Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo, and Victiv 7/19/15

Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.

Pitchers

It's a crazy day to choose a starting pitcher. FanDuel has 9 guys priced over $10,000, which has got to be the most since opening day - and I"m not even sure there were that many going that day. And the odd thing? On a points per dollar basis, our projection system really doesn't love any of them. Now, obviously it's going to play out that some of them have elite games. No doubt about it. What we're saying is that it's quite hard to differentiate one from the other. If I had to choose one, it'd be

Dallas Keuchel - FD 10400 DK 10300 Victiv Yahoo 51
It's kind of weird to write this name given the level of pitching today, but here we are. Keuchel is a very interesting guy. His 2.72 xFIP is absolutely elite, but he puts it together in a way that none of the other creme de la creme pitchers do. His 7.47 K/9 is nothing extraordinary, and his 2.23 BB/9, while good, is not out of this world either. Where Keuchel butters his bread? Groundballs. His 64.1% GB rate is the 2nd best in the major leagues, and it means he's as big a favorite to go deep in a game as anyone. The other great thing here is the match-up. The Rangers have oddly become one of the very best match-ups in the league for left handed pitching. They've struck out at the 7th highest rate of any team against left handed pitching, and they've got the 6th worst wOBA. They're also about .020 wOBA points worse when they're on the road. While Gallardo has a sparkly ERA, his 79 K/40 BB in 113 IP paints a much worse picture. All in all, I like Keuchel best among the big dollar plays.

Cole Hamels - FD 9800 DK 10100 Victiv Yahoo 51
In the next tier down, price wise, Cole Hamels looks like a darn good play. While the Marlins have hit left handed pitching pretty well this season, they've struck out at the 10th highest rate of any team against left handed pitching, making them a nice team to go for high upside against. He's also facing off against Dan Haren - another guy who's running way ahead of his xFIP. His 4.39 figure (propped up by a terrible 31.8% flyball rate) shows him to be a below league average pitcher, and I think even the lowly Phils can get around on him. I like Keuchel better, but this will be a guy very few people play who could have as much upside as anyone.

Shelby Miller - FD 8600 DK 9100 Victiv Yahoo 45
If you want to go even further off board, Shelby Miller is an oddly enticing upside play. Since he's become a Brave, he's been better in every conceivable way. His strikeouts are up, his walks are down, and he's inducing more groundballs. He's still not an elite K guy, but he has averaged better than 8 Ks a start in his last 3 starts. But Miller is sort of besides the point, here. The upside here comes from the Chicago Cubs. The Northsiders have struck out at a ludicrous 24.5% rate against right handed pitching this season (good for 2nd worst in the league, behind only the historically futile Astros), and have a tendency of making run of the mill right handers looks like Bob Gibson. The fly in the ointment here is Arrieta - his presence on the mound for the Cubs makes a win decidedly less likely. But you aren't throwing Miller in 50/50s or double-ups - you're grabbing him in large tournaments. Or maybe you aren't. But I'll be rolling the dice here and there.

Also considered: Most of the expensive guys. It wasn't easy picking just the one, but it didn't seem like it was worth it to write up 3 guys at all the same price. I'll just go with Keuchel when I have that much to spend, and pick between the other two when I want to spend less.
 

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Catchers

Derek Norris - FD 2300 DK 3200 Victiv 3900 Yahoo 13
With every single good pitcher going today, one man stands like an oasis in the desert. Not Derek Norris. Kyle Kendrick. He was the owner of the league's worst xFIP until another Chris Young blow-up, but his 4.92 number is even more embarrassing than his 4.72 K/9. He's one of three pitchers in the majors with a K/9 lower than his xFIP. He's just awful. Now, Norris is significantly worse against right handed pitching, and may not play tomorrow. Against a guy like Kendrick, though, I'll go ahead and roll the dice on Norris' huge power.

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 3100 DK 3300 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 16
Another guy hitting against one of the few bad pitchers going on Sunday. And Locke really isn't even horrible, he's more like league average. After a terrible and injury ridden start to the season, Lucroy has been on the rebound in the month of July. He's got a .758 OPS, and looks a lot more comfortable than he had been. He's also got an .857 OPS against left handers for his career, including 21 homers and 8 SB in his 592 career PA against them. There's a lot more upside here than you might think, and Locke's relatively low K rate gives him a higher floor as well.

Yadier Molina - FD 2400 DK 3200 Victiv 4300 Yahoo 13
Your dirt cheap option if you are spooked by Norris' platoon split. He's been .030 OPS points better against lefties during his career, and Niese is having his worst xFIP year since becoming a full time member of the rotation. The low K rate paired with Molina's contact ability makes this the high-floor cheap option of the day.

First base

Jose Abreu - FD 3200 DK 4400 Victiv Yahoo 18
Another day, another Abreu recommendation. Yesterday's play against Guthrie certainly didn't go as intended, but the play here today might be even better. Duffy is a step up from Guthrie in terms of stuff, but he has no idea what he's doing with it, as his 41 Ks against 27 BBs in 61 IP would suggest. But it's Duffy's handedness that makes the sale here. Abreu has been .100 OPS points better against left handed pitching in his short MLB career, including a drool-worthy .255 ISO. I'll stick with him after a disappointing performance last night.

Anthony Rizzo - FD 3900 DK 4700 Victiv 5600 Yahoo 18
Rizzo has been slaughtering right handed pitching this season to the tune of a .950 OPS, and while Miller is a good pitcher, he's nothing compared to the true studs most of the other good hitters are facing. Rizzo is an interesting guy compared with most first basemen as well. He's got the power you'd expect, but his 12 steals speak to an added bonus that you just don't typically get from high priced guys at the position. If Miller flames out today (and he very well could), Rizzo could wind up being the best 1B play on the board.

A high ceiling punt if he plays, is Mike Napoli. He can still mash left handed pitching, and while Santiago is solid, he's decidedly less solid than most of the guys going today.

A high-floor punt is Yonder Alonso. If you do spend a ton on pitching today, which you probably will, he's about .080 OPS points better against right handed pitching, and happens to be facing one of the very worst pitchers in baseball in Kyle Kendrick. He also has no power and no speed. Still, though, on a points per dollar basis it looks pretty good.

Second base

Ben Zobrist - FD 3000 DK 3700 Victiv 4800 Yahoo 16
While Tommy Milone has a nice ERA, he's still one of the very worst pitchers going on a slate of tough ones. His 4.33 xFIP paints a pretty good picture of what his pitch-to-contact approach can provide, and the As shouldn't have any problem bruising their ex here. Zobrist, for his part, is about .030 OPS points better against left handed pitching for his career, and still has one of the best approaches in the game (as his elite BB/K ratio this season would suggest). I love him for a high floor, even if he's not the high upside guy he once was.

Johnny Giavotella - FD 2400 DK 3000 Victiv 3600 Yahoo 14
A simple case of opportunity. Giavotella still bats lead-off for the Angels (for some reason), and while he isn't much of a hitter, it's not easy to get a guy who is going to get this many cuts at the top of a line-up as powerful as the Angels in a positive platoon situation. Eduardo Rodriguez is a nice young pitcher, but is he going to be able to hang with Pujols and Trout? Not likely. Giavotella has only had a negative score on FanDuel once in the month of July, and has 3 4+ fantasy point performances in his last 9. All in all, I like this play quite a bit.

Neil Walker - FD 3100 DK 3700 Victiv 5300 Yahoo 17
While Walker isn't replicating last season's sharp performance, he's still a plus offensive player at the position. He's also something more than that against right handed pitching. All 7 of his homers and his 3 steals have come against right handed pitching this season, and his .785 OPS against northpaws is just fine. Today he's facing Taylor Jungmann, who is a good prospect, but not yet a guy that should give a veteran hitter like Walker fits. I think I prefer the above guys here, but I like Walker for a bit of sneaky upside.

Shortstop

Marcus Semien - FD 2200 DK 3300 Victiv 4100 Yahoo 13
Semien's a guy who is one of the very best plays at the position on a semi-consistent basis that you may not have heard of if you're new to the whole daily fantasy baseball thing. He's not a guy with maximum offensive talent, but he's got 7 walks against just 12 Ks in 88 PA against left handed pitching this season, and an .802 OPS. That's really a lot to get from the position, and on a day with so many aces going, getting a shortstop with an .802 OPS against a below league average lefty like Milone is sort of a dream spot. I like him in any format.

Jean Segura - FD 2500 DK 3700 Victiv 4300 Yahoo 14
It's unsexy Brewers stack day! Segura has swung his platoon split around toward favoring left handed pitching this season, and his good contact rate and plus speed make him pass for a high floor and high ceiling play for the position. He's obviously not a guy that's going to go and put up a ten point game, but on a strictly points per dollar basis, you could do a lot worse than trying to vulture some RBI off of Segura's bat given the guys that bat in front of him.

Jhonny Peralta - FD 3200 DK 4200 Victiv 4600 Yahoo 16
If you have a few extra bucks to spend on shortstop today, Jhonny Peralta looks clearly like the best play. He bats clean-up between some solid hitters, giving him as much opportunity for counting stats as any shortstop on any given day. His 14 homers are tops at the position, and he's been .050 OPS points better against left handed pitching over the course of his career. I've given the details of Jon Niese's descent into mediocrity, and Peralta could absolutely take advantage.

Third base

Aramis Ramirez - FD 3100 DK 3100 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 15
Right, so, Ramirez is a shell of the player he used to be. Let's get that out of the way right from jump street. And on a points per dollar basis, he isn't the great play on the board (that goes to Freese, listed below). But he can still hit left handed pitching. In case you are untrustworthy and running off to double-check my claims, I know that his season line looks pretty bad. When you dig a little deeper, though, it starts to look different. He has a ridiculously unsustainable .098 BABIP against left handed pitching this season, and has walked almost as much as he's struck out. He's still seeing the ball well, he's just not had the luck to turn it into great statistical performance. That will chance at some point. For his career, he's a .913 OPS guy against lefties, and while that won't hold with age, I'd guess his true talent somewhere in the .800-.850 range. That kind of production is easily worth this price against this pitcher, so I think this is a reasonably high upside play with a nice floor as well.

David Freese - FD 2300 DK 3800 Victiv 4000 Yahoo 14
A great way to pay for your high priced pitcher habit today is to grab guys like Freese. He's cheap, he's got a solid lifetime OPS against left handed pitching (.833), and hits behind some legit professionals. Not much else to see here - just a solid punt on a day not featuring many of them.

Also considered: Ugh. Our system likes Adrian Beltre at this price against Keuchel, but I'm not super convinced. It also likes Will Middlebrooks against his platoon splits. All in all, I like Ramirez and Freese, but I figured it'd be nice to give you some options.

Outfield

A zillion cheap guys: Too many to list. Grab a free three day trial of our projection system if you want the list. I'll feature more expensive guys in this piece.

Justin Upton - FD 2900 DK 4200 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 15
It's odd, but Upton has reversed his platoon split this season, and it looks legit. He's striking out more against left handed pitching, and walking less. While he may be something like platoon neutral from a true talent perspective, the idea is the same - we can definitely grab his huge power against one of the very worst pitchers in the league. The price is affordable, and I think you can play him in any format that you'd like.

Nelson Cruz - FD 3400 DK 4400 Victiv Yahoo 17
Nelson Cruz has a 1.265 OPS against left handed pitching this season. That's not a typo. CC Sabathia has allowed a .932 OPS against right handed hitting this season. That's not a typo. He also happens to be hitting away from the terrible hitters' park he calls home, and in a place where hitters put balls in the seats a lot more than they do in many places. I love Cruz today - he's almost a must play.

Matt Holliday - FD 3200 DK 4200 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 11
Holliday's quietly got the highest OBP of his storied career, and while the power isn't what it was when he was in Coors, he's still a lot to handle for opposing pitchers. If you decide to stack right handed Cards against Niese, he should definitely be featured prominently.

Khris Davis - FD 3000 DK 3400 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 9
Ryan Braun - FD 4600 DK 4800 Victiv 5500 Yahoo 20
Carlos Gomez - FD 4500 DK 4700 Victiv 5500 Yahoo
Just a right handed Brewers pile against the left handed Locke. Know that you can play any of these guys, but our system likes Khris Davis best on a points per dollar basis.

Hunter Pence - FD 3200 DK 5100 Victiv 5300 Yahoo 18
Patrick Corbin was shaping up to be a fine young pitcher before going down for surgery, but he hasn't done anything in his return that makes me want to avoid playing guys against him in the tough pitchers' park he calls home. Pence has his highest OPS since 2011, and has been about .060 OPS points better against left handed pitching for his career. A very solid upside play.

Considered: Mike Trout, though our system prefers Braun if you're spending huge.

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