Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 5/19/15

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Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors

Analysis
Equal parts L.A. Clippers egg-laying plus the Rockets turning it on offensively, has Houston (somewhat improbably) in the Western Conference Finals against the Warriors. I mean, they were the two seed after all, but I had just mentally penciled the Clippers into this matchup.

The Rockets are heavy, heavy dogs in this series with the Warriors somewhere around -850 to take the series and head to the finals. Golden State, after getting a little scare in losing games two and three to the Grizz, turned their offense back on and promptly laid waste to Memphis in the final three games of the series, outscoring the Grizzlies by an average of seventeen in the final three games. Golden State, when they are rolling, just have too many weapons. The three pointers just decimate opponents as they can turn a closer game into a blowout very quickly.

The Rockets will be at a disadvantage defensively against the Warrior backcourt. This will be a fast-paced and high scoring series, but Vegas probably isn’t wrong in how much better the Warriors are than Houston.

Elite Plays
Stephen Curry - FD 10100 DK 10400
I still have him as the top big money option on these small slates. Without Patrick Beverley, the Rockets lack the elite defender needed to stay with Curry as he performs his nightly feats of wizardry. Steph was bombs away in the final two games of the Memphis series, taking thirteen threes in each of those contests. That’s just a ton of three point volume and I think he keeps the pace. These will be high scoring affairs with Curry asked to provide a lot of the Golden State offense.

HJames Harden - FD 9900 DK 9500 arden
I think I’m taking both Curry and Harden over Lebron on these slates. That’s a tough call though we need to split hairs with so very few options. You can’t play all of them. The Rockets are going to need to play Harden almost the entire game to be able to keep the scoring pace. Seeing him play minutes into the 40’s in these games isn’t anywhere out of the question. And if that’s case he has more upside than Curry. Don’t love the defensive matchup against the Warriors of course, but Harden’s run should justify the price.

Value Plays
Harrison Barnes - FD 4300 DK 4900
He needs to score in order to hit value because dude doesn’t do a whole lot else on the court. But the opportunity should be there for him. He was averaging minutes in the mid-to-high thirties in the Memphis series and that run should be there again. Barnes needs those corner threes to fall, but I think the looks will be there.

Andrew Bogut - FD 5200 DK 5000
The center options are really limited in these short slate, but I think you are in a good spot with Bogut. It stands to reason he’ll be asked to play more minutes to contend with Dwight Howard down low. And even a slight uptick in minutes to the high twenties means he should hit his price point.

Jason Terry - FD 3300 DK 4300
I am probably playing Curry and Teague in the PG slot, but Terry is interesting if he gets any significant run just because he's coming so cheap.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks

Analysis
I suppose if you are a Cleveland native you are somewhat confused about your lot in life. On the one hand, Lebron came back and is turning up the awesome in this playoff run as he puts the team on his back. On the other hand, he shouldn't have to except for injuries to the next two best players on the team. With no Love and now and ailing Kyrie, the Cavs' chances in these playoffs took a definite hit. They did themselves a favor by closing out the Bulls a game early and giving themselves an extra day of rest. Because they'll need it against the Hawks who have home court advantage in this series.

Now home court for Atlanta isn't the same as other teams because it isn't a city living and dying with NBA basketball. But it will still be tough on Cleveland in this matchup. They'll have to contend with a balanced team that can put it to you in a number of ways. The Hawks aren't an elite bunch, but they are balanced and that could be a problem for Cleveland that's very top heavy. I'm having trouble getting a good read on what this series is going to look like.

Elite Plays
LeBron James - FD 11700 DK 11400
The most expensive play on the slate and it isn't by accident. He's taking a lot of shots in these playoffs. In the last two games against the Bulls he put up 23 and 24 shots respectively. The burden of the offense falls on him with Kyrie banged up and no love. It'll be interesting to see how Atlanta defends him, though they'll be mismatched almost anyway they go. My only hesitation with playing Lebron is the price as I think I'd rather play Steph and Harden together. But who would blame you for playing the King? He's putting this team on his back.

Jeff Teague - FD 7200 DK 7300
If Kyrie is hobbled even a little bit and the Hawks play Teague a full compliment of minutes then you are looking at a steal of a play here. He's been awesome in these playoffs when on the court and turning in a high volume of shots and usage. I'm expecting that to continue as he'll create matchup problems if Kyrie can't defend him. Our system thinks he's one of the best points/$ plays on the slate.

Tristan Thompson - FD 5400 DK 5800
Minutes, minutes, minutes. Rebounds, rebounds, rebounds. That's the story for Thompson who's filled in admirably for Love. He brings a totally different element to the game than Kevin in that he scraps down low for every missed shot. Dude grinds and the Cavs will need him every minute in this series. He's rebounding at a high rate and everything he can put in with points is a nice bonus.

Value Plays
Iman Shumpert - FD 4800 DK 5200
Just getting so much run that you almost need to play him at these prices. Shumpert does little bits of everything across the box score which is a huge boon considering his salary is close to the punt range on these short slates. His minutes are the key as Cleveland has played him 40 or above in closer games. That's tough to pass up on.

Paul Millsap - FD 8800 DK 8200
I'm adding him to the value plays and not the elite plays for a reason. I don't love his points/$ expectation, but you might be in a spot with saving at other positions that playing him is the prudent move. That's because the power forward position is a little thin on this slate and there will be some money to spend. Millsap rarely hits the stratosphere, but I do expect bigger minutes out of him.

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