Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/1/15

Full disclaimer - this is a massive double slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.

 

A note before we begin
I know some of you masochists are going to be playing the early slate as well. To that end, I'll highlight a play at each position in the early slate for you to pick over. I don't have the time nor the inclination to do a full write-up for both slates, though, so you'll have to make due. Again, you can grab a free three day trial of our projection system if you'd like to see the full set of recommendations.

Pitchers

Early Slate
James Shields - FD 9200 DK 10100
Johnny Cueto - FD 10400 DK 10900
This should be no surprise. In fact, listing both is sort of a cop-out. So I'm going to do a quick comparison instead. Shields has a higher strike-out rate than Cueto, a better xFIP (3.13 to Cueto's 3.30), is pitching in a better park, and is significantly lower priced. Both are pitching against guys whom they should be heavily favored over. I'd guess they'll wind up with around the same point total, so I'll go ahead and save the $1,200 on FanDuel and go with big game James.

Late Slate
Jon Lester - FD 8600 DK 10300
The bad stuff first - it's been a pretty lousy month to play Jon Lester. But, the good stuff! Lester, in spite of a tough June, still has a wonderful 3.30 xFIP (the same as Cueto, listed above!), and is still nearly a strikeout per inning guy. If it weren't for his career worst BABIP allowed (.329) and his coinciding terrible LOB% (just 72%), he'd be having a pretty typical and good Jon Lester season. I like him in particular today for a couple of reasons. First, getting away from Wrigley should do nice things for his artificially inflated home run rate this season. Next, the Mets themselves. Even though they're about league average in terms of wOBA against lefties, they've struck out at the 6th highest rate in all of the majors. I think this is a great spot to grab some big upside with Lester.

Chris Heston - FD 7600 DK 6500
Chris Heston has been way more effective as a major leaguer than I would have predicted. So, it seems like it's one of those spots where it's worthwhile to re-evaluate expectations. His xFIP is a lovely 3.27, and his 54% groundball rate means he's going to stay in a lot of ball games just on the basis of reducing his opponent's slugging percentages. And then there's the Miami Marlins. They've paired a 21% K rate vs. righties with a despicable .288 wOBA - the 2nd worst in the entire league. Dan Haren isn't a cupcake match-up for Heston to scoop a win, but if you decide to go away from Lester, Heston could be an off-beat play that winds up with one of the highest point totals of the slate.

Our system is down on Carlos Carrasco. He'll be a big play today, though we won't be playing him. If you want to go "with the grain" at the cost of some expectation, you should consider him.

Also considered: John Lackey.

 

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Catchers

Early Slate
Stephen Vogt - FD 3600 DK 4300
The early slate catcher situation is a mess. It's impossible to know who is going to play in early slates at catcher in many cases, but the options we have here are pretty gross. If he plays, I like Blake Swihart against Mark Buehrle. After that? Oi. I'm going with Vogt. He's expensive - arguably overpriced - but he brings more upside to the table than any other catcher going. I'm also not in love with Chad Bettis. Some people are definitely going to play Russell Martin, but I'd prefer Vogt in a positive platoon spot over Russel in a bad platoon spot (vs. Rick Porcello) today.

Late Slate
Yasmani Grandal - FD 2900 DK 3700
I gave you Grandal as the play of the day going in to Monday's games, and he promptly went out and blasted a homer. As of this writing the Dodgers-D'backs game on Tuesday hasn't started, but whatever happens(ed) shouldn't influence your decision to play Yasmani. A lack of other good options should. Not the most ringing endorsement, I know. Grandal's power has all come against right handed pitching this season, and it's odd to take him against a lefty when his career OPS is more than .100 points better against righties. But we do need to consider the quality of the lefty in this case. Robbie Ray's ERA is greatly inflated by good luck, and the Dodgers should still have their way with him. I don't love Grandal necessarily, but he's still priced cheaply enough that I believe you have to consider him just for his upside.

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 3000 DK 3600
I made the executive decision to leave Lucroy off the list yesterday in spite of our projection system's profound protest... and he went out and went 4 for 5 with some counting stats besides. While Lucroy is better against left handed pitching, he's been reasonable against righties over the course of his career - and the real sweetener here is the particular righty he's facing. Aaron Harang, while his ERA is looking pretty good, has a terrible 4.48 xFIP this year. His super low groundball rate and Philly's generous confines could lead to another good day to be a Brewer, and Lucroy could definitely be in the mix.

Also considered: A ton of cheap options. If you can get a cheap platoon guy tomorrow, I'd recommend it. I'm not thrilled about either of the above options.
 

First base

Early Slate
Mike Napoli - FD 2700 DK 3800
If Napoli is in the starting lineup on Wednesday, I won't consider anyone else at the position in the early slate. For all of Napoli's struggles this season, he's got a ridiculous .286 ISO against lefties, and has plowed 5 homers in 64 PA. And Buehrle has blessedly come crashing down to Earth, paying the price for the league's 3rd worst K/9. Napoli everywhere, my friends.

Also considered: Joey Votto.

Late Slate
Chris Davis - FD 3300 DK 4200
Hopefully you're a subscriber to our system and you trust it more than my picks, because while Davis was one of the top ranked guys before his 2 homer game, I slyly hid him in the "also considered" category yesterday. Well, 2 home runs later, and I'm chasing him now! The case for Davis is actually the easiest it's been all season. The Nick Martinez bubble popped profoundly in his last start, and the reasons why are all the reason that Davis is such a great play. The slugging lefty has been one of the easiest guys to strike out in the majors since he came up, which would be a problem today except for the fact that Martinez owns the league's 8th worst K/9. Throw in a nice hitter's park, and this has all the makings of another potential monster.

Eric Hosmer - FD 2800 DK 4400
No one will mistake Hosmer for a huge upside play, but if you're looking for a high floor guy for your cash games today, I'd give him a gander. He's been about .113 OPS points better against right handed pitching this season, and the Royals should theoretically be able to have their way with the wild Vincent Velasquez in a fine hitter's park.

Consider: Jose Abreu.

 

Second base

Early Slate
Ben Zobrist - FD 3200 DK 4400
Just because Chad Bettis is another typically terrible Rockies pitcher. I've recommended Zobrist for 3 days in a row, and while it's been a mix of paying and not, the underlying reasons remain the same. He's got nearly an .800 OPS on the season, almost twice as many walks as strike outs, and is some horrid BABIP luck away from having a phenomenal fantasy year. The price is still reasonable, and I'm still a buyer.

Late Slate
Dee Gordon - FD 3000 DK 4800
One of the world's fastest men put his first homer in the seats on Tuesday, but we're not buying him for his power. We're going for the speed. Gordon's on pace for a 50+ steal season, and has been better in all respects against right handed pitching over the course of his career. While I do like Heston today, Gordon should be able to put some balls in play. And if he does? Havoc.

Howie Kendrick - FD 2800 DK 4400
While he hasn't shown it this season, Kendrick has been about .050 OPS points better against left handed pitching over the course of his career. And again, I'm just not scared of Robbie Ray. His 4+ xFIP and under-developed stuff just don't paint the picture of a guy who can deal with a line drive machine like Kendrick. I love him for safety and upside, though the upside will have to come via counting stats.

 

Shortstop

Early Slate
Xander Bogaerts - FD 2700 DK 3800
This looks like an easy one, from where I'm sitting. I won't consider playing any other shortstop in the early slate, and would appreciate if you didn't either. Unless we're in the same game. In which case, play whoevs. The 22 year old Bogaerts has walked almost as much as he's struck out vs. lefties this season, and has an .801 OPS against them. And that's all lefties! Not just scrap heap guys like Buehrle. Great play for safety and upside.

Late Slate
Ian Desmond - FD 2300 DK 3800
Desmond has been pretty terrible this season, but he's still only 29, and I'm not quite ready to pour dirt on him yet. He's a huge downside play on any given day, sure, but most of that comes from his strike-out problems, and Matthew Wisler just isn't a swing and miss talent (more on that later). Shortstop, as usual, is pretty bad. Desmond is my cheap play of the day, assuming he's in the lineup.

Also considered: A zillion other cheap guys, and Jean Segura. Segura being the highest upside play of the bunch.
 

Third base

Early Slate
Pablo Sandoval - FD 2500 DK 4100
Just because Buehrle is so useless. Sandoval is much better against righties, but with Buehrle having nothing left in whatever tank he had, I think this is an interesting spot to escape the position cheaply and spend up elsewhere.

In the opposite vein, our system doesn't mind you spending up on Josh Donaldson - even against his platoon split - against the generally bad Rick Porcello.

Late Slate
Adrian Beltre - FD 2800 DK 3900
The curious case of Beltre being horrible. His batted ball data is almost exactly the same as it was in his near .900 OPS 2011 campaign with these Rangers. The big culprit is a ridiculously unlucky BABIP. If that climbs .060-.080 points to his established levels, he's a beast. He posted a 1K OPS against lefties in 2011, and was even better than that in recent seasons. This is a fantastic spot to buy him low in all formats against the left handed Chen.

Mike Moustakas - FD 2800 DK 4200
Plain and simple - Moustakas has crushed right handed pitching this season. His .901 OPS against northpaws is downright elite, and while some of that is BABIP-fueled, even regressing his performance paints a picture of a guy who is performing to his prospect hype. While Velasquez does have big time swing and miss stuff, K's aren't Moustakas' problem, and I think he will be able to put some hard contact in when Velasquez misses in the zone.

 

Outfield

Early Slate
Jay Bruce - FD 3500 DK 4600
Marlon Byrd - FD 2700 DK 3900
Bruce can crush a righty. This much is known. Marlon Byrd is a one trick pony at this point in his career, but it's a pretty nifty trick! He can hit the ball a long way. While you'd love to take him on the better side of his platoon, Trevor May has generally been awful against both righties and lefties. His last start - a hilarious .1 IP effort - not withstanding, May is generally a bad pitcher whom you'd love to stack hitters against. So do it.

Josh Reddick - FD 3100 DK 4400
If Reddick could hit lefties, he'd be a much better baseball player. But if he could hit lefties, he wouldn't be such an insane value against crappy righties like Chad Bettis. Reddick's .929 OPS against right handers is legit, and he is one of the very highest points per dollar upside plays on the board today.

Also considered: Hanley Ramirez. Upside like you read about against Buehrle.

Late Slate
Bryce Harper - FD 5200 DK 5700
Brothers from all sorts of different mothers are going to find a way to get Harper in against Matt Wisler. The Braves righty has mustered just 2 strike outs in 12 innings pitched, and his batting practice stuff just isn't going to fly against one of the league's biggest power threats. It's pretty spendy, obviously, but it might be tough to put up a W if you fade him and he goes off.

Yasiel Puig - FD 3400 DK 4000
Alex Guerrero - FD 2200 DK 3100
Scott Van Slyke - FD 3100 DK 3900
And really any right handed bat in the Dodgers' lineup against Robbie Ray. Any of these guys can put a serious bruising on left handed pitching, and if they're in the lineup, make for a very high upside stack in the late slate tonight.

Adam Jones - FD 3200 DK 4900
Jones has actually been a reverse platoon guy over the course of his career, meaning that he hits right handed pitching better than he hits left handed pitching. I've given you the case against Martinez already - play Jones in any format, and feel happy and smart for having done so.
 

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