ScoreStreak MLB Plays 5/15/15

Have you tried ScoreStreak yet? Their model is simple. Choose nine players in three different categories: Total Bases, Hits and Strikeouts. Tier them for more points and that's it. Their system is a reprieve from the nightmares of salary caps and fitting those last extra dollars. They have fantastic deposit bonuses and it's super easy to get signed up. Check them out below. And we'll be posting ScoreStreak picks every Friday.

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Total Bases

Mike Trout
It might seem like you will always just choose the biggest hitters to fill in the total bases categories, but in baseball there are always a million considerations. Ballparks, opposing pitchers, batters splits and more come into play. That being said, sometimes just setting it and forgetting it is the way to go. That's what I'm doing with Trout today. Though he's actually a reverse splits guy, Trout is still fantastic against lefties where he's had an OPS over .900 against that split over the last season to go with a .400 wOBA. I don't need to go crazy with the superlatives here. We won't play him everyday, but the matchup Wei-Yin Chen offers some upside for Trout.

Adrian Gonzalez
Has started this season like he wants to end the year with the MVP trophy. Gonzalez has been about as good as it gets with an OPS over 1.100 and a totally nuts .336 ISO. I don't think it's sustainable (and neither does our projection system) but it doesn't mean he falls off some cliff. There are a lot of parts of this success that are very real. In a great spot today against Eddie Butler who walks as many as he strikes out and is bad at home and on the road. Love Gonzalez today because of the contact rate and the matchup.

Hits

Norichika Aoki
Angel Pagan
Really liking both of these guys in the hits category. To start, they are going in a fantastic hitter's park in Great American Ballpark. That alone boosts some of their offensive expectation. They are facing Jason Marquis who's basically the definition of league average. But what really makes these guys solid plays in this category is that contact is the name of each of their games. They wrap out singles and doubles like nobody's business. Pagan and Aoki have a 10.3% and 9.6$ K rate against righties over the last season plus and walk rates even lower. That means contact all over the place and when you are forecasting hits, that's the number one thing to look for. Will they make contact enough to give themselves a chance for one hit, or multiple hits? The latter is a tough nut to crack in DFS, put considering their slots in the lineup (Aoki especially in the leadoff position) you are in good shape with these guys.

Strikeouts

Clayton Kershaw
Ever heard of him? Not going to surprise anyone with this pick. Kershaw is the best arm on any slate he pitches and this one he's the best by an absolute landslide. Don't be fooled by the higher-than-usual ERA, Kershaw has been unlucky this season and his peripherals are right in line with his career averages. So is his xFIP. He's striking out more than ten batters per nine and walking around two. Facing the Rockies away from Coors has him at a solid K expectation and though 9 K's is a tough plateau to reach, I'm not hesitating with him today.

Madison Bumgarner
This one isn't actually a lock for me, but I will put him in the seven K slot. Many of the other pitchers on this slate aren't big K guys (Pineda's 16 K outing aside). Bumgarner is the definition of Steady Eddie. He does the same exact thing every season. The K's are about one per inning, the walks are around two per nine and the ERA is right around three. It's uncanny. The ballpark scares me a little here, and some of the Reds can hit righty pitching. He's right at the cutoff point in our system for seven K's but I think you can pull the trigger.

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