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Colonial Country Club - Fort Worth, Texas
Par 70, 7204 Yards
Very interesting week at the Wells Fargo Championship this past week. I was able to get 7 of my 8 picks through to the weekend and if not for Kokrak bogeying the 35th & 36th hole, I would have been 8/8. Mind you, Kokrak probably didn't deserve to make the cut anyway after his 6 Bogeys in the opening round to go with only 1 Birdie. Either way, it was a successful week beyond the fact that my Rory fade blew up in my face. When fading a player priced so much more than everyone else you pretty much just need that player to not win by multiple strokes. I thought it was going good through 2 days then Saturday arrived and he shot a course record 61. He is the world #1 for a reason I guess. It is eerily similar to when Tiger was dominating. When they are at the top of their game they are just a bit better than everyone else's best. Luckily, Rory isn't playing this week so no need to worry about fading him. We move on to next week.
The 125 invited players head to Texas this week for the second last tournament in the state. The Crowne Plaza Invitational has been played at Colonial Country Club since 1946 and is the longest running event(non major)played at the same site on Tour. It has seen some pretty prestigious winners such as Ben Hogan 3 times, Sam Snead, Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Ben Crenshaw, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, and Phil Mickelson. The course, with its narrow fairways and strategic placement of bunkers, requires an accurate player who can hit higher than average fairways in regulation and greens in regulation. When looking at past leaderboards it looks like Driving Distance isn't really a part of the game that is required to contend here. The greens are smaller than average so I will not only be looking at GIR but also Proximity to the hole and Strokes Gained: Putting. Also, with the course being a Par 70 and only having 3 Par 5's I will be looking at Par 3 and Par 4 Scoring Average. I will be mostly concentrating on Par 4's as there are 12 on the course and they can definitely be challenging. The early forecast is showing chance of thunder showers and windy conditions for each day so be sure to check my Twitter feed throughout the week for updates.
Stats Used in this week's Cheatsheet Calculation:
I am loving Tier 1 so much this week I am going to write about 4 players. Two from the top of the tier and 2 from the bottom. All of them have had success at the course and fit the profile I am looking for at Colonial.
Jordan Spieth - $13,000 (Vegas Odds – 6/1)
First up is the Masters champ himself. Spieth comes into this tournament after missing the cut at the Players Championship but before that he was on fire with 8 straight Top 20's, 6 which were Top 10's, 2 runner ups, and a Masters Win. Besides Rory(not playing this week), Spieth is the hottest player on tour. He has played here in each of the past two years and finished T14 last year and T7 the year before. Combine this with his top ranked stats in Prox(36), Par 3(14), Par 4(2), SG:P(6) and I am surprised the gap in price is not more like we seen last week with Rory. This makes it a little easier to build multiple lineups without taking huge risks near the bottom of the salary scale.
Zach Johnson - $12,000 (Vegas Odds – 15/1)
When trying to find a guy who's game fits the course look no further than Zach Johnson. He has won here twice, with 5 Top 10's in 9 trips and has never missed a cut here. He seems to be comfortable here. LOL. Looking at his current form you have to be impressed as well. He has finished Top 20 in 4 of his last 5 stroke play events highlighted by a T13 at the Players and T9 at the Masters. His putting and proximity are outside the norm for Zach so expect them to come back but Zach has always been very accurate off the tee and plays the Par 4's very well.
Brendon Todd - $9100 (Vegas Odds – 46/1)
When looking at my 6 stats I chose to use on my cheatsheet this week Todd ranks 6th among the field averaging a rank of 41.7. He has played here twice and after a rough 76th in his first trip he finished T5 here last season. Todd always seems to do well on the shorter courses and he will be a staple in my cash games this week.
Chris Kirk - $9000 (Vegas Odds – 29/1)
I was only going to write about 3 guys in Tier 1 this week until I noticed the value on Kirk at the bottom of the tier. I see value in Kirk for a few reasons. First, he has the 4th best odds in Tier 1 at 29/1 but is the lowest price guy i the tier. Second, he plays this course very well with a nice history here(T14,T35,T5,T16 his last 4 trips here). He has been on a nice roll as of late as well making his last 5 cuts highlighted by a T13 at the Players. Another guy I will feel comfortable with rolling out in cash games.
Ben Martin - $8500 (Vegas Odds – 41/1)
It has been a very positive season so far for Martin. He has only missed 3 cuts in 2015 to go along with some nice finishes(T4-The Players, 5th-Arnold Palmer, T11-Tournament of CHampions). He has made made his last 4 cuts and is playing with some confidence right now. He played Colonial for the first time last season and finished T21. I can definitely see an improvement on that this tie around. When I looked at the stats, Martin came in 4th in my ranks averaging 40.5 in the 6 categories. His game definitely fits this course.
Russell Knox - $8200 (Vegas Odds – 56/1)
Another guy on my list who's game fits the course is Knox. He comes in 2nd in my ranks with an average rank of 33.5. Very similar to Ben Martin Knox has had a solid year only missing 3 cuts mixed in with some fairly consistent play. He also has made his last 4 cuts and also finished T21 here last season in his first trip. I will have both in my cash lineups this week.
Kevin Streelman - $7500 (Vegas Odds – 67/1)
The last guy in Tier 2 I am targeting this week is Streelman. This is more of a cash game play as Streelman has made 6 of his last 7 cuts and has been fairly consistent. The big thing that pointed me towards Streelman was the difference in his Vegas odds compared to price. He is 67/1 to win the tournament but only $7500. Others guy in the 67/1 range are $770-$8100. His stat ranks are also positive as he averages 62.7 highlighted by 28th in Driving Accuracy, 31st in GIR, & 10th in Par 4 Scoring Average.
Jason Bohn - $7300 (Vegas Odds – 101/1)
Topping Tier 3 this week is Jason Bohn. He ranks 1st on my cheatsheet with an average rank of 30.5 in the 6 stat categories I am using. He is coming off a T9 at the Wells Fargo last weekend before two missed cuts. He doesn't have a great history making 6/8 cuts highlighted by a T13 back in 2010. I will be using Bohn in my GPP lineups this week.
John Peterson - $6900 (Vegas Odds – 67/1)
The first thing that stuck out to me was his Vegas Odds(67/1) compared to his price($6900). As stated with Streelman other guys at 67/1 range are $700-$8100 in price so Peterson comes in at a nice value. Peterson has played here once(2013) and finished T26. He has only missed 1 cut all season long and seems like a great low priced option for both cash and GPP.
I got 2 golfers for you "Stars and Scrubs" lineup builders out there. These guys can miss cuts in bunches but also both have the right game for this course. I will only be considering these guys in GPP lineups.
Jerry Kelly - $6500 (Vegas Odds – 101/1)
My first pick in Tier 4 is Jerry Kelly. He is on a nice little run lately making 3 cuts in a row all inside T22. He doesn't have great history here making 9/14 cuts lifetime with only 1 top 10. One thing Kelly has going in his favor are his average stat rankings. He averages 49.8 in the 6 categories I am using this week. Another Top 30 finish would definitely pay off the price.
Nicholas Thompson - $5500 (Vegas Odds – 201/1)
My final pick of the week is a bottom dweller. He is the 5th lowest priced guy on the board but I feel he is better than that. He has been struggling with 5 straight missed cuts but it has to end sometime and why not this week. He finished T3 here last year so he should be in a good mindset coming back. Also, when you look at his stats, you have to like the price even more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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