Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 6/28/15

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Pitchers

Madison Bumgarner - FD 11100 DK 10600
One thing's for sure so far this season: the Rockies stink against lefties. They rank 27th in the league in that split this season and that's not even adjusted for home park. I suspect doing that would make them the worst in the league in the lefty platoon. And they aren't playing at home today. Bumgarner's been his usual, super-efficient self this season striking out close to ten batters per nine while walking less that two in the same frame. His xFIP is in the low threes and this dude just basically does the same thing season in and season out. It's uncanny really. He's a big favorite against Kyle Kendrick today and makes one of the top cash game plays on this slate.

David Price - FD 10800 DK 11000
I'm very much assuming he's getting the start after the rain out yesterday, but if not we'll update the picks and projections leading into game time. Price, if he is starting, makes for a play on par with Bumgarner as the White Sox rank dead last in the league against lefties. They strike out almost 23% of the time and have a bottom of the order that makes little league team laugh. Chicago has some serious offensive deficiencies. Price isn't striking out as many batters this season which is somewhat of a concern. The xFIP is about a run higher than his ERA, but I think the matchup dictates a play here as the White Sox have really one batter you worry about facing lefty pitching.

Stephen Strasburg - FD 8400 DK 9300
Spec play for sure. Strasburg is a much maligned pitcher in the DFS community and I totally get why. Who among us hasn't been burned by a Stras blow up in the most lock of situations? He's submarined many a great team and I get why people hate him. But his peripherals this season have been pretty good and the xFIP is way lower than the ERA. He faces a garbage Philly squad and if there was a matchup for him to beat his price, this is the one. I don't think I'm risking it at all on DK as the price is too high, but FanDuel is right in the sweet spot for upside.

Justin Masterson - FD 6500 DK 4900
He's coming almost free on DK. I don't love him for anything else but his price there. It's about as low as you'll ever see a starting pitcher who isn't the equivalent to a dead body.

 

Just killing time until fantasy football season? Fantasy Pros has a pretty cool mock drafting software you can check out!

 

Catchers

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 2900 DK 3600
He faces a lefty today in Tommy Milone who's been well below average this season with a 4.69 xFIP and a strikeout rate less than six per nine. Lucroy continues to bat in the top four in the order depending on the day and has had success against lefties for his career. Over the last season he's put up a 115 wRC+ and .342 wOBA in that platoon. Nothing to write home about, though enough to write to you considering these prices.

Yasmani Grandal - FD 2900 DK 4100
Jose Urenp has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starting pitcher you'll ever see. He K's only 3.63 per nine and walks almost as many. We want to stack some Dodgers against this guy today. Grandal is much better against righty pitching and lives to take a walk with a sick 13% BB rate over the last two seasons. That's an elite number for just about anyone, especially a catcher. In a good spot to pick up some easy cash game points.

Consider Yan Gomes and Dioner Navarro

 

First base

Lucas Duda - FD 2900 DK 3600
Tough to know a lot about Josh Smith from just one major league start and though he wasn't successful, I'm not willing to label the guy a bust or anything. That being said, he only has a minor league record to pull from and that's not exactly indicative of major league performance. Duda's put up solid numbers this season with a mid .800's OPS and .195 ISO. I'd like to see a little more power from the guy to go with the decent walk rate, but at his prices we are willing to take a little ding on the long ball. His skill set makes him a buy, especially on DraftKings where he offers a lot of savings for the upside.

Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3000 DK 4900
Like I said about Jose Urena a second ago. Dude is real rough around the edges and all the Dodgers are in play. Many of their prices have come down in the short term, Gonzalez included. He's had a rough go of it with BABIP in June, leading to a decline in numbers across the board. He's of course not the next coming of Babe Ruth we saw in the early season, but he's better than these prices for sure. Still hitting in the middle of the order, and still capable of racking up points especially in pitching matchups like this one.

Consider Chris Davis

Second base

Howie Kendrick - FD 2700 DK 3900
Remember how I've been talking a lot about Jose Urena? Same thing applies with Kendrick. He's hit second in the order the last couple of days and that's a huge boon for the guy in per game point expectation. Basically we've talked a lot this season about how much batting order matters in terms of just points in the aggregate. Kendrick is a direct beneficiary of this kind of value movement. He's fine enough against righty pitching, solidly above average with a 118 wRC+ over the last two years. Getting a weak arm and will be part of some Dodger stacks for sure.

Brandon Phillips - FD 3000 DK 3500
Not really a good hitter by any means, but the Reds seem insistent on hitting him leadoff (at least for now). While that decision doesn't seem to make a lot of sense from an actual baseball standpoint, it can do wonders for his value. He's coming on the cheaper end of things, especially on DraftKings where I see him as one of the top cheap plays of the days as long as he's still hitting leadoff. He's been better against lefties for his career and faces a prospect (though unproven) in Steven Matz.

Ben Zobrist - FD 3400 DK 4400
Getting a little more expensive of late thanks to a very solid last couple of weeks. But I think we can still consider him against Jeremy Guthrie who, much like Jose Urena, abhors striking out opposing batters. Guthrie's xFIP is up over five and he's basically barely a major league pitcher at this point. Zobrist has been hitting third or fourth in the lineup and is still a solid cash game play for his profile.

 

Shortstop

Jose Reyes - FD 3700 DK 4600
Going to cost you but shortstop is always such an offensive abomination that when Reyes is coming in the middle tier against a weak arm then I think he plays in cash games. Chi-Chi Gonzalez is actually walking more batters than he's striking out this year and getting insanely lucky in BABIP. His xFIP is over five, a far cry from the 2.78 ERA you see. Reyes and the Blue Jays could be up for some runs today in a great hitter's park. You have to pay for him, but he has the highest projected number of any shortstop.

Wilmer Flores - FD 2200 DK 3200
Hitting in and among the middle of the order for the Mets which tells you a lot about that squad in general. But Flores is a fine enough shortstop punt play I suppose. He's been running bad from a BABIP perspective with a .239 mark and has decent enough power (10 home runs already this season). His numbers play well enough for the slot in the order and the pricing. We rarely want to spend much at shortstop so taking a cheap play with upside in a nice pitching matchup can get the job done.

Ian Desmond - FD 2400 DK 3900
Said this yesterday about Desmond and the same holds true going into this one:
I've said it a couple of tother times this week, and it bears repeating. Desmond is a risk/reward play who we want to target against low strikeout pitchers. Adam Morgan Kevin Correia is one such guy. A low K guy from the minors, the strikeout is Desmond's primary issue. He goes down on strikes a lot and rarely takes walks. He's a smidge better against lefties for his career, but it isn't a huge gap. Still coming near punt prices on FanDuel and cheap on DraftKings. If he can hit in the top six of the lineup, this is a clear play. It get's weirder if he's lower than that.

Consider Jung-Ho Kang and Asdrubal Cabrera

Third base

Josh Harrison - FD 3100 DK 3700
If he's hitting leadoff against the lefty Alex Wood then these are solid cash game prices on Harrison, especially his DK number. He's had a ton of success against lefty arms over the last couple of seasons with an .868 OPS And 138 wRC+. Some of it is buoyed by BABIP, but not enough to call him a run hot all-star or anything. Alex Wood is a decent enough pitcher I suppose, though he doesn't blow anyone away. If Harrison is at the top of the order then I think there's quite a bit of safety in his salaries.

Josh Donaldson - FD 4100 DK 4700
A bit expensive on this slate and better against lefties for sure. But Chi-Chi Gonzalez is just that bad and it isn't like Donaldson is a total dog against righty pitching. Our system accounts for the difference in his platoon splits and how the expectation changes. And it still likes him for these prices against Chi-Chi. The park helps as well and he's an above average bat against righties.

Yangervis Solarte - FD 2300 DK 2900
If you are really looking to punt at third base then Solarte could be the way to go. He isn't a good hitter, but the Padres bat him second and he's facing a below average arm in Chase Anderson. Petco Park doesn't do any power favors, but you don't need Yangervis to do a ton at these prices.

Consider Joey Gallo if he hit in the top six of the order

 

Outfield

Nelson Cruz - FD 3000 DK 4400
Mark Trumbo - FD 2400 DK 3500
Whenever these guys are facing lefty pitching I want to have a piece of them (not literally of course, that would be weird considering I don't know them). But since we are strictly speaking in baseball terms these are guys are just platoon nerds when it comes to lefties. Cruz is especially dominant with an 1.108 OPS over the last two seasons in that split with a stupid .462 wOBA to go with it. He just dominates lefties and embarasses them. I love him prices and feel like he'll be a staple in my lineups on this slate even with the ballpark. Trumbo's another extreme splits guy though not nearly as dominant as Cruz. But he's still rocked a mid .800's OPS in this platoon over the last couple of years with a 130wRC+. And that's with running a little bad in BABIP. Hector Santiago's xFIP is in the mid 4's this season and though he's been decent enough, I'm targeting these Mariners' bats on what they do to southpaws.

Joc Pederson - FD 3700 DK 4500
Andre Ethier - FD 2300 DK 3700
Remember all of the Jose Urena hate I was dishing out earlier? It applies to these guys as well. The Dodgers have all come down in price over the last month thanks to one of the lowest team BABIPs in the league over that stretch. It's caused some scoring issues that have effected many of their price tags. Luck doesn't explain it all away of course, but has something to do with the team coming cheap. And that's a great spot to correct when you get them against a garbage arm. I'm not saying to go all-in on the Dodgers today, but you're getting great prices on many of them. Joc and Andre included.

Consider Josh Reddick, Shin-Soo Choo and Brandon Moss

 

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