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So, it's a big two slate day, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays with an emphasis on the late slate that more people are likely to play. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.
Early Slate
Scott Kazmir - FD 9000 DK 9400
Kazmir has been pretty lucky this year. His ERA is about a run better than his xFIP, his BABIP is down, and his K rate is up. But here's a little window into our projection system - it's taking Kazmir's pre-season projections as or more seriously than it has his YTD performance. The truth is, Kazmir is still a strike out per inning guy, and he's got upside for miles against the Padres tonight. The Dads have struck out at the 5th highest clip in the majors against left handed pitching this season, and Petco is an historically great place to depress scoring. Andrew Cashner might not seem like the greatest opponent, but he's been bad for a couple of starts in a row, and I think Kaz is more likely than usual to snag a win here.
Also considered: Michael Wacha.
Late Slate
Trevor Bauer - FD 8400 DK 7100
Since the Cubs/Indians game got rained out yesterday, Bauer's writeup still stands. Here you go!
In Bauer you're taking a serious step back in terms of safety, but you're also saving $1,200 worth of salary to apply to a stronger set of hitters to work with. Bauer showed his inherent risk in his last start, getting chased only and leaving fantasy owners hanging. But in the 5 starts before that? He was elite. He averaged 15 fantasy points per start, touching double digit strike outs in 2 of those games. On Monday, he'll have his highest upside matchup of the season - the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs taking a solid shot at going wire to wire with the league's worst K rate of the millenium against right handed pitching (a staggering 25.4%). They're in the bottom half of the league in wOBA as well. The fly in Bauer's ointment is Jake Arrieta - he's been elite in his own right this season, and a win might be tricky. But you're grabbing Bauer primarily for upside, here, so I say shoot for the moon.
Jose Quintana - FD 7700 DK 8500
The off-board special! Chances are good I'll recommend some Pittsburgh righty against Quintana, but I actually like him quite a bit as a cheaper option that few will play. The reasons are straightforward. While he's taken a little step back this year, the 26 year old southpaw is still a sub 4 xFIP guy, and he can still put up a huge game every once in a while. But the big reason is his opponent. The Pirates have combined the league's 2nd highest K rate with the league's 4th lowest wOBA against left handed pitching. They're a true lefty's dream. Quintana will also face Charlie Morton, who has only struck out 12 batters in 26 innings this season. I could see Quintana being atop tournament winning lineups.
Also considered: Our projection system actually doesn't mind Matt Harvey if you want to go that route. He's facing a lousy pitcher. But I might be a little too spooked by the Blue Jay's huge bats to partake here.
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Early Slate
Buster Posey - FD 3700 DK 4100
In the early slate today, I'm simply playing Posey. I'll be able to afford him, and taking him against a middling lefty like Happ is a high floor, high upside situation. Posey's got a ridiculous .954 OPS against southpaws over the course of his still-young career, which is just not a number you find for a catcher with any frequency. Not a whole lot else to say, here.
For upside, I'll look at Evan Gattis. He's got power to spare against left handed pitching, and novice Chris Rusin has to have him licking his chops.
Late Slate
Yasmani Grandal - FD 2900 DK 3800
Grandal has a .895 OPS against right handed pitching this season, which is downright excellent for a catcher. In this game, he'll take his plus power into a fine hitter's park in Texas, and square off against a young righty who has walked more batters than he's struck out this season, and walked a guy every other inning. Chi-Chi Gonzalez's ERA is one of the true lottery-style miracles of the young season, and I think Grandal puts a good bruising on him.
Travis d'Arnaud - FD 3200 DK 4600
D'Arnaud has actually been a reverse platoon split guy over the course of his major league plate appearances - he's about .60 OPS points better against right handed pitching. And in this one, he'll face a right hander who hasn't topped 6 Ks per 9 innings since high A ball. Copeland has generated decent ground balls, perhaps limiting D'Arnaud's upside, but I still think he's very affordably priced in a game where he should get a lot of opportunity to make hard contact.
Also considered: Jonathan Lucroy.
Early Slate
Chris Carter - FD 3200 DK 4400
I could give you David Ortiz here, but our projection system actually favors Chris Carter today. And that would be the fault of one Chris Rusin. Rusin hasn't topped 6 Ks per 9 innings since 2012, and his total lack of strike-out stuff nullifies Carter's major weakness - the swing and miss. Carter's 30%+ K rate is a true embarrassment, but his .232 career ISO is a truly top tier number. More opportunities to make contact means more potential for long-balls, and Carter has as much upside as any player on the board today.
Also considered: David Ortiz.
Late Slate
Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3400 DK 4500
Fair warning - there are a lot of overlapping recommendations tonight since everyone's playing the same opponents in the same parks, and a few teams have trotted out bad pitchers for consecutive nights. The Rangers are one such team. I gave you Chi-Chi's credentials earlier, so I'll focus on Adrian's instead. The elder Gonzalez has a sparkling .986 OPS against right handed pitching this season, and Texas is a much better place to hit than his home park. Big upside, and a top-tier floor to go with it. And his recent struggles have him cheap enough to make him a great points per dollar play.
Chris Davis - FD 3300 DK 4500
Davis is a left handed version of Carter, listed above. And, like Carter, Davis is hitting against Jerome Williams, who is more punch-line than pitcher. Davis is way better against right handed pitching, and about .080 OPS points better hitting in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Strictly an upside play, but this is a serious upside play.
Also considered: Lucas Duda, and Anthony Rizzo if you go against Bauer.
Early Slate
Jose Altuve - FD 3400 DK 4600
Yup, it's Astros stack day. But which Astro will you decide not to play? For your sake, I hope it's not Altuve. At a position with mostly lousy hitters with zero upside, Altuve stands like the guy in whatever movie that was who screams "YOU. SHALL. NOT. PASS!" Forgetting Sarah Marshall. That's the one. Back to the hard-core analysis. Altuve has blasted left handed pitching for an .871 OPS this season, and has stolen 7 of his 17 bases against lefties in just 90 plate appearances. The triple-slash for Altuve this season is less than inspiring, but he's running about .022 BABIP points off his career levels. The turn-around starts here, and I won't consider playing anyone else while Altuve's at these prices against lefties like Rusin.
If you simply can't afford him, our projection system thinks the Robinson Cano price is a crime.
Late Slate
Dee Gordon - FD 3100 DK 4600
In the late slate today, the upside conversation at second base starts and stops with Dee Gordon. His 22 steals in 276 PAs are top notch in today's game, and unlike a lot of speed demons, Gordon's got serious on-base chops to go with his wheels. His .390 OBP against right handed pitching this season is simply phenomenal, and a pitch-to-contact guy like Nathan Eovaldi (6.40 K/9) is a fine spot for Gordon to stretch his wings. Frankly, with his speed and BABIP skills, I think Gordon is a great play for safety and upside alike.
Brandon Phillips - FD 3000 DK 4200
Brandon Phillips' upside is nudging higher than it was last year. He's on pace for more homers, and he's already stolen more bases (8) than he has since 2012, and his OBP is as high as it's been since 2011. Some of that is BABIP driven for sure, but some is just being healthier. And this is a nice spot to grab him. Phillips has been about .050 OPS points better against left handed pitching over the course of his career, and Kyle Ryan would have the very lowest K/9 in the majors if his career MLB K/9 qualified for this season's "leaderboard." All in all, Phillips makes a fine contrarian play if the field goes with Dee Gordon.
Also considered: Chase Utley.
Early Slate
Carlos Correa - FD 3200 DK 4300
Yup, Astros stack day. The electric Carlos Correa, at the tender age of 20, hit 2 home runs in his first 16 major league plate appearances. Now, this over-represents what his true power potential is, but it's just about the best streak of any short-stop in the majors this season, which tells you all you need to know about how terrible the position is. I've described Chris Rusin already, but as a reminder, he's exactly the kind of pitcher that Correa had so much success against in the minors. Correa is the highest points per dollar upside play at the position today, even if you can never call a player his age "safe."
Also considered: Brad Miller.
Late Slate
Erick Aybar - FD 2400 DK 3500
There's not a lot to love about Aybar's season long line this season, so this is a straight opportunity play. The guy bats lead off in front of a lot of great hitters. It makes him a good candidate to escape the position cheaply whenever he and the Angels have a non-terrible match-up, and that's certainly the case against Hellickson, a below league-average pitcher without strikeout stuff. Could be a decent counting stat game for Aybar, here.
Jimmy Rollins - FD 2200 DK 3900
You've got to hate the fact that Rollins is batting 8th, but the price more than makes up for it. I also love that he tried a steal out of the 8 hole last night. Rollins has been the victim of insanely terrible luck this season - his .214 BABIP is .070 points off his career levels. He also has rather odd upside for the position as well - his 7 homers and 6 steals are both top 6 at the position, and you're paying bare minimum prices. I've given you Gonzalez's story already - this is a fine spot for J-Roll.
Also considered: Jean Segura.
Early Slate
Matt Carpenter - FD 3600 DK 4400
Carpenter has a fantastic .959 OPS against right handed pitching this season, and has an .080 OPS edge against right handed pitching over the course of his career. He also has one of the very best match-ups on the board today - one Kyle Gibson. While Gibson's high ground ball rate make him a guy who doesn't surrender a lot of home runs, he maintains an xFIP north of four because of his awful career K/BB rate. 5.34 K/9 along with 3 BB/9 just isn't a major league set of peripherals. I love Carpenter here, if you can afford him.
Brock Holt - FD 2700 DK 3100
Brock Holt has been something of a revelation this season. His fantastic on base skills (33 Ks against 20 BBs - not bad!) have translated into a player with a very solid floor at a very attractive price. He'll not be a high upside play, since he has basically no power and no speed, but I think you can slide him in against a floundering Teheran in a positive platoon spot and feel pretty good about it.
Late Slate
Mike Moustakas - FD 2400 DK 3900
Our projection system gave you Moustakas last night as a high floor play, and he's gone out and lived up to exactly that projection. As of this writing he's got a hit, a walk, an RBI, and a run scored. Moustakas has an .850 OPS against right handed pitching this season, and batting second in a lineup full of high contact guys is going to make him a ridiculously high floor play at these prices on a night to night basis. I'll take him against the flailing Matt Garza in a heart beat.
Joey Gallo - FD 3200 DK 3800
Gallo's been a system favorite recently, and he's been hitting bomb after bomb. In the interest of full disclosure, it actually likes him less tonight than it has in other starts recently. That's because he's faced some truly awful pitching, and in this game that's not entirely the case. But it's not like Chase Anderson should scare him, either. His 49 Ks in 72 IP this season mean he won't be able to take advantage of the gaping holes in Gallo's incredible power the way some more advanced pitchers might. Gallo's career .300+ ISO across all levels should tell you all you need to know about his truly elite of the elite upside.
A million cheap guys: Even more so than the other positions, there are a dozen cheap guys you could play for 2200-2500 on FanDuel who are great points per dollar values. I can't write them all up here. Grab a free three day trial of our projection system if you want to check em out.
Early Slate
George Springer - FD 3600 DK 4900
Springer remains very affordably priced for a guy that is a 20/30 threat, and his raw talent can translate to enormous upside against Chris Rusin, whose troubles I've outlined above.
Carlos Gonzalez - FD 3400 DK 4300
It's awk to take Rockies on the road, but Minute Maid isn't as big a step down from Coors as some places are. Gonzalez was simply awful in April and May, but in the first two weeks of June he's put together a .926 OPS and has pulled his season long line against righties up near the .800 mark. Velasquez has flashed electric upside in his time in the minors, but the guy through pitches in rookie ball last season, and looked a little overmatched in his first start in the bigs. I think Cargo could teach him a lesson about what's it like up here.
Justin Upton - FD 3700 DK 4400
I spoke Kazmir's praises earlier, but if you decide not to play him, Upton makes for an interesting guy to slide in. It's easy to forget that the Padres slugger is just 27 years old, and he's managed a .914 OPS against lefties over the course of his still young career. His 15% walk rate and .232 ISO against southpaws are through the roof, and he makes a sneaky upside play, even in Petco.
Also considered: Jason Heyward, Matt Kemp, Nelson Cruz, Cameron Maybin.
Late Slate
Joc Pederson - FD 3800 DK 4600
Alex Guerrero - FD 2500 DK 3400
Wrote up Pederson last night, and I've already explained why Chi-Chi Gonzalez is a better match-up today than Gallardo was last night. Here's why I wrote last night, which holds up tonight as well.
Scouts were concerned that Pederson's raw power wouldn't translate to in-game power, but 200 PAs in, he's got 17 homers. And he put in a 30/30 season last year. We could just be looking at a super-star in the making. Now, the Ks are a concern, of course, but Gallardo isn't really a big strikeout guy at this point in his career. Lots of upside here, from where I'm sitting.
As for Guerrero, he's a huge upside guy with a decent downside to go with him, but if you're stacking Dodgers, I think he's a fine play.
Andrew McCutchen - FD 4500 DK 4800
I gave you Quintana as an interesting punt play, but that doesn't mean I don't have eyes for Andrew McCutchen. Yes, you have to pay a fortune to play him - but he might very well be worth it. While he hasn't shown it this year, his .977 career OPS against left handed pitching is dynamite, and any conversation surrounding pure OF upside today should start with Cutch. It might not be easy to afford him, but if you can, our projection system thinks you might thank yourself. The only ding here is that the rest of his teammates suck, so he's more of a stand-alone play than anything else.
Michael Brantley - FD 3500 DK 4800
Brandon Moss - FD 3600 DK 4500
While Brantley doesn't cut the profile of a classic high upside outfielder, but anyone who can put up a 20/20 season can put up a big game in a bunch of different ways. Brantley's also got an excellent floor - he's walked nearly twice as many times as he's struck out this season. This minimizes Arrieta's greatest strength, which is a high strike out rate. Brantley should be able to put a lot of balls in play here, and if he does, it could mean a nice power/speed game in a good hitter's park in Wrigley. Moss is the guy you grab if you just want home-run upside. He is better against right handed pitchers as well, though his floor involves a lot of head-shaking and walking back to the dugout. An interesting pair to take a stab on, though.
Curtis Granderson - FD 3100 DK 4100
The Grandy Man? The Grandy Man. After a dismal April, Granderson has been more than decent since. His .835 OPS so far in June and his overall .808 OPS against right handed pitching this season tells a tale of a guy who can get it done in the right match-up. Granderson has holes in his swing that you could drive my Toyota Sienna (yes, I'm a baller) through - but Scott Copeland isn't a guy who can take advantage of them. Low floor here, but a very nice ceiling from where I'm sitting.
Adam Jones - FD 3500 DK 4900
Jones has been a reverse platoon guy over the course of his career, which means that he's been better against like-handed pitchers than he has against lefties. Jerome Williams is just awful. I like Jones as a stand-alone, or as part of a stack.
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View Comments
Thanks for the consistently great picks guys, and for always having them up the night before. Tomorrow's slate is going to be tricky; it seems like a lot of the best pitchers are going against each other, or have bad matchups. Good luck with your picks!