Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 5/15/15

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Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards

Analysis
At the end of game four, Paul Pierce hit a bank shot to win the game. When asked after the game if he called “bank” he responded, “No, I called game.” I thought this was such an amazingly balls-y quote. Fast forward to game five when he hits a go ahead three with eight seconds left and supposedly turns the Atlanta bench and called, “Series!”. Woops. The Wiz broke down in front of the basket on Atlanta’s last possession, allowing for an easy Al Horford layup to win the game for the Hawks. The Hawks are now a game away from advancing with the series shifting to DC.

This all did overshadow, to some degree, just how amazing it is that John Wall was able to return and play in game five. With his entire hand seemingly broken he played 37 minutes and shot decently from the floor. The series isn’t over by any stretch as Washington can more than hang with this team. Should be an interesting game six.

Top Plays:

Bradley Beal - FD 7700 DK 8200
Unless everything breaks down, Beal seems like a lock for 40+ FanDuel points these days. On $7,700 salary? That means he's got to be in your lineup. With Wall still ailing, Beal handled the ball a ton, and it's clear that Korver and the Hawks can't totally figure him out. He's a lock in all formats for me once again.

Al Horford - FD 7900 DK 8200
Gasol's been very consistent for Memphis so far this post season, but if you want to dance with some upside? Consider Horford. He now has two 49+ fantasy point games in this series, and took over on the defensive end in game 5. The man isn't messing around, and he's clearly the class of the match-up in the paint. I think he's a safe play in any format.

I think I'm giving up on Jeff Teague.
Teague was positively flustered by Wall's max-effort defense in game 5, netting just 15 fantasy points with a ridiculous 7 turn overs. The question will be - which Teague do you believe in? It certainly looks like the Teague we saw in game 4 was decidedly because of Wall's absence, and if Wall is going to focus more on defense with his banged up hand, Teague could lay another egg in game 6.

Value Plays:

Paul Pierce - FD 4900 DK 5500
Otto Porter - FD 5100 DK 5800
Neither Porter nor Pierce lit the world on fire in game 5, but our projection system is not dissuaded. Why? Minutes, Daniel San. Neither is priced according to the minutes they are getting this post season, and this raises the floor of each on a points per dollar basis considerably. If our system had to pick one, it'd go Porter - but you could argue that he has more upside to Pierce's higher floor.

Nene Hilario - FD 4000 DK 4500
Nene's locked in to about 29-31 minutes in this series, and he's averaged 27 fantasy points - or 6.75x points per dollar on this price - in his last three games. He's clearly part of Washington's plan in this series, and that means he's a good bet to be a part of my plans on these non-starter prices as well.

Dennis Schroder - FD 4400 DK 4300
Shroder took a step backwards in terms of fantasy performance in game 5, but most of that was due to a random 3/12 performance from the field. He still handled the ball almost as much as he did when he was busy posting 6.5x points per dollar on these prices in the two games prior. Our projection system figures he's a great play on even 23-25 minutes, so it looks like there's both safety and upside in playing him at these prices as long as the Hawks continue to use him as a disruptive change of pace guy.

Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies

Analysis
After watching these last two games, it’s hard to imagine why we ever thought the Grizzlies had a chance in this series. But that’s basketball for you. Things turn on a dime and the narrative can suddenly change. The Grizzlies were dealt a blow when it was announced Tony Allen wouldn’t play, as he’d locked up Klay Thompson for long stretches over the course of the series. But that would maybe have only stemmed the tide of threes the Warriors rained down on Memphis. They shot 14-30 from beyond the arc and just had wide open look after wide open look. If anything, this game seemed like even more of a blowout than the 20 point spread would suggest, considering GSW throttled back late.

With the series shifting back to Memphis for game six, the Grizzlies are in a must win situation as Steph Curry and company can close them out here. Suspect Memphis comes out energized in front of the home crowd. But if the Warriors are going to shoot anything close to what they did in game five then I really don’t see how Memphis keeps pace.

Elite Plays
Stephen Curry - FD 10100 DK 10400
The problem with Steph last game, from a fantasy perspective, is the Warriors simply didn’t need him on the court for the entire game. Such is the case with NBA blowouts. When the game is over in the fourth, the starters rest. That was the thing with the Warriors during the regular season in that they so often had backups playing down the stretch. For me though, it’s not a reason to fade Curry on these slates. He still has the highest upside of any player and I’ll happily roster him going forward.

Zach Randolph - FD 7200 DK 7600
If he works down low he definitely presents matchup problems for the Warriors. The problem in the last two games for Z-Bo is that Memphis hasn't been afforded the opportunity to play the methodical, grind-it-out offense they want. And when that happens, he doesn't see the ball in the post enough. I'm playing him at power forward no matter what because I think he's the safest guy, but it isn't a lock.

Value Plays
Harrison Barnes - FD 4300 DK 4800
Won't break it out of the box for you, but they have been finding him some open looks in the offense. Most of Barnes' value comes from his scoring so that needs to be there. And that means corner threes. They've been getting him the ball in recent games, so look for it to continue tonight.

Courtney Lee - FD 3800 DK 4700
There's always a chance he sees enough looks from beyond the arc (and makes them) to make him a value play. But know that these Grizz are weird and offensively challenged in some respects. Very much a price play and little else.
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