Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 6/11/15

Full disclaimer - this is a pretty set of slates, but there are two of them, and I won't be doing full intensive writeups for each. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.

Pitchers

Early Slate
Andrew Cashner - FD 7900 DK 8500
Oy, the early slate is just less than ideal if you want to try and find a good pitcher with a good match-up. Hell, it's not easy to find either. Cashner, however, meets one of those criterion. With his peripherals, he's amassed a very respectable 3.38 xFIP, which trails his ERA by 7/10 of a point. He's still a little better than a K per inning guy, and the walks are relatively under control. The only thing that makes him less than a home run play here is that the Braves are a very low upside match-up. They have the 3rd best strike-out rate vs. right handers in the league, and are pretty much middle of the pack in terms of wOBA. Cashner gets bonus points in my book because Teheran has been so horrible, though, so he might be in a good spot for a win here.

Late Slate
Just so we're on the same page - I may just pass on this slate altogether. The pitching is that damned bad. But, there are a couple of guys our projection system "likes," so I guess I'll pass them along.

Garrett Richards - FD 8600 DK 8900
Richards is what passes as a double up in the late slate. So, you've been warned. The word out of Angels' camp is that Richards isn't feeling the effects of injury, but his decreased K rate and increase BB rate has me wondering. What I like here, though, is the match-up. The Rays have the 6th worst wOBA against right handed pitching in the league, it's a great park to pitch in, and Alex Colome has had plenty of his own struggles. I like Richards as a favorite for the win, and while I don't really feel great about it, I'm not sure you've got tons of other great options here.

Tsuyoshi Wada - FD 6300 DK 6800
I think our system liked Wada the last time he pitched, and that was one of the epic fail/guaranteed loss plays of the season, so I understand if your enthusiasm is tempered. Still, there's some stuff to like here, I guess. First is Michael Lorenzen. With 23 Ks and 23 BBs in 38 innings, the guy isn't a major league caliber pitcher. Wada himself has better than a K per inning and nearly a 3:1 K:BB ratio, which is passable. The bugger here is that the Reds have kinda crushed left handed pitching this year - they're fifth best in the majors in terms of wOBA. Again - I kinda hate every single pitcher, but what Wada does allow you to do is potentially steal a cheap win and invest up in some hitting on a day that features lots of super terrible pitching.

Also considered: Matt Garza.

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Catchers

Early Slate
Yan Gomes - FD 2500 DK 3500
The nearly minimum priced 27 year old catcher has an .853 OPS against left handed pitching over the course of his career, and he'll face a pitch-to-contact lefty in JA Happ that should give him some chance to tap into his max-effort, high BABIP, high SLG approach.

Also considered: Stephen Vogt.

Late Slate
Buster Posey - FD 3700 DK 4100
The 28 year old Posey has tortured left handed pitching since he came up, putting together a .328/.388/.568 triple-slash line. That's great for any position, and hall-of-fame levels for a catcher. Yes, you do need to pay up for him a bit, but I'm happy to take him against Jon Niese - a pitcher whose peripherals are all headed in the wrong direction.

Miguel Montero - FD 2500 DK 3100
If you decide to save up at catcher, Montero makes a fantastic play from where I'm sitting. Montero's best days are behind him, but he's got an OPS .140 points better against right handed pitching, and he's facing a doozy of a righty on Thursday. I hate to say bad things about Michael Lorenzen, but, do I hate to say bad things about him? He has lousy command and doesn't have a single swing and miss offering, mitigating Montero's biggest weakness (the K). If Montero's out there, you could argue that he has even more upside than Posey today (though the downside is always a problem here).

Consider: Jonathan Lucroy, because Tanner Roark.
 

First base

Early Slate
Carlos Santana - FD 3700 DK 4200
Santana's a sneaky platoon guy - compiling an OPS more than .50 points better against left handed pitching during his career. While his patience is somewhat counter-acted by JA Happ's control, his Ks should also not be too much of a factor since Happ doesn't strike anyone out. This seems like a great spot to take him for his potential power upside, and given how little you have to spend on pitching early, I'll be a buyer.

Late Slate
Anthony Rizzo - FD 4400 DK 5500
A to the Rizz-o! The Cubs' slugging lefty was put on Earth to torture people exactly like Michael Lorenzen. Rizzo's 1.040 OPS, 11 home runs, and 10 steals make him one of the very highest upside guys you can grab from a game to game basis this season, and in a great hitter's park against a simply terrible pitcher, it's hard to imagine him doing anything other than positively going off. Well, I guess it is BASEBALL(!), so anything could happen, but I love Rizzo in all formats.

David Ortiz - FD 2400 DK 3900
I'll keep trotting Ortiz out there when I want to save up at first base if he's going to cost this little and face pitchers that bad. Poor Chris Tillman - there was a time when he was a top 20 prospect, and it looked like his floor was a #3. He's something like a #9 now, or would be on most team, but the Orioles don't want to give up. More power to them! His 4.92 xFIP is just awful, though, and his tendency to leave balls up in the zone will continue to present problems for him. Ortiz should have a ton of RBI opportunities here, and has quite the high floor from where I'm sitting.

Second base

Early Slate
Robinson Cano - FD 2400 DK 3800
Signs of life from Cano on Tuesday, as he smacked two doubles? He looked pretty bad again on Wednesday, but at this point, the price just remains so cheap that I have to consider him a higher floor option than the "barely play" guys around him if only because he still bats ahead of where they do in the lineup. Marcum hasn't been an interesting pitcher in years upon years, and if Cano has anything left in the tank, this could be a good spot for him to take care of a little business.

Late Slate
Dustin Pedroia - FD 3400 DK 4300
Not a lot of fantastic options in the late slate, so I like a consistent hitter who bats atop a pretty good offense. Pedroia's been making a lot of hard contact against right handed pitching this season, putting together an .809 OPS against Northpaws, and while some of that is BABIP fueled, it still represents an improved approach. I also like taking him here because some of the guys who bat nearby (Ortiz, Sandoval) see a boost against right handed pitching, which could give him more opportunity for counting stats.

Ben Zobrist - FD 2600 DK 4000
For a lot of the same reasons we're recommending Cano in the early slate. Fundamentally, not a lot has changed about Ben Zobrist's approach this season. He's walking about the same amount, and has dropped his Ks by 5% down to a sparkling 7.4%. And his ISO has climbed! So what gives? Well, his BABIP has dropped to .205 - .085 points off his career levels - and it's making him look like a monkey's uncle. I still think he's got a fantastic floor, made all the better due to the fact that he can face Chi-Chi Gonzalez, whose 7 walks and 4 Ks in 14 IP tell a more accurate story than his silly ERA.

Shortstop

Early Slate
Marcus Semien - FD 2400 DK 3900
Brad Miller - FD 2300 DK 3400
Semien for safety, Miller for upside. Semien's got the better match-up in Chi-Chi Gonzalez, but Miller has shown that he can tap into some legit power against righties who will leave balls where they can be hit, and Marcum is that. I'm fine with either - but I'm definitely going cheap in the early slate at shortstop.

Late Slate
Erick Aybar - FD 2500 DK 3500
Just a high floor play due to the number of at bats and who he hits in front of. I'm not sure there's a good "upside" play at the position in the late slate unless you think Tulo is park-proof against David Phelps, so Aybar's counting stat potential makes him the de-facto play of the bunch.

Starlin Castro - FD 2700 DK 4000
Welp, Castro isn't the superstar it looked like he might be, but he's still a reasonably high floor shortstop play on any given night, and tonight he might be more than that. While he certainly prefers left handed pitching, he really prefers bad pitching - and Michael Lorenzen is that. I think he should have some nice RBI opportunities here, and might turn some of the recent hits he's been compiling into some nice counting stats to go with them.

Third base

Early Slate
Kyle Seager - FD 3000 DK 3700
Seager had a monster Wednesday game, which is actually kind of annoying, because our projection system doesn't even realize it. What it does realize, however, is that Seager will be facing Shaun Marcum. In his last 100 major league innings (spanning from now through 2013), Marcum has a 4+ xFIP and a 5+ ERA. His fly-ball tendencies make a solid power hitter like Seager have more upside than usual, and Seager gets a .115 OPS boost against right handed pitching. Love him in all formats.

Late Slate
Martin Prado - FD 2700 DK 3800
If you're not a Martin Prado fan, and I mean, who really is, but you might not know that Prado can still do some serious damage against left handed pitching. His .838 OPS against southpaws this year is right in line with his .824 career number, and while he definitely lacks the "high upside skills" that you'd want for a large top-heavy payout tournament, I just love him for 50/50s against the still unproven Chris Rusin.

Manny Machado - FD 3200 DK 4300
I don't think I've ever recommend Machado against a left hander before, as he's such a severe reverse platoon split guy, but Wade Miley is so bad that I'm prepared to make an upside-based exception. Miley's sub-6 K/9 means he won't be as equipped as many to take advantage of Machado's raw approach, and his propensity to miss in the zone could give Machado ample opportunity to take advantage of his extreme power/speed upside. Not a sure thing, but he's the GPP yin to Martin Prado's cash game yang.

Also considered: Anthony Rendon.

Outfield

Early Slate
Josh Reddick - FD 3200 DK 3800
It's Reddick, and then a huge gap, and everyone else at outfield for me today. Reddick has brutalized right handed pitching for a 1.077 OPS this season, and he'll be facing one of the very worst righties he's faced all season in Chi-Chi Gonzalez. If Gonzalez makes mistakes around the plate with the same frequency he made them in his first few starts, Reddick could really put a show on here.

A bunch of cheap guys: I may have under-sold how big the gap is between Reddick and the field early. I think I'll probably round out my early lineups with guys like Nick Markakis, Will Venable, or Ryan Raburn (if he plays) - guys with good platoon spots who will have some opportunity to take some cuts. Our projection system doesn't hate guys like Brandon Moss or Michael Brantley going against their platoon against Happ, but oy, I'll pass.

Late Slate
Giancarlo Stanton - FD 5300 DK 5800
Here's the guy you're saving up for in the late slate. Stanton is slugging .825 against lefties this season, and yeah, that won't continue, but the 25 year old masher does have a godly .607 SLG against lefties over the course of his young and illustrious career. Grabbing him against an unproven commodity like Chris Rusin is basically printing money, and on a day where you'll save at pitching, he's basically a must play.

Marcell Ozuna - FD 3100 DK 4300
A destitute, homeless version of Giancarlo Stanton, but Ozuna has a 1k OPS against lefties in 42 at bats this year and a .090 OPS point advantage against lefties over the course of his career as well. Could be a nice guy to stack and pair with Giancarlo.

Hunter Pence - FD 3000 DK 4300
Pence has been about .050 OPS points better against left handed pitching over the course of his career, and while it hasn't looked that way this season, all of that should regress in fairly short order. He's still plenty the power/speed threat he's been recently, and playing him against the left-handed Niese looks like a fine value play. Update: Pence looks like he's headed to the DL. For DFS purposes this is bad and if you played him would result in 0 points.

Also considered: Kole Calhoun, Adam Jones, Curtis Granderson.

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