Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 6/29/15

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Pitchers

It is a TERRIBLE day to pick a starting pitcher. There's effectively no safe option today. Spreading out a bunch of decent upside guys might be your best cash game bet. You've been warned.

Nathan Karns - FD 6600 DK 7100
No one is going to mistake Nathan Karns for Pedro Martinez, but the newly turned 27 year old has a career xFIP below 4 and a K/9 over 8. He also has some admitted control issues. And! The Indians aren't an especially great match-up. They're about league average against right handed pitching. So why bother with Karns today? Well, as noted, it's a hell of a day to pick a starting pitcher. And this also should be a decent day to go win-hunting with Karns. He'll face Cody Anderson, who FanGraphs ranked as the 13th best prospect in the Indians system before the season began. In other words, he's a fringe dude who is probably a few years from being a useful major league starter. All in all, it's a decent spot to take a shot on Karns.

Clay Buchholz - FD 8600 DK 8000
The highest priced pitcher on FanDuel today, Buchholz is the only pitcher going with anything even resembling #1 stuff. And he's no true #1. Still, his 3.16 xFIP is excellent, and he's some bad BABIP luck from having a near 3 ERA this season. The thing holding this ranking down is the pesky Blue Jays. They're one of the very best hitting teams in the league, and this isn't going to be an easy park to pitch in. The upside for Buchholz here comes from the Blue Jays' reasonably high K rate (hovering near 20%) and the opposing pitcher - RA Dickey. Dickey's 4.80 xFIP is his worst since becoming a full time starter, and Buchholz should have a higher than usual chance to get a W.

Joe Blanton - FD 5500 DK 4800
Lol? For real, Joe Blanton. Our projection system kinda hates him, and for good reason - the big man hasn't been a relevant big leaguer in ages. Still, 24 Ks against 3 BBs in 26 IP (including 2 excellent starts), and a start against the Astros, who have an historically high K rate against right handed pitching this season (26%!)? I dunno - I could be crazy, but you could probably get every single good hitter and start Blanton as well. Just a thought!

Also considered: CJ Wilson.

An interesting punt could be CC Sabathia. Still has great K numbers, and the Angels are the owners of the 9th worst wOBA in the league against left handed pitching this year. Far from a sure thing, but on a day without much elite pitching, he's got as much upside as anybody. I'll avoid the red-hot Lance McCullers, simply because the Royals never strike out (15.9% K rate - the lowest in the league) and are a top ten team in terms of wOBA vs. RHP.
 

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Catchers

Yasmani Grandal - FD 2800 DK 4100
A little slump in the last week has Grandal looking very affordable, and it's looking like a fantastic spot to cash in. He'll be hitting in Arizona - a fantastic spot to swing the bat - and facing Allen Webster. The young D-Backs righty has walked more batters than he's struck out this season, and looks for all the world to be something less than a big leaguer. Grandal has an .898 OPS against righties this season, and has shown double digit fantasy point upside. I love him in all formats.

Stephen Vogt - FD 3600 DK 4300
While our projection system doesn't love Vogt on a points per dollar basis today, I still think he's the other catcher to consider after Grandal. While Grandal is clearly the best play in his price range, you might just have a bunch of cash left over after going cheap on pitching. If that's the case, you can make a strong case for playing Vogt. He's got the best slugging percentage (and OPS) of any catcher in the majors this season, and it doesn't look like a fluke. His ISO is in line with his best season in the minors. And tonight, the left handed monster will be facing young righty David Hale. While Hale's ERA is inflated by some bad Coors luck, he's still not nearly polished enough to scare a guy like Vogt. While Oakland isn't an ideal place to hit, I could still see Vogt getting a hold of one.

Also considered: Matt Wieters, Jonathan Lucroy.

 

First base

Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3000 DK 4800
How the mighty's price has fallen! I've been on vacation for the last week, so coming back to Gonzo posting a 3000 price on FanDuel has me scratching my head. What could have happened in the last 10 days that caused his price to drop 16-20%? *checks* He has been... something less than elite, but certainly not awful. He's still got a .398 wOBA against right handed pitching for the season, and has had some monster games along the way. And today, he'll be facing the aforementioned and woeful Allen Webster at Chase Field. Love him in all formats.

Joey Votto - FD 3600 DK 4800
Votto is back to doing his thing this season - posting a .905 OPS and a .936 OPS against right handed pitching. He's making super hard contact and spraying line drives, and generally annoying opposing pitching to no end. If there's one thing Votto struggles with, it's striking out. But tonight he'll face Mike Pelfrey, whose microscopic 4.32 K/9 is good for the league's third worst. Through the roof upside for Votto here, and another great play for all formats (especially if you have a few bucks left over from saving elsewhere).

David Ortiz - FD 2800 DK 4200
Ortiz's season line is nothing to boost his hall of fame candidacy, but the aging slugger is still getting it done against right handed pitching. His .914 OPS (and all 11 of his homers) against northpaws speaks to his upside, and he's as good a bet as anyone in baseball on any given day to go off for a huge game. He'll be up against RA Dickey, whose knuckle-ball just ain't knuckling the way it used to. Dickey's managed just 5 Ks in 12 IP against the Bosox in his last two starts. I like Ortiz as a cheap upside play in large, top-heavy tournaments.

 

Second base

Rougned Odor - FD 2600 DK 3300
Odor has been something of a running joke here at DFSR headquarters for the last calendar year. The reason? Our projection system always wants to list him as the best second base play on the board when he's facing right handed pitching. The problem has always been, of course, that Odor hasn't been playing. Well, recently, that's changed. And Odor's last week has our projection system shrugging its shoulders and looking at us with an "I told you so" expression normally seen on the faces of spouses and libertarians. With 2 steals and 2 homers in the last week, Odor is delivering on the balanced approach he showed signs of in the minors. Tonight he'll face Bud Norris, whose 6.70 ERA and 4.57 xFIP are the worst of his already forgettable career. Feel free to play Odor wherever, though he might be more of a cash game play.

Howie Kendrick - FD 2700 DK 3900
Our system wants you to stack Dodgers today. Can you tell? Kendrick has been a reliable source of a high points per dollar floor recently, but he's relatively lacking in upside due to his inability to hit homers and steal bases. I'd say he's the Dodger I'm least excited about today, except for the fact that second base is so bad today. From that perspective, I like him relative to his peers against the bad Allen Webster.

Ben Zobrist - FD 3300 DK 4600
Our projection system has been beating the Ben Zobrist drum all season, and if you kept a steady hand with him through his bad BABIP luck, you've been treated to 10 consecutive days of positive scores and two GPP winning games against the Rangers and Angels. Zobrist has the lowest K rate of his career, and has maintained his elite walk rate all the while. His OPS is creeping back up near .800, and he has had the worst BABIP luck of his career (.047 points off his career levels). Love him for a high floor against Hale today.

 

Shortstop

Jean Segura - FD 2900 DK 3900
On a short slate, Segura is what passes for a decent play today. While he has almost no power (and thus won't be able to take full advantage of a great ballpark), he has some stuff going for him today. The first is Sean O'Sullivan. My man has a 4.30 K/9, which would be among the league's worst if he qualified. Next, Segura does have 20+ steal speed, and he bats atop a Brewer's lineup that possesses some upside. On a day with relatively few options, I like Segura for safety and upside.

Asdrubal Cabrera - FD 2500 DK 3600
It's been a little resurgence for Cabrera recently, which our projection system had been forecasting for a while. With 10 hits in the last 5 games (including a homer!), he's looking more like the 15/10 guy that he had been before the lights seemed to have gone out this season. I know that I recommended Karns today, but it's not because he's the world's greatest or anything. If you don't play Karns, I think Cabrera is a reasonable play in any format just based on his super-cheap prices.

Erick Aybar - FD 2300 DK 3200
Just because he'll be batting behind a lot of right handers that should have plenty of success against Sabathia. I get it - playing Aybar is like kissing your sister. Still, looking at his last 10 games or so paints a picture of a guy who hasn't killed you on any given day and has actually provided some solid points per dollar upside as well. He could be a high floor play on a day without many of them.

Also considered: If you can afford him, our system likes Tulo on a points per dollar basis compared to other high dollar options today. Graveman is terrible, so this makes sense.

 

Third base

Pablo Sandoval - FD 2400 DK 4000
If you want a nice high-floor guy today, Sandoval might be your play. Now that's an odd thing to say about a guy with Sandoval's fairly lousy triple-slash line, but bear with me. Sandoval, in spite of not living up to his contract, still has an .869 OPS against right handed pitching this season. His 10% K rate is terrific against right handed pitching, and gives him a higher floor against a guy like Dickey who happens to not be able to strike anyone out. In a nice hitter's park, I like saving up on Sandoval if you want to spend up elsewhere.

Joey Gallo - FD 3000 DK 3300
Gallo's been completely useless against left handed pitching so far, but he's put up some incredible games against right handed pitching. His .960 OPS against right handed pitching might be a number he can sustain on the back of his legit 80 power. Norris has been leaving balls up in the zone for his whole career, except he has now lost the strike-out stuff that kept him in the bigs. Gallo's never really a great cash game play due to his huge K rate, but the upside here is as high as it gets for any player at any position, especially on a points per dollar basis.

David Freese - FD 2400 DK 3700
David Freese isn't an all-star or anything, but his career .837 OPS against left handed pitching is more than adequate for the near minimum prices you need to pay to play him. His .263 ISO against left handed pitching this season speaks to the kind of upside he can bring to the table. He's also facing CC Sabathia today, which is a right hander's dream. CC has allowed a .406 wOBA and .950 OPS against right handed hitting this year, making this a fantastic spot to grab the platoon heavy Freese.

 

Outfield

Joc Pederson - FD 3600 DK 4400
19 homers this season. 16 against right handed pitching. I've already given you the case against Allen Webster. If you want top tier upside at OF this season, Pederson is your home boy.

Josh Reddick - FD 2900 DK 4400
Reddick is the quintessential platoon guy. His .926 OPS against right handed pitching is double what he's managed against left handed pitching. That's sort of a big deal. What it means, though, is that his price is more than affordable for what he can do when he's facing a garbagey righty. That's the case tonight against David Hale. Reddick is interesting, too, because his sub 8% K rate against right handed pitching means he's a great play even in 50/50s and double-ups. I'll green light Reddick for any contest today.

George Springer - FD 3800 DK 4900
So, Springer is a pretty heavy platoon guy at this early stage in his career. He's been about .140 OPS points better against LHP in his young career. But he's still been plenty decent against right handed pitching, and his 30/30 upside is coming to fruition this season. It's a little bit risky given Blanton's good looking stuff this year, but our projection system likes Springer plenty against the 34 year old version of the big man.

Ryan Braun - FD 4500 DK 4800
Carlos Gomez - FD 4100 DK 4800
The Sean O'Sullivan sweepstakes! Both of these guys have their strike out issues, but given that O'Sullivan has some of the very worst stuff in the league, both of these see a tremendous jump in upside and safety. Throw in a terrific hitter's park, and you have a decent stack for any format.

Carlos Gonzalez - FD 3600 DK 4500
Gonzalez has been a huge disappointment this season, but he's been pretty good against RHP (.811 OPS) and tremendous in the month of June (.957 OPS). He might be fully out of his early season slump, but we can still get him at night quite "Cargo" prices. He'll also be up against Kendall Graveman, who has a sub-six K/9 over the course of his career, and was never much of a prospect in the first place.

Also considered: Brandon Moss, Yasiel Puig.

 

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