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Troy Tulowitzki
Carlos Gonzalez
The Rockies have been struggling some of offense this season, but you need to remember something. They've played more games on the road than at home this season. Due to some rainouts early on, they lost a bunch of their games in that sweet Mile High air, and haven't caught up yet. That will begin to swing as the season moves along and their stats climb. Now of course, this matters a little more on salary sites where the prices are depressed. But others will look at the grotesque OPS's for these two guys and think there is something wrong. Other than Tulo's walk rate running at a career low, nothing else about their batted ball profiles is too terribly alarming. CarGo is expecially making solid contact with a great LD%. And Tulo is running really bad in Hr/FB. Coors helps with that number. I love these two for the top of the total bases category today against Vogelsong who's K rate is less than seven per nine with an xFIP close to five.
Angel Pagan
Norichika Aoki
I'm picking on Coors a lot today, but you kind of have to. It's the bet hitter's park in all of baseball and whenever possible we need to take advantage. These two guys are in excellent spots for much the same reason. They hit at the top of the order and are facing Kyle Kendrick who doesn't strike anyone out. Kendrick, this season, is K-ing less than five batters per nine and walking a decent amount. I don't love the latter stat when trying to predict hits in a game. But that these guys have a lowered K expectation is a good place to start. Both are great contact hitters. They both strike out about 10% of the time against righty pitching and neither draws a ton of walks. Love the contact rates for pumping out hits. And what I love about ScoreStreak is that while other sites have corrected prices for Coors, you don't need to worry about that here and can mini-stack to your heart's delight.
Max Scherzer
There are loads of solid arms going on the mound today, so you are going to need to get K's right as there will be a ton of them. Scherzer is the obvious choice here. He's been a stud this season with a K rate closing in on 11 per nine while walking less than two in the same frame. The xFIP at 2.89 is behind his 1.75 ERA, but I'm not letting that sway me too much. The Phillies are a garbage offense that ranks near the bottom of the league. They don't strike out a ton against righties, but Scherzer should be able to hang around long in this game to keep the K's up there. He's struck out double digits in three his last four games and I have no problem putting him in the 9K slot today.
Jeff Samardzija
Look, I'm going to have King Felix in the top three as well, so don't worry about that too much (though I don't love the matchup or the park). But for a little contrarian value I think I'm going to roll the Shark on this slate. Samardzija is facing a Twins' team that ranks near the bottom of the league in team wOBA against righties. They also strike out a ton, at about a 23% clip. That's a lot of swings and misses. Samardzija doesn't have the elite K numbers this season, but I think you can put him in the six K slot. This is a good spot to fade Greinke who has similar peripherals as Samardzija and is in a worse matchup.
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