Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 5/22/15

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Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks

Analysis
Note: Because of the short, two-day slates, this is the same analysis that appeared in yesterday's write up.
It wasn't a pretty game to watch. There was a lot of hobbling around, shoes falling off, arguing with refs, wild shots, and some other pieces that contributed to it being less than a fantastic viewing experience. At times it seemed like every player was getting hurt at once. I don't mean this as a way to make light of injuries. They suck, and have been an underlying story throughout most of these playoffs. It's just that the product is somewhat compromised by the injuries. That's all.

The other big story of game one was Mr. J.R. Smith. He of the unflagging moral compass and astute values, Smith was really the story of the game. He went nuts from the field and especially from three where he shot 8/12. Taking over that scoring burden from a clearly-not-himself Kyrie Irving saved the Cav's bacon. It won't be a consistent thing, but to steal a game in Atlanta with Irving hobbled was a big thing.

 

Elite Plays
LeBron James - FD 11700 DK 11400
He's the do-everything piece for the Cavs and that really isn't a surprise. He was already a mismatch for the Hawks and will be even more of one with Demarre Carroll most likely out for next game. Lebron is going to cause major problems for Paul Millsap or whoever they really stick on him at this point. If it's Millsap then James will work him around the perimeter. If it's anyone else, he'll post them up to oblivion. The injury to Carroll really boosts James's expectation. But stay tuned and see about Carroll.

Jeff Teague - FD 7200 DK 7300
Our system has him as one of the best plays on the slate and dude delivered in game one with a 27/4/3 line thanks to a high volume of shots. Kyrie and the Cavs aren't good at defending opposing point guards to begin with. And with Irving banged up it opens up even more opportunity for the one. Teague took advantage and put up 24 shots. Don't doubt something similar happens in game two.

Tristan Thompson - FD 5400 DK 6000
Like I said yesterday, minutes, minutes, minutes. Rebounds, rebounds, rebounds. Got it done in game one with a 14/10 line that enough to pay for his prices. He is going to play basically the whole game because part of their big and small lineups. The Cavs need him out there in totality now.

Kent Bazemore - FD 2000 DK 2300
If he gets the start for Carroll in game two then he should be 100% start and anyone not doing it is going in as dead money as far as I'm concerned. He'd be a min-priced player getting full-ish run because of an injury. See what you can find out about Carroll leading into the game and then roll accordingly.

 

Value Plays
J.R. Smith - FD 4800 DK 4900
Understand that this pick has very little do with his other-worldly shooting performance in game two. Rather, it is more made from the minutes he played. Smith, if he's getting run in the mid 30's, is a solid play at these prices. Don't expect him to shoot 8/12 from three ever again in his life. That won't happen. But he's productive even without the epic scoring run. Stands to reason he sees similar minutes in game two because of the matchups.

Iman Shumpert - FD 4800 DK 5200
Shot bad from the field in game one but the minutes were there. I won't pivot off of him just because he struggled from the field. Shumpert is getting quality minutes and that's the name of the game at these prices and his position.

Paul Millsap - FD 8800 DK 8200
I'm adding him to the value plays and not the elite plays for a reason. I don't love his points/$ expectation, but you might be in a spot with saving at other positions that playing him is the prudent move. That's because the power forward position is a little thin on this slate and there will be some money to spend. Millsap rarely hits the stratosphere, but I do expect bigger minutes out of him.

 

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors

Analysis
The thing about Golden State is that there are times when they can look not so great, and even a little sloppy. They went through stretches like this after the first quarter when shots were clanking and passes were flying backcourt or out of bounds. But here's the thing with the Warriors, their style of play makes up for these lapses in lightening quick fashion. Just when you think you are getting back into the game or have them on the ropes, they go assassin all over you. Would it surprise me to see them sweep the rest of the playoffs? No. And while I don't think it's necessarily likely, that I could even consider is a testament to just how polished and united a team they've become.

Now, of course I know that they were one Harden dribble drive from being tied in this series. I can't explain why Harden played that end game the way he did. But I really do believe the Warriors were their own worst enemy in this one. Harden played as good as one player can in a single game. He carried the team. And his wizardry is the only reason this game even appeared close. If anything, I think this is a blip. Might catch flak for that, but just the way I saw it playing out.

 

Elite Plays
James Harden - FD 9900 DK 9500
He's still the go-to player on these slates as is his usage rate is just off the charts right now. The Rockets have no real reason to let anyone else do the walking here because Harden is able to take over the game for long stretches. Even without going to the free throw line he was able to creat so much freaking offense it was unreal. Don't see a reason to fade as he's going to get every minute he can handle.

Stephen Curry - FD 10100 DK 10400
Turnovers killed his upside in game two. But as far as these slates are concerned you need to play Curry whenever possible because the upside is still very much there. He was sloppy with some of his passing tonight which led to him losing points there, but he is still an assassin from downtown and when he gets it going there isn't anyone better.

Andrew Bogut - FD 5000 DK 4600
We had him as a top value play if Howard was going to play for the Rockets. Dwight played and Bogut was a beast. The reasoning here is simple. Bogut needs to play the minutes Dwight plays. The Warriors don't have a lot of options when it comes to fronting Dwight and those minutes translate to productivity for Bogut. He went 14/8/4/5 in game two which made him the best bargain in the game.
Value Plays
Dwight Howard - FD 8900 DK 8500
Dollar-for-dollar I think I like Bogut more, but Dwight was a beast in game two. He came close to a 20/20 game and the forty minutes of run means that whatever injuries he was dealing with are of little concern now. Tough to fit him in with some of the other big money guys, but he's productive even at the bigger tags.

Josh Smith - FD 5800 DK 5400
Took seventeen shots in game two. That's a ton and though the minutes weren't there, I'd be willing to consider him a value going into game three. Don't get caught up in one game sample sizes right now (though I know it's easy).

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