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TPC Four Seasons Resort - Irving, Texas
Par 70, 7166 Yards
I am back for another week of DFS PGA action for the AT&T Byron Nelson. Before we get to this week though let's take a look back at last week. I didn't get a bunch of time to watch the Crowne Plaza Invitational this past weekend but definitely followed closely on Twitter and the PGA Tour App. Chris Kirk captured the title with a -12 and great weekend of golf shooting 65/66. He edged out two of my other picks from last week, Spieth & Bohn. There were a few others lurking on Sunday including Snedeker, Perez, Hadwin, Poulter, Mcneil, and even my value pick Jerry Kelly. All in all it was an exciting Sunday for the PGA. I cashed 2 of my 6 lineups in GPP tournies this weekend with my balanced approach doing the best by far. Of my 11 picks last week, 10 made the cut(Peterson Withdrew on the weekend), 7 finished inside the Top 25, 5 had Top 10's, 2 T2's, and a win. Overall it was a very successful week and also a very successful two weeks now hitting 17/19 players making the cut. I will be looking to keep the good picks going for you all this week at the Byron Nelson.
This week the players head to Irving, Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson. If there were ever a week to take off, whether a player or DFSer, this would be the week. Voted by the players as one of the worst tournaments on tour. The field is usually lacking top talent and this could be for a few reasons. It falls between the majors and is during a busy time in the season so many players take this week off. Also, the course itself isn't anything too exciting for the players. It is a Par 70, 7166 Yard test. A shorter course with plenty of bunkers, narrow fairways, and large undulating greens. This course has been used for this event since 1986 but the course was re-designed in 2007 so course history will only be relevant from that point forward. When analyzing past winners and players who have done well here, you will notice a mix of long hitters and accuracy guys. It was very hard to find stats for this week that correlated between players who were successful here. The one stat I am relying most heavily on this week is All Around Ranking. This is the stat I found to correlate the best when looking at past Top 20 Leaderboards. I have also added GIR and Proximity as a stat this week. Not only is hitting the greens important, but because of the undulation Proximity will be very important. A player can hit a big green and have a 20-40 foot putt and be happy with a 2 putt. To make Birdie on these holes you will also have to get the ball close to the pin to have a chance with the putter. I have added Par 4 & 5 scoring average to cheatsheet calculation as well. First of all, there are only 2 Par 5's on the course and if you aren't -1/-2 each day on these you will lose strokes to the field. When looking at the Par 4's I want a player who plays these well as there are 5 Par 4's over 450 yards and 2 over 500 yards. As I usually do in my calculation I will also be using Strokes Gained Putting and Tee to Green stat. I have 7 stats in my calculation this week and the reasoning for more this week is due to the wide variety of player types that do well here. As I always want guys with good stats, this week seems a bit off the board. I will be closely looking at current form mixed with some course history to find guys to roster this week.
Of the 12 golfers in Tier 1 this week all but 1(Woodland) are inside Top 33 in All Around Ranking. All have good averages of my 7 stat categories. I will be looking for guys in this Tier who separate themselves with good course history and recent form.
Dustin Johnson - $12,700 (Vegas Odds – 12/1)
Leading off for me this week is DJ. He is 23rd in All Around Ranking, 31st in Proximity, 5th in Par 5 Scoring Avg, and 9th SG: Tee to Green. He will also pick up an advantage on holes where length is needed off the tee. He has played here 5 times since the re design and hasn't missed a cut and has posted 3 Top 10's. His last 2 stroke play tournaments haven't been great(T43,T69) but before that posted 5 Top 6 finishes in 6 tournies. I think DJ has a great shot at winning this week if he can putt even average with the field. I will have multiple lineups with him in both Cash & GPP.
Jason Day - $11,200 (Vegas Odds – 17/1)
***Day has withdrawn from the tournament. DO NOT ROSTER***
Next up in the top tier is Jason Day. He averages a 36.3 rank in my 7 stats on my cheatsheet which is a field 4th best. Day is ranked 30th or better in 6 of the 7 stats highlighted by a 2nd in All Around Ranking. His game seems to fit anywhere he decides to play but this week he comes to a course where he has enjoyed tremendous success. He has played this course 4 times from 2010-2013 and finished T10 3 times including a WIN in 2010. He did miss his first cut of 2015 at the PLAYERS but look for a rebound this week and should contend for the win.
Matt Kuchar - $9500 (Vegas Odds – 29/1)
Another golfer who missed the cut at the PLAYERS who doesn't worry me at all. Like Day, Kuchar is one of the most consistent and highly ranked players on tour. The missed cut was also his only one for the year. Don't expect it to happen 2 tournaments in a row. His average rank is 52.1 highlighted by a 15th in All Around Rank, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring Avg, and 6th in SG: Putting. If Matt can hit around average GIR and Prox this week he should get back to form and post at least a T10. His course history here is also a plus as he has played here 7 times and not missed a cut since the re design. He finished T7 here last year.
Also consider Justin Thomas, Harris English, & Ryan Palmer at the bottom of Tier 1
Tier 2 has a mix of GPP & Cash game plays. I will highlight a few for each style.
Charley Hoffman - $8400 (Vegas Odds – 34/1)
Keegan Bradley - $8400 (Vegas Odds - 34/1)
The ultimate GPP plays. Same price on DK, same Vegas odds, and very similar stats.Both have upside of winning the tournament and downside of missing cuts as both are awful putters this year. The only difference between them and some of the guys priced in Tier 1 is the floor. Hoffman has made his last 7 cuts with 4 finishes inside T11. Bradley missed the cut at the PLAYERS but had 6 straight cuts made before that with a T5 in the middle. Hoffman has made 4/7 cuts here since 2007 with 2 Top 10's. Keegan has played here 4 times and has played well each time with a T29, 2nd, T24, and a WIN in his first trip. As for the similar stats so far this year, check them out:
Daniel Berger - $8100 (Vegas Odds – 67/1)
Next up is Daniel Berger who is another mid range GPP value. He has been up and down this year showing flashes of brilliance but also has missed 5 cuts in 2015. He finished 2nd in a playoff at the Honda Classic which was also a Par 70 shorter course. His stats and game seem to correlate to Par 70 courses and he ranks 41 in my 7 stats I chose. Berger should be able to find some success here at TPC Four Seasons.
Brendan De Jonge - $7500 (Vegas Odds – 101/1)
The golfer in Tier 2 that I feel is a good value for cash games is De Jonge. He has made 7 of his last 9 cuts with a couple top 10's. He played here last year and finished T29 and before that hadn't played here since 2010 where he missed back to back cuts. He is much more of a consistent player these past few years and his game seems to fit this course. Check out his stat ranks:
There is quite a few guys within a $400 difference in price this week but I feel there is 2 values that you can't pass up.
Boo Weekley - $7000 (Vegas Odds – 67/1)
First up in Tier 3 is Boo who has been on a roll as of late, 4 of his last 5 cuts with a T5 and T16 in there. When looking at his course history he has made 2/3 cuts and finished T5 here last year. All 7 of his stats are ranked 85 or better and his average on all 7 is 52.4. Pretty good for the price.
Morgan Hoffman - $7000 (Vegas Odds – 51/1)
The second Hoffman in this article! Hmm. Maybe a double Hoffman lineup this week. Morgan comes in at a tremendous value based off his Vegas odds of 51/1. Other guys in the that range are priced between $7500-$8500. He loves playing at TPC Four Seasons. He has played here the past 2 years and finished T16(2014) & T5(2013). His average stat rank is 93.1 and highlighted by an All Around Rank of 54, Par 5 Scoring average of 11th, and a SG:P rank of 24th. A good combo for this course.
Jason Dufner - $6900 (Vegas Odds – 76/1)
Thought it was weird seeing Dufner all the way down below $7000 so I dug a little deeper. Sure, his 2015 form isn't where he was at before becoming "Skinny Dufner" but look a little closer and he has made 7 of his last 9 cuts. Although he hasn't had more than 1 Top 20 I feel he is a pretty solid low tier value cash play this week. His course history also backs up this case. He has made 4/5 cuts since 2007 and his last 4 appearances have resulted in T48, T33, WIN, T8. He also averages a 88 rank on my cheatsheet. He just needs to make some putts this week and he should at least make the cut and possibly achieve a better result.
Scott Piercy - $6600 (Vegas Odds – 81/1)
Last but definitely not least is Piercy. He is more of a GPP play as he has stretches of consecutive missed cuts throughout the year. When he does make the cut he is finishing Top 40 or better most of the time and has a T10 in there as well. He has played well here in the past (T5,T15,26, cut past 4). His odds of 81/1 are also a heck of a lot lower than other guys in his tier and most guys in the tier before.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north. Playing other DFS? Be sure to try out a free 3-day trial to the projection system that helps produce picks for the NBA, MLB and NFL! And check out our free NBA ebook below.
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