Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/17/15

Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.

 

Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg - FD 8500 DK 9100
Strasburg and Kennedy! It's the "once bitten, twice shy" match-up of the century! I have to say, it's going to take an awfully steady hand to play either of these two on Sunday - but let me make a case for Strasburg. First of all - I'll direct you to this terrific article by Jeff Sullivan over at FanGraphs. He breaks down the fact that, indeed, something appears to be going on with Strasburg right now regarding his mechanics. That's all well and good, and it makes a lot of sense when you see how Sullivan breaks it down. But I think the case for Strasburg's demise is greatly exaggerated. First of all, no amount of mechanical change is going to cause a guy who's still striking out almost a guy an inning to have a .400 BABIP. You can't "earn" a BABIP like that. There might be good reasons it's higher than usual, but there's just no way he's a true-talent .400 BABIP guy. The truth, as always, lies between. And this might be a problem in terms of Strasburg's absolute value, but in daily fantasy baseball, we're primarily looking at his relative value. And Strasburg? He's pitching in the league's best pitcher's park, and facing an opponent in Ian Kennedy who's seen better days. On a day that lacks a lot of star-level pitching, I'll deploy Stras once again, if not totally confidently.

Scott Kazmir - FD 8800 DK 7300
Baseball is all at once so cool and so incredibly frustrating. That Kazmir could return from the dead to be a strike out an inning guy after 6-7 years of ineffectiveness just amazes me. But here we are - he's on his second straight year of pitching well, and our projection system would have you believe that it's to be trusted. And this match-up is really something else. He'll be pitching in the friendly confines of Oakland against the White Sox, who have managed the league's worst wOBA. Even better? The White Sox are particularly bad at the one thing Kazmir struggles with - drawing walks. They've accumulated the second fewest walks in the league vs. left handed pitching, and their free-swinging ways play right into Kazmir's hands. It'd be better if they weren't facing Samardzija, but even still, I like Kazmir quite a bit.

Chris Archer - FD 8900 DK 8000
My upside play of the day. Archer will bring his absurd year to date peripherals (58 Ks against 15 BBs in 48 IP) against a Minnesota team that's been just dominated by right handed pitching. Their wOBA vs. right handers (5th worst in the league) and their K% (3rd worst) speak for themselves. Sweetening the deal? Kyle Gibson. My man is back to his old tricks, pairing the league's second lowest K rate (damn you Jeremy Guthrie!) with a merely bad walk rate. Striking out 3.53 guys per 9 innings is literally as bad as it gets, and his ERA will come to call pretty soon. Here's to hoping that happens in this one.

An interesting punt: Noah Syndergaard. Projection systems love him this year, and the Brewers have struck out the 5th most against RHP this year.

 

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Catchers

Salvador Perez - FD 2300 DK 3700
Perez is a 25 year old catcher that has posted an .846 OPS against left handed pitching for his career, and you can get him for basically nothing. As of this writing he's knocked a double off of CC Sabathia, and in the fear of being called Captain Obvious, Chris Capuano is no CC Sabathia. I love Perez in every format as a way to escape the position cheaply.

Evan Gattis - FD 3100 DK 3400
It looked like Gattis was going to be a quintessential lefty killer, and he's turned more into a lefty hurter. Still, his .817 OPS against southpaws is a fine number, and the reason to play him over Perez is basically the upside and the match-up. Gattis' Achilles Heel is his strike-out total, and facing Zombie Mark Buehrle and his 8th worst in the league K rate in a great hitter's park could be a recipe for long balls.

Yasmani Grandal - FD 2900 DK 4600
Another interesting upside play, and I wavered back and forth in deciding between him or Gattis for the second slot. The only kicker here was the park. Grandal's been pretty great this year, but I do worry that a little bit of it is BABIP driven, and that we're heading toward a little regression. Still, his season line could take some regression and still make him an excellent value. His walk rate is fantastic, his K rate is manageable, and he's hitting for more power than he did at any level since A ball. Which is appropriate, because that's about the level that Kyle Kendrick is pitching at right now. I don't mind playing Grandal in any format.

 

 

First base

Joey Votto - FD 3800 DK 4600
Votto tops our first base rankings for the second night in a row. He's put up a 1k+ OPS against right handed pitching so far this year, and that certainly included better credentialed pitchers than Chris Heston. Heston's an interesting guy, because his intense ground-ball tendencies (54% GB rate) should serve him well in Cincinnati, but Votto's hard-hitting ways should find a way to make due.

Adrian Gonzalez - FD 4400 DK 5400
Our projection system doesn't love him on an absolute points per dollar basis, but I think you have to consider a Dodgers' stack today, and he'd be a responsible play there. He's managed a 1.200+ OPS against right handed pitching at home this season, and Kyle Kendrick's been making an insane amount of mistakes up in the zone this year. You might only have a few more chances to stack against Kendrick, so I'll be stacking while the stacking is good.

Jose Abreu - FD 3600 DK 4400
I wrote this about Abreu last night: Abreu remains priced very reasonably, even as his production has ticked upward as of rate. The reason people are sleeping on him is simple - he hasn't produced one of those eye-popping 10 fantasy point games in some time. But he's been steady, averaging nearly 3 fantasy points per game since May 5th. And really, he's a very similar guy this season to who he was last year, minus .50 points of BABIP. Now that's pretty significant. If he's a .930 OPS guy and not a .980 OPS guy, that's a material difference. But it doesn't make him a $3,500 player. That's what our projection system sees here - straight price value.

Nothing has changed. Kazmir is pretty similar to Chavez, but actually pitches from the favorable side of Abreu's platoon. Still a good play on a pts/$ basis.

Also considered: Lucas Duda, Al Pujols.

 

Second base

Robinson Cano - FD 3200 DK 4100
I swear that I'm not just copy/pasting the picks from last night, but this will happen when teams play in the same parks against similar types of pitchers. Tonight, Cano goes up against Steven Wright, who is a journeyman/never-has-been converted bullpen guy with little in the way of stuff or command. It almost feels mean writing that. I'm sure he's an interesting person, and I admire his dedication. It must be really cool to be pitching in the majors after 30 years of working toward that goal. But the man just isn't qualified. Seattle's lefty heavy lineup should put a bruising on he who has walked more guys than he's struck out so far this year, and Cano should be front and center in the onslaught.

Chase Utley - FD 2500 DK 3400
Hello, nightly inclusion Chase Utley! As of this writing, Utley just singled home a run, already justifying last night's pick of him. That's the thing with minimum priced guys like this - they have to do basically nothing to get you home on a points per dollar basis. And tonight, Utley's match-up only gets better. Batting practice pitcher Josh Collmenter comes to town, and he'll be dealing right handed fastballs that have only managed to strike out 21 guys in 41 innings pitched this year. In a homer-friendly park like Philly, that has potential disaster written all over it. I'll keep grabbing Utley until his .110 BABIP climbs to normal levels and his price climbs along with it.

Dustin Pedroia - FD 2800 DK 3600
Pedroia's basically been platoon neutral this season, and has managed a .353 wOBA in spite of a BABIP about 25 points below his established career levels. Hitting in Seattle is no picnic, but James Paxton just hasn't turned into the ace level pitcher that some have projected just yet. His control problems could get him into big trouble with the patient Boston lineup, and Pedroia's counting stat potential in this game should benefit from the left-handers around him who will get a boost.

Also considered: Neil Walker.

 

Shortstop

Brad Miller - FD 2500 DK 3400
Miller hit a home run off of Rick Porcello moments ago, and has our projection system feeling pretty good about itself! Okay, you've got me - the system has no feelings. It's a coldhearted, calculating machine, hell-bent only on world domination. But it DOES have me feeling pretty good. It looked like it'd be another lost season for Miller, but in the last week, he's cleaned up his season line with 4 doubles and 2 homers. And when you adjust for what he does against righties, it starts to look even better. Miller has been legitimately fantastic against northpaws this season, posting an .864 OPS. He won't be this cheap for long, so I'm certainly grabbing him against the Steven Wrights of the world whenever I can.

Brandon Crawford - FD 2400 DK 3700
Another DFSR pick from last night, Crawford delivered everything we'd hoped for and more, making me only slightly mad that I played Miller over him outside of Giants' stacks. DeSclafani is another smoke and mirrors right hander, and as I wrote last night, Crawford's breakout looks legit. Let's roll it back in another night in a greater hitters' park.

Erick Aybar - FD 2500 DK 3700
I believe this is the first Angel I'm mentioning here, but it won't be the last. The reason? Mike Wright. While Wright features a high 90s fastball, he doesn't do a whole lot else, and he's frequently been listed at the back end of the Orioles' top ten prospect lists. If you're not familiar with lists like those, a ranking like that usually means the guy has little upside or is really far away. Mike Wright would be the former. His speedy fastball shouldn't do much here, and Aybar is very reasonably priced in a game where the Angels could chase Wright early.

I'm going cheap, but you could play Tulo against Michael Bolsinger and no one would mock you on Twitter.
 

Third base

Evan Longoria - FD 3300 DK 4400
So Longoria is a pretty big platoon split guy, but I'll probably play him anyway. Why? Kyle Gibson. Gibson's aforementioned K rate (3.53/9!!) has meant that he's been nearly the same against both right handed and left handed hitting. Which is to say, he's mostly just not very good. Like a lot of players, taking Ks of the table means Longoria's upside goes through the roof. Love him today for any format.

Kyle Seager - FD 3000 DK 3800
Wrote this about Seager last night:
If Seager's BABIP was what it was last season (and also his career norms), he'd be having a better season than he did last year from an OPS perspective. And last year, Seager was a great value on these prices. With 25 homers and 7 steals (and much of that coming at home against right handed pitching - which is what he'll have in this game), Seager's actually got sneaky upside for a relatively no name guy. He hits behind some fine hitters, and could certainly put up some great numbers here.

What's changed tonight? Well, he's actually facing a worse pitcher. Like I've already written above, I think Steven Wright gets chased early here, and Seager should be in the mix.

Chase Headley - FD 2400 DK 3700
Our projection system loved Chase Headley in last night's contest, and I omitted him based on my own eyeball test. Woops. Headley blasted a three run homer, justifying these bargain prices and then some. Don't be spooked by Volquez, by the way. The now worn down pedigree shouldn't play as much a role in what he's actually done this year, which is serve up some league average peripherals on the way to a better than league average ERA. That'll balance out soon enough.

Also considered: Lonnie Chisenhall. You guys!! It's a Nick Martinez day!

 

Outfield

Mike Trout - FD 5100 DK 5300
Kole Calhoun - FD 3100 DK 4300
Like I wrote about Aybar above - this is basically just the projection system declaring Mike Wright dead on arrival. Either of these guys would be fine parts of any Angels' stack. Our system likes Calhoun and his positive platoon split on a points per dollar basis, but Wright is the kind of guy Trout eats for lunch, leaving him with plenty of upside.

Brandon Moss - FD 3400 DK 4600
If our system liked Moss against Lewis in Texas on Saturday, you can bet your sweet behind that it likes them against Nick Martinez on Sunday. While I'm bracing myself for the inevitable taunting tweets tomorrow when Martinez pulls another BS game out of his hat, I'm logically ready for him to get blown up here. The man strikes out fewer than 4 batters per 9 innings pitched. That's awful. Moss' OPS is .60 points higher against right handed pitching, and this is a great hitters' park. Play him again.

Carlos Gonzalez - FD 3100 DK 4000
I've hesitated to give you Cargo recently because he'd just looked so damned bad, but after three productive games in a row, it seems like it'd be foolish to ignore him any longer. Gonzalez now has 2 homers in his last three games, and even sprinkled in a steal in between. The BABIP was always unlucky this season - his .234 number is at least 50 points off where it should be by the end of the season, but the big concern was the ISO. If he's hitting homers again, those concerns should be gone. Mike Bolsinger was basically an average prospect who couldn't break through with the D-Backs before getting this shot with the Dodgers, and you shouldn't let the smooth ERA fool you. He's a candidate to be sent down before the All-Star break.

Curtis Granderson - FD 2800 DK 3600
The Grandy Man! Another graduate of last night's picks that went yard, who gets an even better match-up today. Granderson's career has been plagued by his inability to hit left handers, and those trends have gotten even worse as he's gotten older. The good news? That actually makes him more affordable, and Wily Peralta throws with his right hand. Peralta's K rate has been declining over the years, and now sits at a career worst 5.6/9. Now, his groundball rate helps limit the damage from his lack of Ks to some degree, but Granderson's upper-cut swing could still get a hold of one.

Also considered: Jorge Soler, Angel Pagan.

The bargain bin: Jay Bruce once again after a homer last night, Melky Cabrera, Carlos Beltran.

 

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