, he gets the nod again. A reminder that Zobrist, as a switch hitter, is much better against lefty pitching. He has a .370 wOBA over the last couple of seasons in this split with some power to boot. He's a tough strikeout, going down on strikes only 9% of the time in that platoon. That's a good line against a sometimes wild pitcher like Felix Doubront. Doubront's walked close to four batters per nine over his career (though has reined in the number over a few starts this season). Zobrist is my go-to cash game play on this slate.

Ian Kinsler - FD 3500 DK 4300 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Sea (Montgomery) L Park- @Det
I have him almost right in line with Zobrist on this slate, though Kinsler will cost a little bit more. He's a contact fiend against lefty pitching as he rarely strikes out or walks in this split. Better for his career againt southpaws, though has struggled some in the last couple of years. He's still hitting around the top of the lineup and works in well to a few Tigers' stacks if you go that route.

Strongly consider Jose Altuve on DraftKings

Shortstop

Early Slate
Troy Tulowitzki - FD 4600 DK 5200 Victiv 5600 Yahoo 19
Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @Col
If he's not a 100% start on this slate with the state of pitching then you are going against some dead money. Don't really know any other way to put it. Here is what I wrote yesterday about him and just about everything except the pitching matchup holds true for today.
The price isn't that high but the upside is. Tulo has everything going for him in this matchup. Best hitter’s park on the planet in Coors? Check. Facing a lefty? Check. That lefty is bad? Check. (That’s how you successfully use the “check” device in a write up. Take notes.) Tulo’s numbers against lefties over the last two seasons have been nothing short of all-time great. He’s rocking a 1.200 OPS with an absurd .504 wOBA. Even adjusting for the park, those numbers are eye-popping. Tulo is the clear, going away, pick at shortstop today. Don't think you need to hem and haw too much about this play.

Late Slate
Jhonny Peralta - FD 3300 DK 4300 Victiv 5000 Yahoo 16
Opponent- CWS (Danks) L Park- @cws
You will have to slightly overpay here but that's fine as there's a decent amount to like about Jhonny here. Few other shortstops not rhyming with Mulowitzki have put up the kind of numbers as Peralta in the last couple of years against lefties. His mid .800's OPS and 137 wRC+ are damned good for anyone, but especially for shortstops. He's facing the always stackable John Danks in U.S. Cellular Field, one of the best parks in the majors for righty power. Peralta's midrange price doesn't offer oodles of upside, but he seems safer than most other shortstops.

Consider Adeiny Hechavarria

Third base

Early Slate
There a couple of interesting plays at third base today, which you should embrace because usually this position blows.

Nolan Arenado - FD 5000 DK 5400 Victiv 5800 Yahoo 20
Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @Col
Look, I hate to be a copy and paster, those guys are the worst. But much like Tulo, what I wrote about him yesterday still stands for today. So Ctrl+C, Ctrl+V it is:
Our system actually doesn't love him here and I'm havinga bit of a problem figuring out why. He hasn't been lights out over the last couple of seasons against lefties (considering the home park boost) with an .895 OPS and 124 wRC+. Those numbers aren't bad of course, they just don't rock your world for a dude sitting at or above $5K on the major sites. That being said, because of the pitching situation you can take chances on a possible overpay with a guy like Arenado against a pitcher like HarrisonPerez. He's not a lock like Tulo, but of course you need to put him on the radar.

Evan Longoria - FD 2600 DK 3500 Victiv 5000 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Phi (Morgan) L Park- @Phi
A while back James and I were in the deepest of dynasty leagues. Like Bryce Harper drafted when he was a junior in high school deep (I'm not lying about that). And we had Evan Longoria. Oh how we high-fived each other on being able to watch the next fifteen years of this guy's certain Hall of Fame future play out. Woops. But even as his demise continues, there's still something to like when he faces lefties. Over the last two seasons he's put up a mid .800's OPS in this platoon and is coming near punt prices now for a guy hitting in the middle of the order. There are still times to buy guys like Longoria. Today is one of them.

Obviously strongly consider Adrian Beltre. Told you 3B was stacked

Late Slate
Miguel Sano - FD 2500 DK 3600 Victiv 3700 Yahoo 18
Opponent- LAA (Wilson) L Park- @Ana
The major league sample size is small, but promising. Of course he's BABIP'd his way to some of his early run numbers, but he's still talking walks though striking out a ton. He tweaked an ankle so check on his status heading into this game, but if he's in the middle of the lineup then these prices are near must plays on this slate. He's facing the lefty C.J. Wilson and should be in a good spot. Again, check lineups prior to game time.

Consider Mike Moustakas and Martin Prado on the cheap

Outfield

Early Slate
Joc Pederson - FD 2900 DK 3500 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Atl (Teheran) R Park- @Atl
Dude can get frustrating for sure. He strikes out a lot. But he also draws a ton of walks, hits for power and most importantly, remains the Dodgers' leadoff hitter. As long as he's in that spot, with his kind of power upside and ability to get on base? Then you should buy as the price drops and drops. I'm sticking with him through the lean times because he can pay off in big ways. And he gets an extra plate appearance or so to do damage.

Ryan Braun - FD 4600 DK 4800 Victiv 5500 Yahoo 19
Carlos Gomez - FD 4400 DK 4700 Victiv 5400 Yahoo 18
Opponent- Cle (Anderson) R Park- @Mil
Let's examine Cody Anderson for a second. Sure he has a sub one ERA. But if you not even a little deeper, you'll see an xFIP in the mid 4's, a strike out rate below four per nine and a guy who's only survived because a .165 BABIP against in his limited starts. Both Braun and Gomez can hit righties above average and you can afford one or both on this slate because of the pitching (which I've said ad nauseum).

Late Slate
Mike Trout - FD 5300 DK 5700 Victiv 6100 Yahoo 23
Opponent- Min (Pelfrey) R Park- @ana
He'll cost, but he's worth it. For starters, he's nearly guaranteed to either have the ball in play in every at bat, or to draw a walk. That's what is expected when a guy like Trout faces a pitcher like Mike Pelfrey. Big Pelf strikes out less than five batters per nine and walks about two and a half. He's got a mid 4's xFIP and just basically is a guy with an arm. Trout is a reverse splits hitter who excels against everyone, but especially righties. You'll need to pay up, but he's the guy to go for it.

Matt Holliday - FD 3100 DK 3900 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 16
Opponent- CWS (Danks) L Park- @cws
Pimped Holliday hard yesterday and dude delivered with a home run and a bunch of RBIs. A lot of the same considerations are in play again. Here's what I said yesterday:
A lot to like about Holliday today. He's going in a fantastic park in U.S. Cellular Field that plays up righty power just about as good as any park in the majors. Holliday has also shown almost elite production against lefties over the last couple of years. His 171 wRC+ and .418 wOBA are among the best in the league in the lefty platoon split over that period of time. He's getting a solid matchup against Carlos Rodon John Danks who has some significant control issues stinks. The price is right in the value zone for Holliday and I don't think many people will be on his bat today.

Rajai Davis - FD 2300 DK 3600 Victiv 4300 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Sea (Montgomery) L Park- @Det
If he's hitting leadoff again, then I'd consider him close to a must play. Rajai's put in work against lefties with a mid .900's OPS over the last two seasons in this split. There's some BABIP help in there, but his speed will always keep that number high. From the leadoff spot, in this matchup, these prices are super juicy.

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