Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 5/23/15

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Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks

Analysis
Note: Because of the short, two-day slates, there is a lot of overlapping analysis here.
It wasn't a pretty game to watch. There was a lot of hobbling around, shoes falling off, arguing with refs, wild shots, and some other pieces that contributed to it being less than a fantastic viewing experience. At times it seemed like every player was getting hurt at once. I don't mean this as a way to make light of injuries. They suck, and have been an underlying story throughout most of these playoffs. It's just that the product is somewhat compromised by the injuries. That's all.

Well, Irving is officially taking a game off, and his status for Sunday remains unclear. This write-up will be assuming that he misses that game as well.

Editor's note: Keep an eye on injuries to Horford and Korver. If they look limited or potentially out after news comes out on Saturday, you should obviously change your approach accordingly.
 

Elite Plays
LeBron James - FD 11700 DK 11400
He's the do-everything piece for the Cavs and that really isn't a surprise. He was already a mismatch for the Hawks and will be even more of one with Demarre Carroll most likely out for next game. Lebron is going to cause major problems for Paul Millsap or whoever they really stick on him at this point. If it's Millsap then James will work him around the perimeter. If it's anyone else, he'll post them up to oblivion. The injury to Carroll really boosts James's expectation. But stay tuned and see about Carroll. More than that, though, will be the absence of Kyrie. This is basically the same team that James took to the finals against San Antonio a million years ago. He'll need to do everything, and he will.

Jeff Teague - FD 7300 DK 7500
Our system has him as one of the best plays on the slate and dude delivered in game one with a 27/4/3 line thanks to a high volume of shots. If Irving is back, Teague becomes an even better play - but the guys who should cover Teague in Kyrie's stead are no great defensive shakes either. The PG spot will be attacked here, and since the Cavs need to respect Korver, Teague should get his yet again.

Tristan Thompson - FD 5600 DK 6300
Doug writes:
Like I said yesterday, minutes, minutes, minutes. Rebounds, rebounds, rebounds. Got it done in game one with a 14/10 line that enough to pay for his prices. He is going to play basically the whole game because part of their big and small lineups. The Cavs need him out there in totality now. And it's all still true. The Cavs should have decent spacing with lineups of shooters + LeBron + Thompson, and he'll need to do something down low to keep the Hawks big men honest. I think he will.

Kent Bazemore - FD 2400 DK 2500
If he gets the start for Carroll in game two then he should be 100% start and anyone not doing it is going in as dead money as far as I'm concerned. He'd be a min-priced player getting full-ish run because of an injury. See what you can find out about Carroll leading into the game and then roll accordingly.

Value Plays
Matthew Dellavedova - FD 3400 DK 3500
A rare chance to get a total price error during the playoffs. Delladova is no great shakes or anything, but chances are good he'll get 30 minutes in Kyrie's absence. If he does, it will just be plain hard NOT to score the points necessary to justify this value. It's semi-risky playing him because I suppose there's a chance Kyrie comes back on Sunday, but at this point I'd venture to say that it's a risky worth taking since it will mean you can spend up elsewhere.

J.R. Smith - FD 5400 DK 5200
From Doug:
Understand that this pick has very little do with his other-worldly shooting performance in game two. Rather, it is more made from the minutes he played. Smith, if he's getting run in the mid 30's, is a solid play at these prices. Don't expect him to shoot 8/12 from three ever again in his life. That won't happen. But he's productive even without the epic scoring run. Stands to reason he sees similar minutes in game two because of the matchups.

Iman Shumpert - FD 4800 DK 5200
Shot bad from the field in game one but the minutes were there. I won't pivot off of him just because he struggled from the field. Shumpert is getting quality minutes and that's the name of the game at these prices and his position.

Paul Millsap - FD 8700 DK 7800
I'm adding him to the value plays and not the elite plays for a reason. I don't love his points/$ expectation, but you might be in a spot with saving at other positions that playing him is the prudent move. That's because the power forward position is a little thin on this slate and there will be some money to spend. Millsap rarely hits the stratosphere, but I do expect bigger minutes out of him with Carroll out. He might be flagged chasing James around, but I think he'll also shoulder a greater portion of the rebounding load.

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors

Analysis
Note: This is all from Doug's previous write-up, and they haven't played a game since then. So it still stands.
The thing about Golden State is that there are times when they can look not so great, and even a little sloppy. They went through stretches like this after the first quarter when shots were clanking and passes were flying backcourt or out of bounds. But here's the thing with the Warriors, their style of play makes up for these lapses in lightening quick fashion. Just when you think you are getting back into the game or have them on the ropes, they go assassin all over you. Would it surprise me to see them sweep the rest of the playoffs? No. And while I don't think it's necessarily likely, that I could even consider is a testament to just how polished and united a team they've become.

Now, of course I know that they were one Harden dribble drive from being tied in this series. I can't explain why Harden played that end game the way he did. But I really do believe the Warriors were their own worst enemy in this one. Harden played as good as one player can in a single game. He carried the team. And his wizardry is the only reason this game even appeared close. If anything, I think this is a blip. Might catch flak for that, but just the way I saw it playing out.

Elite Plays
James Harden - FD 10600 DK 9800
He's still the go-to player on these slates as is his usage rate is just off the charts right now. The Rockets have no real reason to let anyone else do the walking here because Harden is able to take over the game for long stretches. Even without going to the free throw line he was able to creat so much freaking offense it was unreal. Don't see a reason to fade as he's going to get every minute he can handle.

Stephen Curry - FD 10300 DK 10500
Turnovers killed his upside in game two. But as far as these slates are concerned you need to play Curry whenever possible because the upside is still very much there. He was sloppy with some of his passing tonight which led to him losing points there, but he is still an assassin from downtown and when he gets it going there isn't anyone better.

Andrew Bogut - FD 5300 DK 4600
We had him as a top value play if Howard was going to play for the Rockets. Dwight played and Bogut was a beast. The reasoning here is simple. Bogut needs to play the minutes Dwight plays. The Warriors don't have a lot of options when it comes to fronting Dwight and those minutes translate to productivity for Bogut. He went 14/8/4/5 in game two which made him the best bargain in the game.
Value Plays
Dwight Howard - FD 9000 DK 8500
Dollar-for-dollar I think I like Bogut more, but Dwight was a beast in game two. He came close to a 20/20 game and the forty minutes of run means that whatever injuries he was dealing with are of little concern now. Tough to fit him in with some of the other big money guys, but he's productive even at the bigger tags.

Josh Smith - FD 5800 DK 5700
Took seventeen shots in game two. That's a ton and though the minutes weren't there, I'd be willing to consider him a value going into game three. Don't get caught up in one game sample sizes right now (though I know it's easy).

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