DFSR is proud to bring you our newest contributor Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly Nascar picks, analysis and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. If you are new to DraftKings Nascar DFS be sure to click on the banner below.
Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Quaker State 400? Chris is selling a DraftKings and a Fantasy Feud lineup plus a cheatsheet for $5. Just scroll to the bottom of the picks. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.
Kentucky Speedway - Sparta, KY
Track Length - 1.5 Mile D-Shaped Tri Oval Speedway
This week NASCAR heads to Kentucky for the Quaker State 400. It is only the 5th Sprint Cup Series race to be held at Kentucky and we are already seeing a new rules package to prevent more down-force, thus creating more passing opportunities. The reason for the change? In the past four races here it has been very difficult to pass. Kyle Busch won the inaugural race and dominated by leading 125 laps then the next year he led 118 laps but lost the race late to Brad Keselowski. Matt Kenseth won the race here in 2013 after Jimmie Johnson dominated by leading 182 laps. Then last year Keselowski dominated for the win after leading 199 laps. NASCAR is trying to create more passing during the race to make it more exciting for the fans.
Kentucky Speedway is one of the most rough and bumpy tracks on the circuit. Some drivers love the track while others definitely do not. When looking at the past four years results it is pretty easy to point out the drivers who like it vs. those who don't. In the past four races at Kentucky there is four drivers(Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Jeff gordon) who have finished inside the top 10 each time, and only 8 other drivers who have finished inside the top 10 twice. The new rules package might prohibit drivers from completely dominating and leading the majority of laps but I still feel the drivers who have had success here in the past will find a way again to get to the front and stay there.
This week I will be including Fantasy Feud salaries to my article and cheatsheet. Fantasy Feud is offering two different types of daily fantasy games. First off they have a salary cap game much like DraftKings except you are working with a $1,000,000 salary cap. Who doesn't wanna play with more money? The second game they offer is a pro pick'em game. They give us four groups of seven drivers and we have to choose one driver in each group who will get the most points. The scoring system awards points for finishing position, laps led, and finish differential. My cheatsheet, moving forward, will now include Fantasy Feud salaries, and I will also include sample lineups for the salary cap game as well as the pick'em game. If you have any questions about the Fantasy Feud game be sure to hit me up on Twitter.
Jimmie Johnson
DraftKings - $13,100
Fantasy Feud - $255,000
Vegas Odds - 7/1
Sprint Cup Standings – 3rd
Qualified - 6th
Jimmie is one of the four drivers who have finished inside the top 10 in each Sprint Cup race here. He has a 7.0 average finish at Kentucky in those four years. In his previous five races this year he is averaging a 6.2 finish. He has four wins on the season and will be looking for another this weekend.
Brad Keselowski
DraftKings - $12,100
Fantasy Feud - $235,000
Vegas Odds - 8/1
Sprint Cup Standings – 7th
Qualified - 2nd
Keselowski has recorded two wins here at Kentucky since the Sprint Cup moved a race here five years ago. He has finished in the top 10 in three of the four races and has also led the most laps(346) in that time. I will only be using Keselowski in GPP's this week as his form is a bit off. In the last five races he has only recorded one top 10 finish. No better way to break out of a slump than to return to a track where you dominate.
Matt Kenseth
DraftKings - $11,300
Fantasy Feud - $200,000
Vegas Odds - 8.5/1
Sprint Cup Standings – 9th
Qualified - 16th
He has been pretty quiet lately but has dominated here at Kentucky. He and teammate Kyle Busch share in the dominance both having a 4.5 average finish at Kentucky and both having a win. If Kenseth starts outside the top 10 this week he is a lock for all my cash games.
Kyle Larson
DraftKings - $9,800
Fantasy Feud - $165,000
Vegas Odds - 26/1
Sprint Cup Standings – 18th
Qualified - 1
Larson has been trending in the wrong direction the past three weeks not finishing inside the top 15 once. He has only raced this track once and finished in the 40th position. This feels like a week where he will be overlooked and be low owned in DFS. Take advantage in your GPP tournaments.
Ryan Newman
DraftKings - $9,300
Fantasy Feud - $150,000
Vegas Odds - 51/1
Sprint Cup Standings – 14th
Qualified - 26th
Newman has recorded two top 5 finishes in his four starts here with a 13.8 average finish. He is on a bit of a roll lately as well with two straight top 10 finishes. Momentum is huge and Newman should be able to take advantage this week and record another top 10 finish at Kentucky.
Clint Bowyer
DraftKings - $8,600
Fantasy Feud - $115,000
Vegas Odds - 101/1
Sprint Cup Standings – 15th
Qualified - 30th
Bowyer has been pretty consistent lately recording four top 10's in his previous five races. In five races at Kentucky, he has recorded one top 5 finish. For the price, Bowyer makes a great cash game play this week on DraftKings and Fantasy Feud.
Ryan Blaney
DraftKings - $7,500
Fantasy Feud - $95,000
Vegas Odds - 101/1
Sprint Cup Standings – 47th
Qualified -
***Ryan Blaney is out of the race. DO NOT roster him!***
Practice #1 Update
It is currently raining in Kentucky which has led to the cancellation of Thursday Practice. There will be two practices on Friday starting at 10:30 AM ET followed by Coors Lite Pole Qualifying at 5:45 PM ET. I will be updating the article first thing Saturday morning with qualifying and practice updates and my final thoughts heading into the night race.
Qualifying Top 10
***Qualifying was cancelled and is based on Practice #1 speeds***
1. #42 Kyle Larson
2. #2 Brad Keselowski
3. #24 Jeff Gordon
4. #22 Joey Logano
5. #78 Martin Truex Jr.
6. #48 Jimmie Johnson
7. #1 Jamie McMurray
8. #11 Denny Hamlin
9. #18 Kyle Busch
10. #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
To view the complete qualifying order click HERE
Final Practice Top 10
1. #42 Kyle Larson
2. #2 Brad Keselowski
3. #22 Joey Logano
4. #11 Denny Hamlin
5. #41 Kurt Busch
6. #3 Austin Dillon
7. #18 Kyle Busch
8. #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
9. #48 Jimmie Johnson
10. #20 Matt Kenseth
To see the complete list of Final Practice results click HERE
Final Thoughts
Mother nature sure has been playing games with the NASCAR world lately. Practice #1 was rain shortened on Thursday, Practice #2 was also rain shortened Friday with Qualifying being cancelled as well. One thing we can take away leading up to the race is that Kyle Larson is fast. He was fastest in both practices and gets to start on the pole position. If you put him in your lineup you will need the win or at least a top 5 with a bunch of laps led. The same goes for Brad Keselowski as he will start in the 2nd position. I like the value in Kurt Busch who qualified 13th and was 5th quickest in Final Practice. I also like the value in Matt Kenseth starting 16th. He was 10th in Final Practice.
Ryan Blaney is out of the race so please don't roster him. In his place on the low end of the salaries I like Sam Hornish Jr. as a replacement. He has raced here in the past in the IndyCar series and has won the race twice. He is familiar with the bumps and should be able to secure a top 15 finish. Another low end value would be Danica Patrick. She qualified 23rd and was 13th in Final Practice. She should easily be able to lock in a top 20 finish barring she doesn't wreck! Good luck this week everyone. Make sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any lineup questions.
Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Quaker State 400? Chris is selling a DraftKings and a Fantasy Feud lineup plus a cheatsheet for $5. Just scroll to the bottom of the picks. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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