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Let’s take a look at some of the tiers for Friday and guys you can target.
Matt Harvey
The best pitcher on the slate is a guy you should definitely have in your lineups no matter which option you choose. Because salary isn’t a concern you don’t need to worry about “fitting” him in. Harvey is a stud who’s picked up right where he left off pre-injury. He’s striking out more than a batter an inning and is able to go deeper in games because of his control. The Marlins are a bottom-third offense against righties this season and Citi Field depresses power all the way around. This one’s a lock on this site today.
Cole Hamels
Like I said in our main picks article today, I think there is a tendency to avoid the Rockies in pitching matchups because of a carry over effect they get from the Coors’ offensive boost. Don’t let this sway you. They’ve been a bad offense this season and even with the park factor adjustment rank in the lower half of the league against lefties. They are also striking out more than 25% of the time in that split. Bottom line: after some heavy hitters at the top, they aren’t a good team. Hamels is K-ing enough batters though I am a little concerned about the walks. He’s a big money line favorite for the win in this slate and I like him in this tier.
Taijuan Walker
Depending on the style of game you are playing, I do like the advantage of playing pitchers in this tier whenever it’s EV+. With Walker you are getting a chance for to add some points with his strikeout upside. He is K-ing nearly a batter an inning and his xFIP is nearly 2.5 runs less than his 7+ ERA. Now this isn’t to say he is a great arm. Far from it, but this is why he’s in the second tier. The downside is of course that he gets shelled by an Indian team that ranks in the top third of the league against righties. But in a Friday tournament, I think you can take Walker in the event he gets rolling down hill with the strikeouts.
Miguel Cabrera
Some of the other heavy hitters in this tier have suboptimal pitching matchups, but not Miggy. He’s facing Hector Santiago who isn’t nearly as good as the 2.47 ERA would suggest. The xFIP is more in the mid 4’s. Miggy is putting together another Miggy-like year with an OPS over 1K and a .254 ISO. He’s taking a ton of walks which raises his floor quite a bit. See him as the safest bat in this group today.
Joey Votto
He’s facing Stephen Strasburg which, at one time, would have scared me. But not anymore. Strasburg looks broken and is leaving tons of balls over the middle of the plate to opposing batters. It’s why he’s getting shelled repeatedly even though some of the underlying numbers don’t look too bad. He’s also struggling with runners on base pitching out of the stretch.Votto is one of the elite bats in Tier C and I will have him no matter the combination.
David Ortiz
Even though he was dropped some in the order, I’m all over Big Papi in this matchup. He’s facing Yovani Gallardo who strikes out less than seven batters per nine and walks more than 2.5. Ortiz has been running a little bad in the Babip, though some of that is probably shift related. Still, the Ballpark in Arlington is one of the best for lefty power in the game. Gallardo is home run prone and Ortiz is another lock for me in this tier.
Evan Longoria
Almost seems like a mistake that he’s in this tier. While Longoria might not be the hitter he was a few year’s back, this is still a guy OPS’ing over .800, hitting in the middle of the lineup and facing an average righty in Miguel Gonzalez. Though Longoria is much better against lefties, Camden Yards boosts power all around and his tiering is the big story here. He’s by far the best overall hitter in this tier today even in the wrong platoon.
Jace Peterson
Not a guy I typically think about a ton though there is a case for Jace in this game. He’s facing a weaker arm in Tim Hudson who’s striking out less than 4.5 batters per nine this season. That lowers the K expectation for Jace which is important. Peterson is a guy who takes walks and has a bit of speed. The big thing for him though is the leadoff spot. The extra plate appearance expectation makes a big difference in these games as it can help offset some offensive deficiencies. There are for sure some other interesting names in this tier like Kyle Seager and Nolan Arenado. Peterson, I think, is in the same group today.
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