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Chambers Bay Golf Club - University Place, WA
Par 70 - Rd. 1/3 - 7769 Yards Rd. 2/4 - 7792 Yards
The Fedex St. Jude Classic wrapped up yesterday with Fabian Gomez taking home the giant cheque for $1.08 Million. He went into the final round tied with Greg Owen but played very smart and consistent throughout Sunday to win by four. As for my picks, they didn't fair as well as Fabian. The week started off poorly when, after his first 9 holes, Dustin Johnson withdrew. Ended up hitting 50% of the picks. The cash game lineup I proved in the cheatsheet scored 419 points and easily cashed in all 50/50's and head to heads I played. Overall it was another profitable weekend but we are still looking for that big payday! Good week to hit that big payday as the U.S. Open has finally arrived.
This year Chambers Bay Golf Club will host the 115th U.S. Open Championship. This years U.S. Open is going to be like no other in the past. The course sets up more like a British Open with its wide rolling fairways, dunes throughout, thick fescue roughs, and large undulating greens. With the course setup like a links course it can play dramatically tougher if the wind should pick up. The course was designed by Robert Trent Jones Jr and is situated in an old gravel and sand mine. The course opened in 2007 and within 8 months was awarded the 2010 U.S. Amateur and the 2015 U.S. Open. Unlike almost any other Strokes Play Event on tour this U.S. Open will have two holes that alternate par values and yardages throughout the tournament. Hole 1 will be a Par 4(496 yards) on Days 1 & 3 and a Par 5(598 yards) on Days 2 & 4. Hole 18 will be a Par 5(604 yards) on Days 1 & 3 and a Par 4(525 yards) on Days 2 & 4.
When looking at stats to target for this tournament there are a few I feel are more important than others. First of all, I feel driving distance will be a good start when looking for a core of players to roster this week. The course is playing over 7700 yards and there are many holes where length can give you a huge advantage when approaching the green. Want to see for yourself? Check out this VIDEO. There is a drone flyover preview of every hole on the course. With the wind, heavy rough, and sand present all over the course, I feel scrambling will be a key stat as Par will be a great score on many of these holes and I also feel that Sand Save % will be very important as well. When looking at the greens and hearing what a few of the players have been saying, I feel there will be a lot of long putts that will require lag to get them close so players have a shot at a 5 or 6 foot par. I will be looking at not only Strokes gained: Putting but also 3 Putt Avoidance. As always, I will be looking at the Strokes Gained: Tee to Green stat. A lot of golf analysts have been talking about the correlation between Chambers Bay and PGA Championship locations at Whistling Straits(2010) and Kiawah Island(2012). I have added these results to my cheatsheet and will look closely to find values within the results. Like most tough, challenging major championships, the cream usually rises to the top so look for the Tour's best golfers to frequent the leaderboard this weekend. Here is the list of stats that will be used in my cheatsheet this week:
Tier 1 for the U.S. Open only has 8 guys over $10,000. All of them are good picks for different reasons in my eyes but for this week's Millionaire Maker I will narrow it down to 3 strong picks to win it all.
Rory Mcilroy - $13,000 (Vegas Odds – 8/1)
First up is the favorite to win this week. He seems to have everything going at the moment. In his last 5 stroke play events he has a Win, 8th, 4th, 11th, and 9th. Oh ya and he won the Match Play Championship as well. He won the U.S. Open in 2011 but hasn't finished inside the top 20 since. When looking at the correlation courses Rory finished 3rd at Whistling Straits(2010 PGA Championship) and 1st at Kiawah Island(2012 PGA Championship). He is not the best wind player on tour but he also has an Open Championship which is known for its windy conditions. All in all I don't think the wind will wreak havoc this week which should only boost Rory's chances of winning.
Justin Rose - $11,500 (Vegas Odds – 19/1)
When deciding between Rose, Spieth, & DJ for my next pick I see it this way. Spieth and his caddy have ties to the course and I feel he will be highest owned of the 3. Dustin, I feel, will be lowest owned of the 3 due to his withdraw due to "illness" last week. That leaves Justin Rose right in the middle. He is also a former U.S. Open Champ like Mcilroy looking for #2. Rose also has some correlation course record as he finished 3rd at Kiawah Island(2012 PGA Championship). In his last 5 stroke play tournaments he has a win, 2 runner ups, a 39th and a Missed Cut. Putting and Scrambling are his worst stats but the thing that stood out to me is his preparation. In 2013 when he won his first U.S. Open he spent the full week prior at Merion Golf Club preparing himself for the test. He has done the same this year. Look for a strong finish.
Phil Mickelson - $10,200 (Vegas Odds – 15/1)
Will Phil complete the career grand slam? I think he will have a really good chance this year at Chambers Bay. He is in good form with 3 Top 5 finishes in his last 5 tournaments including a 3rd at the St. Jude Classic in a tune up effort for this week. In his last 4 U.S. Open attempts he hasn't missed a cut and has a 2nd and a 4th place finish. He is another golfer that played the two correlation courses well with a 12th place finish at Whistling Straits in 2010 and a 36th place finish at Kiawah Island in 2012. His stats in 2015 suggest he should do well here as well. Get Phil in your lineups.
Also consider Henrik Stenson & Rickie Fowler as lower owned options in Tier 1
With such soft pricing this week we see plenty of big names in Tier 2 as well. I believe there is 3 golfers within this group who are fantastic values and can reach the upside of the Tier 1 guys.
Jason Day - $9900 (Vegas Odds – 23/1)
He falls into the second Tier in salary this week but he is my favorite pick when it comes to value. Day covers all the stat categories and is elite in Driving Distance, Scrambling, & Sand Save % which I weigh heavily this week. He has a good U.S. Open track record as well. He has played in 4 over the past 5 years and has 2 runner ups, a 4th and a 59th. He also played Whistling Straights in 2010 for the PGA Championship and finished 10th. He has missed his last 2 cuts which hopefully will push the ownership % down a bit but either way he is a good play.
Bubba Watson - $9400 (Vegas Odds – 29/1)
At first glance you might think Bubba isn't a great pick. He has missed 2 of his last 3 U.S. Open cuts and his best finish in last 5 years was 32nd. His last 2 stroke play events have also resulted in a 42nd and 38th. Take those blinders off and look deeper and you will see where the value lies. Before his last 2 disappointing finishes he went 3rd, 14th, 2nd. He finished 2nd at Whistling Straits(2010 PGA Championship) and 11th at Kiawah Island(2012 PGA Championship). Bubba is 8th in 2015 in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 4th in Driving Distance, & 13th in Scrambling. He is average out of the sand and a great putter. He is just too good for the price.
Patrick Reed - $8500 (Vegas Odds – 34/1)
This really feels like a course that will suit Reed. He is one of the few with experience here as he and Spieth both played here in the 2010 US Amateur. Reed made it to the Match Ply portion of the Championship before losing out. In the stroke play portion he shot 68-77. He commented last week that he has fond memories of the course and enjoyed playing it. Reed has made 4 of his last 5 cuts with finishes ranging from 23rd to 58th. He is DUE! He is average in Driving Distance but elite in the other 5 categories I am looking at this week. With his depressed price I can see Reed being my top owned player.
Brooks Koepka - $7800 (Vegas Odds – 51/1)
First up in Tier 3 is Koepka. He came close to another win last week but ended up finishing 3rd. He has made 4 of his last 5 cuts with 2 Top 20's, one being that 3rd place finish. He finished 4th at the U.S. Open last year and if he can stay away from trouble areas this week he should have another shot inside the Top 10 this year.
Ryan Moore - $7500 (Vegas Odds – 67/1)
I probably won't have any exposure to Moore in the Millionaire Maker this week but in Cash Games he will be a lock for me. He doesn't drive the ball as far as most but is a great scrambler and fantastic putter. This years U.S. Open is like a home game for Moore who grew up in the area. Moore has made 4 of his last 5 cuts with 2 Top 20's mixed in.
Kevin Na - $7100 (Vegas Odds – 101/1)
He is becoming the face of consistency on the tour. he has made each of his last 5 cuts, all being Top 20 finishes with 2 Top 10's. You wouldn't think he would compete on courses with longer distances but he continues to do so. It helps that he is an elite scrambler and sand player. At his salary you can fit alot of top talent in your lineups.
Brendon Todd - $6900 (Vegas Odds – 126/1)
Much like Na, Todd is a short hitter but elite in Scrambling and Sand Saves. Todd is also a great putter and average at 3 putt avoidance. He has made 4 of his last 5 cuts with 2 Top 20's and a Top 10 finish. He makes a nice play at this price.
Alex Noren - $6600 (Vegas Odds – 151/1)
He has only played one event in the US this year and was a 56th at the WGC Cadillac Championship. He hails from Sweden and plays on the European Tour. He won the Nordea Masters last week with a score of -12 and finished 8th at the BMW PGA Championship 2 weeks prior. He has played in the U.S. Open twice before and missed the cut in 2012 and finished T51 in 2011. He is a longer hitter who hits greens, putts well and is 60% + from the sand. He is a nice low end value this week and should be passed over by many. His European Tour stats are below
**Warning - Golfers below $5900 are not to be trusted. GPP stars and scrubs only!**
Anirban Lahiri - $5800 (Vegas Odds – 401/1 to win 67/1 for Top 5)
It was very tough deciding who to take in the bottom tier of hell. There is a very low % of these guys who will even make the cut but I think Lahiri will be one of them. He has been on quite a roll in the past year winning 2 European Tour events as well as 2 Asia Tour events. He gets exemption into the U.S. Open as he is inside the Top 50 players in the world. He has made 3 of his last 5 cuts on the PGA Tour so he should have a nice chance to get a Top 50 finish.
Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the FedEx St. Jude Classic? Chris is selling his lineups plus a cheatsheet for $5. Just click the link below. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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View Comments
This is a great breakdown. I totally agree on Koepka.
I've been playing really well the last few weeks, so I compiled my advice/picks as well. I play "Select or Neglect?" with all the big names in the $10,000-$13,000 range:
http://www.michaelrharrison.com/draftkings/