Chicago White Sox Jose Abreu connects for a two run double off Oakland Athletics' Pat Venditte in the fourth inning of a spring training baseball game Sunday, March 8, 2015, in Mesa, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
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Pitching is tough on this early slate. There are three great arms going, but they aren't in the best matchups as two of them face each other the the third has been hit or miss. Let's take a look.
Max Scherzer - FD 11900 DK 12600
Francisco Liriano - FD 9900 DK 10400
Look, if you read us a lot you know we don't just throw the most expensive plays up in the picks and call it a day. We take a more nuance'd (and dare I say, sexy - in that we are particularly good looking) approach to pitching. Scherzer and Liriano face each other today which obviously decreases the chances for the win on either side. But our system has both of them in a dead heat from a points per dollar point of view. The temptation will be to use Liriano as he frees up more money for some Coors' plays. But both stand to put up solid strikeout numbers. For Scherzer the Pirates are a middle of the road team against righties. He's striking out almost 11 batters per nine and really keeping the walks down. The Nats are horrible on D, so he gets dinged there, but he still stands to put up numbers today.
Meanwhile, Liriano is putting up equally gaudy strikeout numbers and finally this year not walking the ballpark (though he's still giving free passes). The Nats are above average against lefties but K at a 21% rate. The draw for Liriano is the discount you're getting on his K upside.
Jon Lester - FD 8900 DK 9000
He comes in slightly higher in the points per dollar category, but is risky because he has the "crush your soul blow up" potential running through his veins. Lester doesn't offer the K upside of the first two guys as he's putting down slightly less than a batter an inning. But the Twins are a middle of the pack team against lefties and the ballpark does Lester some favors. He is more a favorite for a win than the top two guys which is why I could see going his way on the slate. You are getting slightly more for your buck here because of the likelihood of the win, but you lose with the K's.
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Update: Lucroy and Chirinos both sitting. Michael McKenry seems way to go.
Jonathan Lucroy - FD 3200 DK 4300
Not as good a situation as you had last night with him considering the Rockies are rolling a righty on the mound and Bettis isn't a colossal disaster like most Colorado pitchers. But there's still Coors to consider and Lucroy hits at the top of the lineup. With a decent amount of solid arms going on this slate, paying for Lucroy in the slightly wrong side of his split is a fine endeavor. He's had success against righties and is slightly above average in that split for his career with a 103 wRC+. Not great, but the Mile High air makes up for a lot of that.
Robinson Chirinos - FD 2600 DK 3600
I think he'll get the start today against the lefty Rodon and you have to like this spot. He's tagging lefty pitching on the season with a 147 wRC+ which follows much of his career trend. Love the ballpark for power and Chirinos does provide salary relief as compared to Lucroy for somewhat of the same power expectation when considering the other factors.
Jose Abreu - FD 3600 DK 5200
Adam LaRoche - FD 2400 DK 3500
God I hate Nick Martinez. Not because he's a bad guy or anything (though he might be, don't know him personally) but because I am always waiting for him to self destruct because of the bad peripherals. It doesn't always happen and dude's luckboxed his way into some good games. But know this, he isn't good. The xFIP is closing in on 5.00 and he strikes out less that six batters per nine. That could spell trouble in U.S. Cellular and I like either of these guys for the power upside. I'm a big Laroche guy in these situations because he allows you to get money in on the pitcher as well as some other plays in Coors.
Consider Anthony Rizzo if you want to spend up somewhere besides Denver.
Tempted to just write "Skip" and move on from second base. It's a bloodbath on this slate and I'm having trouble figuring out even a somewhat viable option.
DJ LeMahieu - FD 3100 DK 4000
The really only case for DJ is he's playing in Coors, hitting second and so many other folks will play him on this slate. He's running super hot in BABIP this season so don't go completely gaga over the .800 OPS. The reality is much lower. But I totally get why you'd play him here. There really aren't many other viable options. My problem with it is you are paying a big premium on his skillset (or lack thereof).
Neil Walker - FD 2500 DK 2900
I get it that he's facing Scherzer and that looks very much like a donkey play. But who would you start at second on this slate? The reason I don't mind Walker is he's coming so very cheap and hits near the top of the order. I get that he's in a terrible matchup, but I'm also not a fan of spending up just to do it. Going up for say Zobrist.
Alexei Ramirez - FD 2200 DK 3500
Even though he's been dropped in the order, Alexei is still as good a play as any on this slate. He's facing one of the weaker pitchers and getting to hit a fantastic power park. The Cuban Missile's been running bad in the BABIP department with that number about 50 points below his career average. He still has some hints of speed and the batted ball profile points to him just getting very unlucky this season. He's coming at or near the minimums meaning you aren't risking much with the play.
Elvis Andrus - FD 2400 DK 3800
As light hitting as they come, but Elvis is significantly getter against lefties for his career. In fact, he's been downright average in that split with a .716 OPS. While that number won't knock your socks off just remember that shortstop stinks and you are looking for every opportunity to get even a hint of an edge without risking any significant dollars in the process. I don't see spending up for Segura unless he's hitting leadoff again, but I don't think he will against the righty.
Update: Both Aramis and Gallo out also. Consider Connor Gillaspie and Kris Bryant
Joey Gallo - FD 3300 DK 4000
He's an upside play on this slate because the matchup isn't perfect. Gallo is a strikeout fiend almost in a class all his own going down at an ungodly 37% clip so far this season. But it's tempting to take him in a great hitter's ballpark against a lefty that can get wild. This slate is tough with the hitters as so many guys are either overpriced or face a real tough opposing arm. Shoot some power expectation here with Gallo.
Aramis Ramirez - FD 2900 DK 4100
Had him as a top play last night and he obliged by going yard in the first. Willing to roll it back but am much less excited with him facing the righty Bettis. But Aramis is still going in Coors and has had some success on this side of his split for his career. He owns a 114 wRC+ and .825 OPS are perfectly acceptable and he's priced a bit lower because the BABIP has been a real issue this season.
Gerardo Parra - FD 2600 DK 4000
Putting him first here, not because I think he's in line for the most total points, but because on FanDuel he's a ridiculous bargain. If the Brewers' lineup holds then you are getting a two hitting facing the better side of his platoon in Coors Field for under $3K. I suspect he's the highest owned outfielder on this slate because getting that kind of salary in allows you some chance to spend up for a big pitcher without taking too big a hit offensively. Parra's no great shakes as a hitter, but the mid .700's OPS is respectable enough and he'll occassionally hit one out.
Adam Eaton - FD 2600 DK 3800
Melky Cabrera - FD 2200 DK 3700
These guys, like Parra above, represent a way to get cheap money in with some decent expectation. Eaton's hitting leadoff and Melky moved back to the two hole for the Whites Sox. They're facing Nick Martinez so each guy's strikeout expectation diminishes some. Neither hits for a great deal of power, but Melky is tough to strikeout and Eaton's coming somewhat underpriced because of BABIP issues. These guys are a bit more of cash game plays because their skillsets mean a lot needs to go right for them to bust it out of the scoring box. But I love their lineup slots for the price.
Kole Calhoun - FD 2600 DK 4100
He's coming very cheap out of the two hole in the lineup. Calhoun faces Jesse Hahn, a pitcher who's seen the K rate plummet this season. The Angels shook the order last night, and moved Calhoun back up some. It makes a difference and I like matchups for him in which the strikeout expectation diminishes some. He's not jacking home runs all over the place as the ISO's dipped some this season. But he still makes an acceptable cheap play on a slate where you really need it.
Consider Ryan Braun and Dexter Fowler
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Any concern that the WAS/PIT game gets postponed? The weather seems to be up and down and as the day goes on, looks even worse. Any help would be appreciated as I would like to get Max in my lineup. Thank you for the great work!