Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 5/25/15

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Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks

Analysis
Note: Because of the short, two-day slates, there is a lot of overlapping analysis here.
What the hell did we just watch? LeBron starts the game 0-10, and then.... huh? A 37/18/13 line, pushing the Cavs to a 3-0 lead over a 60 win team. I just, I... I don't know.
 

Elite Plays
LeBron James - FD 11700 DK 11400
Hopefully this one doesn't require a whole lot of explanation. Sans Kyrie and Love, it's LeBron left, right, and center.

Jeff Teague - FD 7300 DK 7500
Teague dropped 51 fantasy points (slightly inflated due to overtime), but it's no surprise to us. We knew he'd be seeing increased action given Korver's absence, and it played out predictably. Teague is also benefiting from being covered by Delladova & co., who simply aren't up to the task. I expect more of the same in game 4.

Tristan Thompson - FD 5600 DK 6300
Thompson took a slight step back in production in game 3 and still basically paid value. It looks to me mostly like a rebounding aberration - some balls that bounced his way in earlier games bounced toward LeBron here. James won't keep getting 18 rebounds a game, and given Thompson's minutes and production, those will necessarily start bouncing his way.

Kent Bazemore - FD 2400 DK 2500
Shelvin Mack - FD 2000 DK 2000
Mike Scott - FD 2000 DK 2700
Mike Muscala - FD 2000 DK 2300
Bazemore got the start, but all three of these guys paid off their prices and then some in game 3, and with Korver done for the playoffs, I expect it will be more of the same in game 4. The bizarrely low prices mean you can play superduperstars elsewhere, and I'll highly consider playing all three and filling my lineup with the LeBrons and Currys (Curries?) of the world.

Value Plays
Matthew Dellavedova - FD 3400 DK 3500
Wrote this before game 2:
A rare chance to get a total price error during the playoffs. Delladova is no great shakes or anything, but chances are good he'll get 30 minutes in Kyrie's absence. If he does, it will just be plain hard NOT to score the points necessary to justify this value. It's semi-risky playing him because I suppose there's a chance Kyrie comes back on Sunday, but at this point I'd venture to say that it's a risky worth taking since it will mean you can spend up elsewhere.

Welp, Delladova put up 23+ fantasy points - paying his way and then some in game 2, and then went out and put up 19.4 points in game 3. I think I like the Hawks guys a little bit better, but I definitely don't think you're going too wrong here.

J.R. Smith - FD 5400 DK 5200
Smith went out and got it done a little differently in game 3, putting up a 17/10 en route to 34 fantasy points. Naturally, this was quite a great outcome for Smith owners - 6x points per dollar is no joke. And more? I think this is essentially sustainable. He's out there a ton, and he'll crash the boards from time to time with the Cavs going small instead of playing Mozgov a ton of minutes.

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors

Analysis
Note: Most of this is from Doug's previous write-up, and we didn't really learn a lot from game 3 that we didn't know already.
I'm not even sure what we're witnessing here. The Clippers grind to 7 games against the Spurs and win, then grind to 7 against the Rockets, and lose. The Rockets walk into Golden State after playing some good teams and proceed to get embarrassed. It's clear that they are really missing Patrick Beverley's defense in particular, as Curry simply eviscerated them in game 3. The series is over - I suppose the only question is whether the Warriors will keep their foot on the gas in the next game or not.
 

Elite Plays
James Harden - FD 10600 DK 9800
Harden came crashing unceremoniously down to Earth in game 3, but I just can't look at this without thinking that if Houston is going to go down, they'll go down in the hands of their best player. Harden's usage returns to the previous levels in this game, and I think he'll take an insane amount of shots en route to potentially getting swept.

Stephen Curry - FD 10300 DK 10500
Curry went to another level on Saturday night, going off for 40 points while providing nice ancillary stats as well. But it's not like it was totally out of left field - it was his 4th 50 fantasy point game out of his last 6 in the playoffs. The MVP is on fire right now, and you're only fading him at your own risk. The only risk I see here is that if the Warriors blow the Rockets out again, Curry might not see his full run. But that's a very minimal risk in my mind.

Andrew Bogut - FD 5300 DK 4600
We've given you Bogut all along the way, and he's been amazing in each of his last two games, posting nearly 6x points per dollar on his FanDuel price. His per minute rebounding stats are just out of sight (12 boards in 20 minutes last game, lol!), and that gives him both a high floor and a high ceiling going into game 4.

Value Plays
Josh Smith - FD 5800 DK 5700
He's taken 31 shots in the last two games, and for whatever reason, it seems like he's a part of the Rockets' plan. It's not that I particularly love him here, but he's still very affordable for that kind of usage, and if his shot starts falling a bit more, there's huge points per dollar upside here - especially if you think that GS might not go for the jugular here.

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